Paul Articulates – The front office dilemma

The New York Mets have made it very difficult on their front office this year. By underperforming for a majority of the early season, then sprinting back into contention for a wild card berth, the team has put the front office in the unenviable position of having to choose between a core rebuild of this team and a desperate search for pieces that will hold this team together for a playoff run.

You have heard from many of us at Mack’s Mets about our opinions on how to move forward.  From “blowing it up” to adding a few arms, the approaches have filled the spectrum of choices.  David Stearns is probably thinking, “Boy it wasn’t this hard in Milwaukee”.  The unfortunate reality is that you really can’t build the team and keep the fans happy at the same time.  Fans have latched on to the latest winning streak as hope for a relevant season and they want to squeeze every win possible from this roster.  The numbers guys know that the current streak is an anomaly that doesn’t fit with the models so they are expecting the team to drop back to the .438 winning percentage that is the most probable outcome.

So with the fan base in one ear and the data scientists in the other, Stearns must choose a path forward.  Tough choices are on the way.  After a lost season in 2023, and the one-and-done disappointment of an otherwise successful 2022 season, do you doom the fan base to another post-season of watching someone else’s team celebrate, or do you provide instant gratification by squeezing out 10 more wins this season at the cost of not winning a championship for at least a few more?

So far the approach has been to “wait and see”. As Tom pointed out yesterday, the Mets are facing the 7th easiest schedule in baseball for the next 90 games, so the chances for making the last wild card position seem fairly good.  The way the team is playing, they could be in a playoff position rather than looking up at one within the next four weeks when decision time is upon us.  That only makes it harder because a wild card game is about the best we can expect.  I don’t see a run at the Phillies for a division title or a run at the Dodgers for a NL pennant as very likely.  So it is really about a game or two in the playoffs.  How much would you sacrifice for that?

There are so many teams in contention right now that it is also unlikely that there will be a great number of sellers when the trade deadline approaches.  That means less quality players available, and the ones that are will command a very high price.  You are not going to find some promising young starting pitcher with 3 years of team control available.  You are more likely to find an overpriced aging veteran with a short duration until free agency.  The Mets have tried that path with the Scherzers and Verlanders in the past and it has not gone well.  I can’t see them trying that tactic again.

The strategic vision for this team is to build a sustainable winner, which has to be based upon a youthful roster to achieve sustainability.  That does not exclude certain core players that will provide stability, so expect that the current stars under extended contracts like Francisco Lindor, Edwin Diaz, and Brandon Nimmo will still be here.  The high potential players like Senga, Alvarez, Mauricio, and Vientos will be retained.  I still believe that the Mets will go all-in on Pete Alonso and he will want to stay in New York.  But the rest of the aging stars are going to be made available.  JD Martinez, Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte, and a handful of the current starters and bullpen pitchers are going to be open for bids.  That does not mean that they will all go.  If offers are not to the benefit of this team’s future growth, then they will not be accepted.  But if my prediction is correct, there will be many more buyers than sellers, and the offers will be pretty sweet.

I don’t envy the front office guys, because the decisions will be tough, and the fans will not be pleased in the short term.  Baseball is a business first and foremost, so the guys that get paid to run the business have to make the hard choices.  I just hope they really do benefit this team because the fan base that has stuck with this team through so many difficult years really deserves a winner.

Tom Brennan: Salient Facts and Opinions re: Red-Hot Mets

 NY Mets Are Adding Swagger to Their Walk 

(PC - Ed Delany)  

Through Tuesday:

Hottest team in baseball, winners of 11 of 13? METS!

Winners of 7 straight.

Reid Garrett is 7-2, 55 Ks in 35 IP. We all knew he’d be great.

Edwin Diaz a 9 pitch save. Economical.

Down 4 runs mid-game on Tuesday…My first thought was…

“It’s just four runs. Piece of cake. After all, we’re playing on the road, where we love it.”

So they naturally score 5 unanswered. And win.

Hitters on the road are banging and bashing like it’s 2006 again.

Vientos and Alvarez asked, “You STILL doubting us? Just STOP, please!”

They went out and collected 12 hits between them in 2 games.  Twelve.

.317 and .269, respectively.

Ohtani is .316/.388/.608. Vientos is .317/.375/.554 (112 PAs).

No, Vientos is not Ohtani. 

But please…stop fretting about Mark. It is OK to smile.

Cubs are coming up, winners of 4 of 10. Under .500. 

Forgive them if Mets’ hitters are carrying towels around to wipe off the drool. A road series in a hitters’ park.

Ten runs a game? Why not. These are the Road Mauler Mets.

Mets lead baseball in road hitting through Tuesday…

.279/.342/.445, and 5.8 runs per game.

Mets at home are .221/.300/.363.

Perspective? .221 is 28th. They are also 28th in runs at home per game, a mere 27 slots behind the road squad.

Might Citi Field dimensions be a negative factor? Might they be adjustable?

Anyway…

What’s going right? 

The entire roster - except McNeil, Taylor, and Stewart.

What’s not going right?

McNeil, Taylor, and Stewart.

They are hitting .216 in 480 at bats, with 10 HRs.  

Jeff and Tyrone’s OBPs are under .290.

Everything else on the roster is cool, actually. Mendoza is clearly great.

2B Pablo Reyes reminded me there are replacement parts available for those 3 under-performersin the Syracuse warehouse. 

You see, Pablo went 5 for 5 with 6 RBIs on Tuesday, and is hitting .365/.459/.603 in AAA in 19 games.

Rhylan Thomas in the Syracuse outfield in 5 for 9, with a single, 2 doubles and 2 HRs in his last two games.  Dude can hit. .310/.385/.423 in 2023 and 2024 in the minors.

Baty is still hanging out there…and hitting.

Luke Ritter is a HR-generating machine.

Amazon provides same day delivery.

Mets Lost 5-3 after I wrote this. Naturally.

JEFF MCNEIL AND JD DAVIS

The former Met, JD Davis, was DFA’d by Oakland this week. 

While hitting fairly well lately, he had just 5 RBIs.  

He was on a $2.5 million, one year deal.

Jeff McNeil has played just as badly this year, but has not been DFA’d. 

Why not? He is owed a ton of money still. 

Roughly $40 million. 

If he was owed $2.5 million instead, like JD, would he be DFA’d?

There are answers for the dilemma of Jeff McNeil if his current extended malaise proves to be incurable:  

IGLESIAS.  OR PABLO. 

Or Baty. Or Ritter.

R.I.P. WILLIE MAYS

How geat a hitter was the Say Hey Kid? Consider this:

Willie had a .565 slugging % in Candlestick and Forbes, two of the toughest parks for sluggers ever. How great is that? 

And, despite his playing for the Mets in Shea at the very end, his slug % in Shea was still a stunning .757 in 130 games. It was probably 1.000 prior to his two Mets’ seasons in his 40s. Still, in his final year, in 37 Shea games, he slugged .588. 

Extraordinary is too weak a word.

P.S.

Through Tuesday, Syracuse led the International League with 5.85 runs per game, in homers with 103, and is 43-26. 34-17 in their last 51. Last year, that Syracuse squad finished 61-85.

Great hitting (and decent pitching) leads to much winning.

The 2024 Chicago White Sox are 20-54. My guess is Syracuse is a better team.

P.P.S.

If you could only pick one…

Which Mets minors player below AA has the best chance of seeing time with the Mets in late 2025?

21 y/o OF Nick Morabito. 

In Brooklyn and St Lucie this season, he is hitting .333/.447./432 in 57 games with 32 steals.

LOTS of guys in front of him, but you make way for true talent.

He better be headed to AA right after the ASB. That would keep him on pace with Rhylan Thomas’ pace last year. Thomas hit well in A, High A, and AA last season and is now doing well in AAA.

Morabito is faster than Thomas, likely has more power, but fans a little but more.

P.P.P.S.

Oddest hitting line ever?

Nolan McLean has 9 doubles and 7 HRs in 126 at bats this year. Excellent. 

But he also has fanned 72 times in 126 at bats.

Good thing he is primarily a fine pitcher.

Elsewhere, Suarez, Gervase and Walker all pitched well, and Baty homered again. Rowdey Jordan had 3 hits, including a grand salami.

Roster changes often occur after a road trip. Will Baty be coming back?

Tom Brennan: Good News - Remaining Schedule Favors the Mets

Man, that downhill skiing sure looks sweet!

How steep a hill do the Mets have to climb?  

Not nearly as steep as the Braves and Phillies, it appears.

Forget climbing.  Perhaps the hill course is...downhill??

Skiing is much easier going downhill than uphill, they tell me.

According to the site on the link, the Mets have the 24th toughest remaining schedule.  Or, the 7th easiest. Which also comes pretty darned close to guaranteeing a Wild Card spot.  (How do you say, PLAYOFFS!)

https://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/strength-of-schedule.php#google_vig

The Braves and Phillies have the 10th and 11th toughest schedules. 

More reasons for Mets optimism, I'd say.  

Factor that in to your assessments, would be my recommendation.

And...don't worry, be happy.

Reese Kaplan -- Breathe Deeply and Reconsider the Roster Needs

As we approach midweek in mid June the Mets are approaching an important crossroads.  As of close of business on Monday they find themselves a single game behind the Washington Nationals ahead of them in the division.  That forward progress is certainly doable within 2-3 games. 

What’s even more surprising is that they are now 5.5 games behind the once formidable Atlanta Braves who currently trail the first place Philadelphia Phillies by 8 games.  A 5.5 game deficit is also not insurmountable and a few hot weeks by the Mets coinciding with cold weeks by Fulton County’s no-longer finest could bridge that difference as well.

The other number that jumps out at you is the team record.  They are no longer more than a double digit figure below a .500 record.  After beating the Rangers soundly the Mets now stand 3 games under a season-long do-over with a record of 34-37.  Once they manage to achieve a balanced .500 record a lot of the anguish and gastric distress from having failed in the field, on the mount and at the plate will have flown out the nearest window.

Now let’s not get ahead of ourselves with these performance metrics.  A .500 record, for example, is a sign of great progress but it also signifies you are equally likely to lose a game as you are to win one.  It’s not a cause for celebration but having endured an entire 2023 season without anything to praise, it shows that the direction envisioned is actually starting to happen. 

The more significant numbers to focus on as a fan are the won-loss records of the immediately adjacent Washington Nationals as well as the once untouchable Atlanta Braves.  Right now if they Mets set immediate and reachable goals of capturing the 2nd place position in the National League East then they have a great opportunity to make something of heretofore nothing in the 2024 season.

Of course, getting to the playoffs would be everyone’s not-so-hidden fantasy, but most folks would be content with baby steps in the right direction.  No one is going to capture the Phillies, so the best the Mets could hope for is second place an entry into the Wild  Card round in October.  If that happens, then the first years of David Stearns and Carlos Mendoza will have exceeded nearly everyone’s expectations. 

There are still quite a few ifs to consider and a basic realization that a surprisingly improved 2024 team does not portend itself to repeat in 2025 with the same cast of characters.  We’ve already gone over who is expendable, who is on a short term expiring contract and who might have to be paid down to make them appealing to other ballcllubs.  No, now the question becomes what is it that the Mets need if a modest, moderate or wholesale sell off occurs in July. 

It would seem that going forward the Mets have deficits in the outfield.  Some of the more highly regarded minor leaguers are not likely ready to make the leap to The Show after slow starts and lingering injuries curtailed their numbers for this year.  Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte are both under contract for next year but Marte’s resurgence with his bat and decline with his glove suggest that trading him away a year before his contract ends after 2025 rather than hoping for a 4th year flourish. 

On the infield it is a bit busier assuming Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos and Francisco Alavarez are part of the core.  Throw in Ronny Mauricio for one of the open slots at second or third and make an eventual decision on Brett Baty’s immediate future and it would appear that infielders are not the highest priority. 

Starting pitching is most definitely an area where the Mets need improvement.  Someday Kodai Senga returns.  David Peterson and Tylor Megill are here already.  Jose Quintana is a free agent and Sean Manaea has an opt-out which he’ll likely exercise if he can get his slightly-above 4.00 ERA down under.  Jose Butto and Christian Scott are the next arms to consider and it’s possible they could fulfill the roles of the free-agents-to-be, but after Senga that rotation is a bit shaky and prone to some unpredictability.

The one name not yet mentioned is defacto ace Luis Severino who has put together a very fine 2024 season after no one knew what to expect given his horrific 2023.  The Mets either can make a gesture towards a contract extension now while they have the exclusive right to do so, or they can trade him away for a fairly significant return if they feel he will just walk away anyway.

The bullpen is the other area where the Mets truly need to rebuild.  While it may be premature to declare it a 100% certainty, the fact is that it sure felt good to see the last few appearances by closer Edwin Diaz.  After that it’s a big washout with other players needing contract extensions as they are out of options or they are set to become free agents.  The exceptions would appear to be Dedniel Nunez and Syracuse Met Danny Young.  That’s a whole lot of empty bullpen seats for next season. 

So if I’m David Stearns entertaining who or what I need to make some midyear trades, it would appear that outfielders, young starting pitchers and young relievers are at the top of the list.  The not-very-respectable bench could use some reinforcements but other than lost cause deals like Jose Quintana you wouldn't expect to obtain those types of pieces at this juncture.  They can wait until the off season.  For now it's who will fill the primary outfielder and pitching roles moving forward.

Brennan: Blow Out & Perfecto, in One Game; Mighty Mets Maulers; DJs and JDs

The DSL Season Is Sometimes Remarkable

 

The two Mets DSL teams, both 4-6 after Monday’s game, brought us both a blow out AND a perfect game on Monday.

In a 7 inning game, Mets Blue beat Mets Orange, 13-0.

In the error-free game, Jose Guevara threw 6 perfect innings and fanned 10. The7th inning was pitched by another Jose, named Gomez.

Jose Guevara now has 20 Ks in 11.1 innings, with just 4 hits allowed.  

Impressive career start in 2024 for the 19 year old righty.

The Blue team, getting up just 6 innings since they were the home team, hit 2 HRs among its 13 hits, with 5 BBs, a HBP, and left 6 on base.

Something wild and wonderful happens every day.

Even wilder, when we were looking into possibly buying a property last year (we didn’t), the mortgage broker’s name?

Jose Guevara.

MIGHTY METS MAULERS

Citi Field hitting malaise hangs over this team.  

On the road, they are juggernauts:

30 road games, 5.8 runs per game, and hitting a robust .279.  

Their .279 road average and .342 OBP are the highest in the MLB.

The Mets are LEADING THE MAJORS in runs per game on the road.

At home? Well, if you read my articles regularly, you probably know.

Just 3.8 runs per game in 41 home games, 15th highest in total runs at home. 

BUT…total runs scored are not a good indicator.  

They don’t factor in how many games each team has played. 

The Mets have played 12 more home games than the Guardians.

Runs per game is the real factor. 

And in that, they are tied for 29th at home.

At home, hitting .221, or 58 points lower than on the road. FIFTY EIGHT!

Why?

It’s Citi Field, the House of Illusion, that makes the Mets hitters look so-so offensively, when they are assuredly not. 

Citi Field depresses hitters’ results. Year in, year out.

Most fans look at the players’ overall numbers only, and judge accordingly. And reach the wrong conclusion….

You see….the Mets?  They are maulers.

If the fences are not moved in, can the Mets play all 162 games on the road? They hit so much better away from the Queens swamp.

The DJ .180’s

Sound like a cool name for a band.

DJ LeMahieu is hitting .188.

DJ Stewart is hitting .184.

DJ HERZ of the Nationals leads the MLB DJ’s with a 3.77 ERA.

None, of course, are JD Martinez, who is far better than those 3, and also JD Davis, who has just 5 RBIs in 135 PAs for Oakland.

SAVAGE VIEWS – DO YOU SEE WHAT I SEE?

What a difference a week makes – 8 days of bliss to paraphrase Diana Washington. 

A little more than a week ago we were ready to write off the season although we were facing the supposedly easy part of the schedule with the Marlins and Padres coming in. Then we lost the first game to the Marlins and it looked like the fish would win the series until JD Martinez decided to do something he never did before and hit a walk off home run.

To be honest, I am somewhat conflicted. On one hand, I want the Mets to play meaningful games. On the other hand, I do not believe they are world series contenders.  

Having said that, they should consider disposing of those players that are not part of the future. That means JD Martinez, Marte, McNeil and Severino should be made available to the highest bidders. Alonso should also be a goner if he abides by outrageous salary demands. Letting these players go would most certainly demoralize the team. However, it opens up slots for the next generation.

Within the next month, Senza and Scott should be ready to join the rotation. That means at least two current starters must be either be traded or moved to a different role.  For example, Megill seems to lose effectiveness when he hits the fifth inning. He’s an obvious candidate for the pen. Severino has the most value of the remaining starters and would garner the best return.

Dealing JD opens up a spot for Baty to return – we need to find out whether he’s a viable option for 2025.  Acuna has shown signs of life recently and he can take over 2^nd base. Marte is having a good year and will be difficult to replace – I suggest bringing up Ritter as someone who deserves a chance.

It’s remarkable how two or three players can make such a difference.  Alvarez brings a winning attitude and the staff responds when he is behind the plate. Diaz has looked really good recently and his return bolsters the entire pen.  Nunez looks dominant and the pen looks strong once again.

What surprises me is how well Vientos has played third.  I thought his glove would be a liability but that has not been the case. I was never in favor of signing JD but his recent output has been nothing short of amazing. Proves the old adage that hitting is contagious.  We are averaging about 4 ½ runs per game.  Not too shabby when you consider that Alonso, Nimmo and McNeil are all having off years and Alvarez has yet to hit his stride. The optimist would say the best is yet to come.  Currently we are a game and a half out of a wild card spot – certainly within reach.

My point is the Mets are wild-card contenders whether we pare the roster or stay with the status quo.  My guess is that Stearns will make the necessary moves with the future in mind.

Ray

June 18, 2024

MACK - Tuesday Morning Observations

 

Observations…

 

Verklempt…

 

I’m starting to have second thoughts about a reboot this off season. Reasons being…

 

First, and this is always the most important reason, the current 26 isn’t quitting and have put this team back into the wild card race. Players never quit. Never. It’s not in their DNA. Management are the people that put the white flag out, not the players.

 

And this team is showing signs that, if you don’t start trading away the veterans of this team (especially the ones that are liked and respected in the clubhouse), they just might make it to the playoffs.

 

Will they go all the way? Do they have that much talent? Both topics of discussion, but you simply can’t “blow up” a team that is operating this way.

 

My “Blow It Up” plan was highly dependent on upper level prospects either staying healthy or be operating on all cylinders. Well, Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert went down with long term injuries and Mets starters at both the top two levels… err… leveled off… and add to that there is no word on the progress of Ronny Mauricio. There is no Blow It Up plan without team controlled prospects. This is as much of a plan about finances as it is about talent.

 

Look… regardless of what is decided, there is a shite-load of deal money coming off the books at the end of this season. Cott Baseball says that the current 2025 Mets 26 man payroll is $141,100. That included Starlin Marte and Sean Manaea, and would lower the current 2026 26 man payroll to $103,850.

 

The current CBT threshold is $237mil.

 

You do the math.

 

A re-targeting to 2026 might be in order here while we all go and look for out old rally caps.

Tom Brennan: Should The Mets Go For It In 2024?

How do I break up this team NOW, with what I’m seeing?  

There has been lots and lots and lots of talk about the Mets blowing up the team and selling off key pieces, and giving up on 2024 and looking ahead to reposition and rebuild for future seasons, which for the Mets is an all-too-frequent occurrence.

I felt the same way 12 games ago. BLOW THEM UP. If they continue to suck.

They lost the game that day, and fell from 12-8 to 24-35. 

That made it just 12 wins in 39 games. 1963 Mets baseball. Hopeless.

But then…

The next 11 games came along.

In those 11 games, the Mets have a 9-2 record, best in all of baseball. 

So, we’re talking about blowing up a team that is winner 9 of their last 11 games, with 92 games to play. 

Which makes complete sense….no, it doesn’t. Why?

The offense? 

The team has scored 64 runs in those 11 games, a clear indication that the bats have woken up. And that was with very little contribution so far in that stretch from Jeff McNeil and Francisco Alvarez; one would presume that both will hit better than they’ve been hitting lately. JD Martinez is roaring (DH problem SOLVED) and Pete had a breakout game on Sunday. When he gets hot, he gets HOT. 

Lindor was hitting .145 on April 18, but has hit like FRANCISCO LINDOR ever since. Let’s move on…

The pitching? 

Severino’s been excellent, Manaea has been mostly good, Quintana, who I have criticized quite a bit, pitched very well in his last outing, Megill is looking better and better, and David Peterson looks confident and competent. Let’s move on…

The bullpen? 

Edwin Diaz and Drew Smith are back from injury and looking sharp. Dedniel Nunez and Sean Foley have only fanned 50 in 39 innings, with 22 hits allowed and 8 earned runs, the word for which is “sensational”. 

Adrian Houser went from gosh-awful starter to 1.59 as a reliever in 17 innings. Reid Garrett was bumpy for a bit, but is back to being sensational in June. 5.2 IP, 2 hits, 10 Ks. Ottavino has been shaky most of the year, but has allowed no earned runs in his last 3 outings. Diekman has been a bit shaky lately, but is still competent. Let’s move on…

The cavalry?

Brett Baty is hot and ready for recall whenever needed. 

Even 1B/2B/3B/OF Luke Ritter (.261, 16 HR, 50 RBIs in 62 AAA games) and heating up OF Rhylan Thomas (2 HR yesterday) could help if needed. Both are quite solid defensively.

Christian Scott is ready if needed, and my bet is Brandon Sproat is ready in 6 weeks if needed. But he shouldn’t be needed, because the Mets ace, Kodai Senga, ought to be back before then.

But, Tom, wait a darned second…

Have you seen the scary upcoming schedule??

What I see is there are 24 games until the ASB, and the weighted average of those 24 games has the Mets facing teams averaging 7 games UNDER .500 through 70 games. Which,were it to continue, would be facing teams that collectively averaged out to 16 games under after 162 games. In simpler terms, on average, they are facing 73-89 teams.

The way I see it, the hot Mets could go 16-8 in those 24 games. 

No guarantee, as these are the Mets, but I just outlined all the reasons they are currently hot, and that they will be facing collectively weaker teams. 

So why not 16-8?

16-8 would bring them to 49-45 at the break. 

They are now just 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot with 90 games to go. 

Maybe we’ll not sell, but add a stud reliever, in the weeks to come and, I dunno, even catch the Phillies? 

Only 13.5 games ahead are those Phils. It was 16.5 games ahead before the last 11 games, so the Mets have gotten 3 games closer.

Realmuto could be out until after the ASB, too.

Me? I ain’t breaking up squat right now in Metsville.

Tug McGraw reminded me, YA GOTTA BELIEVE!

Paul Articulates – Too close, but not close enough.

 <Sorry if this is a bit of a buzz kill after the Mets have won five in a row, but rational thought must overcome unrealistic enthusiasm>

The New York Mets’ 2024 season has been a story of too close, but not close enough.  During the pre-season we thought the team was close to achieving the goal of building a champion.  The baby Mets were maturing, the development system was loaded with prospects, and Kodai Senga was our new ace.

Even before the season began, some of this began to unravel as the pursuit of stars like Yamamoto failed, then Senga got hurt, and Megill went down with a shoulder strain.  David Peterson’s recovery was delayed and the pitching staff suddenly felt thin.  

The starters that remained healthy failed to go more than five innings in almost every game during the months of April and May, which stressed the bullpen.  The team’s ERA was one of the best in the NL in April at 3.50 but then plummeted to a NL-worst 4.85 in May.  Close became not close enough, and the team sunk ten games below .500.

There was hope in the minors as many of the prospects had strong seasons in 2023 and fans hoped that they were close to being called up to provide a boost to the big league club.  Not close enough though, as the rising stars like Vasil, Hamel, and Acuna have underperformed in 2024 delaying their “MLB readiness” rating.  Others like Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert have been set back by injury, also delaying their future.  

Back in NY, there were several underperforming veterans that were contributing to a starving offense, with big names like Alonso, Lindor, McNeil, and Nimmo languishing with batting averages in the low 200’s.  Several times in May and early June they would put up a good game and fans hoped that they were “close” to returning to form.  

Only Lindor has gotten there, slashing .287/.358/.481 in the last 30 days.  With a schedule that should have contributed to a boost in the standings, the inability to score consistently turned into a 9-19 record in May.  This was not close to any of our expectations.

Of course, the Mets could have scored more if all those balls caught at the warning track were actually over the fence.  The fences are not close enough, I guess.

With the team underperforming enough to forebode a trade deadline sell-off,  the Mets have now gone on a mini winning streak.  This gets them close enough in the wild card standings to make some say, “Wait, don’t sell…we still have a chance!”.  The team is only two games back of the last wild card spot, creating the impression that they are close to being a playoff team.  

This streak could create some pause amongst the front office folks who were ready to re-read Mack’s “Blow it up” post.  My advice is: read it closely and act upon it.  With this team, in this year, “close” is not close enough.  Here are my reasons why they should not alter the course.

• The Mets have been in many close games this year – too many.  They don’t win enough of those close games because they don’t have the mental toughness to scratch out runs when they really need and they don’t pile on when the team gets a good lead.  Let’s face it – even though this team has many talented ballplayers, they are lacking “winners”.  

If there was a stat for clutch hits, this team would be at the bottom of the league.  That has more to do with controlling mental state in key at-bats than luck.  Since you can’t read it on a stat line, you only know it when you see it.  There are very few players on this team that deliver clutch hits.  Move them while you can and let the young ones move up to see what they can deliver.

• The Mets do not have starting pitchers that can deliver length.  There have been way too few seven inning starts, and the result is a fatigued bullpen before we even hit the dog days of summer.  Because of that, the team can’t hold a lead if they get one.  Down the stretch if we were indeed able to be in a wild card race, that fatigued bullpen would cost us.  So if the front office can get a return on pitchers like Quintana, Manaea, and Houser they should make the deal.

• The “plan” a few years ago was to develop all the talent in the minor league system and build a championship team around a core of young players.  Baty has struggled but Alvarez still has the makings of a star, Vientos has done well with his long-awaited opportunity, and Mauricio looked great before his injury.  With many talented players still in the minors, there is no better time to get them some MLB experience than this mediocre season.  

It would be much more strategic to get them some experience and see who can cut it against major league talent than to chase a wild card slot that the team couldn’t capitalize on if they got one.  Baty has been an example of someone that needs time to figure out how to succeed at the MLB level. How many of the others need that time?

• The Mets are still paying an extraordinary amount of salary to a bunch of aging veterans that are not going to be around for the next championship run.  Any money that can be recouped at the trade deadline is more buying power for when it will have the greatest effect.

The bottom line here is that “close” is not close enough.  The team as currently built is too expensive, does not have the mental makeup  to win a championship, and needs to develop the talent that is waiting in the wings behind a veteran lineup that has had its chances.  David Stearns should do what he has to at the trade deadline to put this team back on course for a future championship.

Reese Kaplan -- Just 1 or 2 Changes Instead of a Clean Sweep?

With the team starting to play a bit better lately, the fans and media are all losing some of their certitude about what they need to do to improve for the future.  With the rest of the National League playing almost as poorly as are the Mets, it is indeed possible they could have October baseball within their tentative grasp.

So let’s take a break from the blow it up approach and instead think about the one or two things they could do without a rerun of the July 2023 sell off.  No matter how you slice it, the contracts the Mets have for various players will make some of them attractive to other teams.  Let’s take a brief look at the minimum they need to consider.

Pete Alonso is seemingly still suffering that same offensive level that he displayed last season.  As a hitter with undeniable home run power, he’s offering a more legitimately contending team some middle-of-the-order production that only requires a few months of salary.  Pay down that salary and the return could correspondingly increase.

One down side to this deal for the Mets is that Mark Vientos who everyone penciled in as  replacement on the right side of the infield has recently gone from red hot to ice cold.  D.J. Stewart theoretically could play 1B, but his bat is even worse. 

A second issue to absorb is that as much as many would envision Alonso as a Met-For-Life, it is most definitely going to be a blow to the man’s ego to be dealt away midway through the year.  Consequently it is less likely he would feel any loyalty or desire to return to the team that chose to maximize their return for him rather than standing by him.

The second player to consider moving is the suddenly lethal J.D. Martinez.  Like Alonso, his contract ends when the 2024 baseball season concludes.  He has a Hall of Fame type of career with a good batting average and  great power.  He earns significantly less than does Alonso and likely could be peddled without kicking in a salary reduction. 

Like losing the prime pitchers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander under Billy Eppler, parting ways with a player of Martinez’ caliber should not require making too many phone calls.  In fact, once word filters out that he is on the market David Stearns’ telephone will be ringing nearly non-stop. 

The third player who will surely get other GMs drooling is current number one starting pitcher Luis Severino.  His record, ERA and heritage as a star performer would get any other team’s pulse pounding.  Throw in his very modest salary, his youth and the end of the obligation also happening at year’s end.  Yes, he would generate quite a buzz.

There are plenty of other ballplayers who could entice a decent return given their contract status or ability, but they would involve smaller returns or more payroll contributions to make other clubs take as much interest.  

Yes, David Stearns could find a taker for a Starling Marte, Jeff McNeil, Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino or Sean Manaea.  Hell, with his last start performance you might even find a taker for pending free agent Jose Quintana.  The fact is that these players are not the ones who are almost automatic in the ease with which they could be moved.

While we have seen in the past the Mets were not particularly effective at in-season negotiations with their own existing players, but we do not yet know how David Stearns would perform in this regard. 

So how many players should the Mets move this year in preparation for the future?  Which one is at the top of your list?  

MACK - 2024 MLB DRAFT: TOP 300 PROSPECTS

 

Prospect Live - 2024 MLB DRAFT: TOP 300 PROSPECTS - LINK 

 

1. 3B/OF CHARLIE CONDON, GEORGIA

 

2. 2B TRAVIS BAZZANA, OREGON STATE

 

3. 1B/LHP JAC CAGLIANONE, FLORIDA

 

4. OF BRADEN MONTGOMERY, TEXAS A&M

 

5. LHP HAGEN SMITH, ARKANSAS

 

6. 2B/SS JJ WETHERHOLT, WEST VIRGINIA

 

7. 1B NICK KURTZ, WAKE FOREST

 

8. RHP CHASE BURNS, WAKE FOREST

 

9. SS/OF KONNOR GRIFFIN, JACKSON PREP (MS)

 

10. RHP TREY YESAVAGE, EAST CAROLINA

 

11. SS BRYCE RAINER, HARVARD-WESTLAKE (CA)

 

12. OF JAMES TIBBS III, FLORIDA STATE

 

13. 3B CAMERON SMITH, FLORIDA STATE

 

14. INF/OF SEAVER KING, WAKE FOREST

 

15. LHP CAM CAMINITI, SAGUARO (AZ)

 

16. RHP WILLIAM SCHMIDT, CATHOLIC (LA)

 

17. C MALCOLM MOORE, STANFORD

 

18. RHP BRODY BRECHT, IOWA

 

19. OF VANCE HONEYCUTT, NORTH CAROLINA 

HEIGHT: 6’3

WEIGHT: 205

B/T: R/R

DRAFT DAY AGE: 21 YR 1 MO

 Finding guys with five tool potential is a tough task, but Honeycutt has the potential to be that type of player. Honeycutt showed plenty of improvements in the strikeout department in 2023, dropping the strikeout rate significantly, though that came with the price of production. In 2024, he's prioritized lifting the ball and has seen his whiff/chase rates balloon as a result. He may never find that happy medium with the hit tool, but it's nice to see the power return to his 2022 form, where he hit 25 home runs. 

His walk rate has held steady, as well. He's an excellent runner underway and he's shown it on the basepaths and in center, where he projects to stick long term. It's excellent range with defensive prowess, making highlight reel plays look easy. If a team can trust its development team to make the hit tool consistent, he'll unlock all five tools.

 

20. OF SLADE CALDWELL, VALLEY VIEW (AR)

 

 LHP KASH MAYFIELD, ELK CITY (OK)

 

22. SS/OF THEO GILLEN, WESTLAKE (TX)

 

23. OF/RHP CARSON BENGE, OKLAHOMA STATE

 

24. 1B/OF PJ MORLANDO, SUMMERVILLE (SC).

 

25. SS WYATT SANFORD, INDEPENDENCE (TX)

 

26. OF DAKOTA JORDAN, MISSISSIPPI STATE

 

27. SS CARTER JOHNSON, OXFORD (AL)

 

28. RHP RYAN SLOAN, YORK COMMUNITY (IL)

 

29. OF RYAN WALDSCHMIDT, KENTUCKY

 

30. RHP BRAYLON DOUGHTY, CHAPARRAL (CA)

MACK - Draft News

 

                                                             (including end of games Friday)

 Wyatt Henseler @wyatthenseler

 After a lot of conversations with my family, I’ve decided to opt out of draft consideration and head to College Station. Excited to start my next chapter in Aggieland! Gig ‘em

 

 MLB Pipeline @MLBPipeline

 College bats are the strength of the 2024 Draft class.

 Here are the top 10:

 https://t.co/QoqAlyZjvI       https://t.co/0DxJGRGMUH 

 

Joe Doyle @JoeDoyleMiLB

A pitcher a day keeps the doctor away. Keep an eye on UNLV righty Austin Cates in the Draft. One of the better splitters in the class. Throws it a ton. Separates well in several ways off a low-90s FB. Will show a SL to RHH. Good mover too. Interesting.

https://t.co/glXFGkbwa8 

(I currently have him as a mid to closing second day pick)

 

Think Tennessee RHP AJ Causey is going to go good in the Draft. Maybe the most unique sinker in class. Elite sink & elite arm-side run. Low launch, but will vary his arm slot. SL, CB, CH make for an uncomfortable AB. Someone gives him a chance to start.

(I currently have him as a third day pick)

 

Total flier here, but if I'm a pro team I'd be interested in Austin Peay RHP Andrew Devine on day three of the Draft. Big under-slot. T94 w/carry from a sub-5' rel. Generates above average extension from a 5-9 frame. 60 K in 58 IP. Just 17 BB. SL flashes.

(this is the first ink I have seen on this guy)

 

JJ Cooper @jjcoop36

 

I had a lot of fun putting this together. After last night, there have been 19,001 HRs hit in D-I baseball this year. Even if no HRs are hit in Omaha, this will once again set the HR rate record. What's causing the spike? We inspected a ton of theories.

  https://t.co/Jjv60i2Mov 

 

Here's a crazy stat I came across while doing this. The HBP rate in D-I is skyrocketing. In 2024, 1.1% of MLB PAs result in an HBP. In D-I, it's 3.3%. The average team averages more than 1 HBP per game (22,218 in total). 

https://t.co/dvLZYcRW5v 

 

Jacob Rudner @JacobRudner

            Brandon Neely in the postseason: 12 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 19 K

 Florida’s closer is making himself some money 

                        Keith Law @keithlaw 

Postseason performances don’t actually move the needle much for teams unless there’s a big change in stuff

 What does move the needle the wrong way is letting Neely throw 50+ high-stress pitches the day after he threw 57

 (The 6-3 righty will probably be the first closer off the board at around the 175^th pick; however, after seeing these pitch counts, you might be watching a conversion to starter in the making)

 

 Carlos Collazo @CarlosACollazo

 

I feel like we've seen a lot of really bad corner outfield play in college this season.

Why UNC’s Vance Honeycutt is one of the draft’s most exciting—and risky—prospects:

https://t.co/azfMfgLaUV 

 

Teddy Cahill @tedcahill

Jac Caglianone was already one of the very best players in the country last year.

He's gotten even better this year, especially as a hitter - cutting his strikeout rate and raising his average without sacrificing power.

 How the Gators star did it

https://t.co/HuwK5Lh0EA 

UK Baseball defeats Oregon State, 10-0, to open the series in Lexington.

Trey Pooser (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 8 K)

 (outings like this get players on draft boards… I did not have this 6-4 grad student on my board and now he goes and dominates Oregon Freaking State. What a great under-slot pick he would make now)

 

 Kendall Rogers @KendallRogers

                 Braden Montgomery gets thrown out at home and he goes down after not being able to put weight on his ankle. They're bringing out what looks like an air cast of some sort. That's awful news for the Aggies.xs A&M's Jim Schlossnagle said star outfielder Braden Montgomery is "out for the year" with lower leg injury. 

(this is absolutely horrible news for a kid that many projected as the fifth pick in the upcoming draft. Will wait for final results of med tests, but this will cost Braden big bucks in the draft)