Mack’s Morning Report - 5-15-15 – June Draft, 3 Fastballs, May, Draft Shortstops

Good morning.


I had planned to write about much more this morning, but the Chicago series took the starch out of me, so let's just press on together...

We’re getting closer every day to the June draft. The Mets pick #53, #88, #119, #149, and then every 30^th pick through the 40^th round.

Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs spelled it out pretty simply:

I’ve written many times in the past eight months that this draft class is pretty weak and that, combined with the bonus pools that limit each team’s draft spending, will make for an unpredictable draft day filled with below-slot deals.

My guess is that the Mets are going to target high school players rather than the high cost of college juniors. They are dead last (30^th) in bonus pool money, at $3,587,800 for all 39 picks.

Some perfect examples of the kind of guys that Sandy & Company could choose are:

          2011 21st round pick – P John Gant – Wiregrass Ranch (FL) HS

2012 12^th round pick – P Rob Whelan – Haines City (FL) H.S.

2013 10^th round pick – SS Luis Guillorme – Coral Springs (FL) HS

2014 – 3^rd round pick – SS Milton Ramos – American Heritage (FL) HS

Jeff Sullivan wrote in his weekly http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-5815/ about how future young pitchers may turn to using three different fastballs as their arsenal:

I think, generally, a young pitcher just thinks of a fastball as a fastball, and when you have a live arm all you care about is velocity and blowing the ball right by guys. Lesser velocity forces creativity. Pitchers come up being told they need 3 or 4 pitches, and they think of the fastball as 1. In truth, it can be 2, or 3. But I don’t think fastballs are used with sufficient versatility with younger guys

I really do think this could be part of the next wave. You take a talented young arm, you teach him how to throw a four-seamer and a two-seamer, and you teach him that he doesn’t have to go 100% with every delivery. Say a guy can top out at 97. Have him throw a four-seamer at 94 and a two-seamer at 91. That guy can be successful, with even mediocre secondary stuff

        Mack – Sully seems to be touching on something very important here.

        We know that deception is the key to success when it comes to major league pitching. Starters need at least three effective pitchers to keep the opponent batter confused. Relievers need two.

And then there was Mariano Rivera. Was that one pitch or one pitch with five or six endings?

Nobody on the Mets seems to be mixing up fastball speeds better than Bartolo Colon is doing this year and, if you can throw three or four pitchers, in an eight to 10 mile per hour range… and all using the same arm and release angle… well, you will be a success at this game.

Forget teaching your nephews or grandchildren how to throw a curve. Get them to work on their fast ball with different speeds. Trust me. This is going to be the future of this game.

May – There are 16 more games to play in May… 13 are at CitiField… a three game series at home begins tonight vs. the Brewers, then four at home vs. the Cardinals, three away in the Steel City, three back home against the Phillies, and lastly, three vs. the Marlins.

          The Marlins and Pirates represent two teams that the Mets could be battling all season to stay ahead of for a wild card slot, so it is vitally important for the Mets to, at least, win these two series. I’ve already conceded the NL-Central title to the Cards and I’ve written off both the Phillies and Brewers as either pennant or wild card contenders.

          The Nats seem far more tested… 14 games of which nine are away… three in San Diego, two at home against the Yankees, them three more at home against the Phillies followed by six road games against the Cubs and Reds.

          Atlanta has 16 more games in May of which only six (Tampa Bay – 2x, Milwaukee – 4x) are at home. The rest (3x Marlins, 3x Dodgers, 4x Giants) are away.

          And lastly (because who really cares how many games the Phillies have left), Miami has 16 games left, 10 of which (3x – Braves, 4x Arizona, 3x Baltimore) are at home. The six away games are three against both the Pirates and the Mets.

Matt Garrioch http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/5/10/8576317/2015-mlb-draft-shortstops listed the following players as the top shortstops available in the 2015 draft:

Brendan Rodgers HS    HS    Florida State

Alex Bregman      College       JR     Louisiana State

Dansby Swanson College       JR     Vanderbilt

Kyler Murray        HS    HS    Texas A&M

Ryan Mountcastle          HS    HS    UCF

Kevin Newman     College       JR     Arizona

Jalen Miller               HS         HS    Clemson

Richie Martin       College       JR     Florida

Nick Shumpert     HS    HS    Kentucky

John Aiello HS    HS    Wake Forest

Mikey White         College       JR     Alabama

Kyle Holder          College                  San Diego

Cadyn Grenier     HS    HS    Oregon State

Kody Clemens      HS    HS    Texas

C.J. Hinojosa       College       JR     Texas

John Cresto              HS         HS    Santa Clara

Travis Blankenhorn      HS    HS    Kentucky

Jose Vizcaino       College       JR     Santa Clara

Blake Trahan      College       JR     Louisiana-Lafayette

Brendon Davis     HS    HS    Cal State Fullerton

Kyle Datres           HS    HS    North Carolina

Daniel Pinero       College       SO     Virginia

Kevin Kramer       College       SR     UCLA

Drew Jackson      College       JR     Stanford

David Fletcher     College       SO     Loyola Marymount

We’ve just written this past weekend about the deep talent the Mets have, at this position, in their organization. Should the Mets continue to draft some of these guys until they get it right or should they turn to the other eight positions every team puts on the field?


For those of you like me that are always looking for a way to get Troy Tulowitzki on this team, we may be getting close to when Colorado starts considering cleaning house again. They already are dead last in their division and what a perfect time this would be to offer them 3-4 lower level prospects (from a pool of Amed Rosario, Luis Guillorme, Milton Ramos, Casey Meisner, Brandon Nimmo, Rob Whelan)



Travis de'Arnaud on Jacob deGrom: - 

      Jake is one of the most laid back guys you'll ever meet. I asked him about his           honeymoon this off-season and he tells me he did nothing. And I belive him. He      probably did nothing."

This was written by Chris Mitchell the morning before Noah Syndergaard’s debut in Chicago:

Pretty much any way you slice it, Syndergaard’s future looks bright. His 6-5 frame and excellent stuff are enough to get scouts on board, and he has the minor-league track record to back up his physical gifts. Plus, based on his utter dominance in his five Triple-A starts this year — he’s pitched to a 1.82 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate — he looks more than ready to contribute right now. Steamer anticipates a 3.50 ERA for Syndergaard for the remainder of the season, which is a better forecast than every Mets starter not named Matt Harvey. Based on his minor-league performance, Syndergaard will almost certainly help the Mets in 2015; and barring injury, he stands a good chance of holding down a spot in their rotation for years to come.

I agree with Chris. I don’t think that Syndergaard is going anywhere.