Mack - Sunday Morning Observations
(thru Friday’s results)
Observations…
Let’s talk pen.
My French Mother-In-Law asked my Italian Father-In-Law once why he stopped watering the plants outside. He barked out “THEY’RE ON THEIR OWN!”
I can’t do anything about the 2024 pen, They’re on their own here. What I do is look to the future and what better time to try and line up the 2025 pen than right now.
Here’s my spin right now…
All this my 2023 Pen Template…
Edwin Diaz - I’m not sure how much gas is still in the tank here, but for the remaining contract that doesn’t run out until the end of the 2025 season is reason alone that is a reason he will still be around. I don’t think we will see the bravado and velocity from Sugar again, but he remains a hell of a lot more talented than some of the people this team has thrown at us this season.
Sean Reid-Foley - I have loved this guy from the get-go. He was drafted by Toronto in 2014 and came to the Mets after the 2020 season, as part of the Steven Matz deal. Produced a 3.52 parent Mets last season in 8-appearances with 16-K in 7.2-IP. So far this season. He has already appeared in 17 games, tossing a 2.18- ERA, 16.2-IP and 21-K. He turns 29 in August and will become elligible for free agency after the 2027 season.Big time keep here.
Bryce Montas de Oca - Dey-O was drafted in the 9th round of the 2018 draft, by the Mets, out of the University of Missouri. Through two minor league seasons he has posted a combined 3.80-ERA, but he really only down one great thing… he strikes batters out (127-K in 85.1-IP). He also walks a bunch of batters (65) and spends a lot of time in the trainer’s room. On March 13, 2023, de Oca was diagnosed with a stress reaction which needed some TLC; however, 17 days later his UCL Was deemed “insufficent” and he went under the knife. As I write, he is hitting 98 in the back fields. He could easily be considered the next Mets closer.
And… from the current pool and future contracts, these are the only “keepers” in my 2025 pen.
Others to consider…
RHP Dediell Nunez - Nunez is currently under a $596,805 one year deal with the Mets. As of Thursday, he was pitching to a 2.31 ERA. That’s good. I would sign this guy THIS YEAR to, at least, two more seasons.
RHP Dom Hamil - Hamil has a lot of talent but he has stalled as a starter in Syracuse. Still, he throws the ball real hard and has had 528 strikeouts in 404 innings pitched over his career. He is also under team control for 4+ future seasons. Lastly, there is too much starter talent below him forcing him to the slower lane. For these reasons alone, I am sure the team can squeeze an inning (or more as a long man) per outing out of him.
RHP Mike Vasil - Similar to Hamil, peaking as a minor league starter. Also throws hard and has a shiteload of eligibility left. He too will be quickly passed by other emerging prospect starters. Only around a 1K per 1-IP guy, but still a workable one inning reliever in the future.
RHP Drew Smith - Currently unsigned for 2025. Loved when the Mets traded Lucas Duda to the Rays for this guy. Did have to sit him for six weeks due to shoulder soreness, but his career 3-47- ERA and 2.53 currently through Wednesdau night makes me want to sign this 30-year old forat least one more season.
Reed Garrett - Currently unsigned for 2025. Wh,o-da-think-it? A 31-year old basic has been with a career 5.50-ERA, turn into a huge success this year in Queens. Basically unhittable early on that, as of end Wednesday night, still has put up 0.2-WAR and a 3.19-ERA this season. Making $740K this season. Lots of teams are going to go after this guy. Sign him now.
Keeping an eye on…
Danny Young - Currently unsigned for 2025. Has, through Wednesday night, thrown three scoreless innings for the Mets (0.00-ERA). Previously, produced a 1.59-ERA for Syracuse this season in 11.1 innings.
Tyler Jay - Currently unsigned for 2025. 30-year old former early first rounder trying to make a comeback from where he bagan… a reliever. So far this season… currently, through Wednesday, 0.1-WAR, 2.25-ERA for the Mets and 2.08 for Syracuse.
One thing worth noting…
Relievers used to be known as failed starters. College teams are churning out much more talented relievers this day, but the fact still remains that the lion share of your future pen comes from your starter pool in the minors. For this reason alone, I now project two prospect starters, that don’t seem to be progressing as starters, to become 2027 relievers… Nolan McLean and Joander Suarez.
Roster Moves -
Mets -
RP Jorge Lopez passed through waivers and was released
C Omar Narvaez passed through waivers and was released
RHP Drew Smith reinstated from the 15-Day
LHP Josh Walker was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse.
Syracuse -
RHRP Jonathan Pintaro signed
Binghamton -
RHP Hunter Parsons - Moved from DL list to 7-Day IL
St. Lucie -
OF A J Ewing promoted from FCL Mets
Prospect Rating Changes -
OF A J Ewing from BLACK to BLUE
New Met
RHRP Julian Smith
6-4 210 27-yrs old
MiLB career: 15-10 5.57 190.2-IP 209-K
Assigned to A+ Brooklyn
RHRP Jonathan Pintero
26/yrs 6-2 235 UDFA Shorter Univ.
Signed from Glacier out of the Frontier League
2024 - 14.1-IP 23-K 1-BB
(to me, this is a real shot in the drak, but what the hell… if he can duplicate a K/IP ratio even close to this, it’s worth developing him as a closer)
Florida Complex League Mets @FCLMets
Play well, get rewarded!
A.J. Ewing has been named the FCL Player of the Week AND been promoted to the St. Lucie Mets.
A. J. slashed .353/.542/1.000 with 3 home runs in 5 games last week
(was waiting for this guy to get going… I have raised his prospect status fro BLACK to BLUE)
Top performers from '23 Draft -- one from each team - LINK
Mets: Brandon Sproat, RHP
Sproat was a fun Draft story as a player twice-taken by the Mets, and early results have made New York look smart to turn back to the Florida pitcher in last year’s second round. Sproat leads full-season pitchers in the system with his 1.23 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 63 strikeouts and .151 average-against over 51 1/3 innings between High-A Brooklyn and Double-A Binghamton. His fastball has touched triple digits while his slider and changeup have also been strong swing-and-miss pitches.
Mike Mayer @mikemayer22
Veteran utility player Mike Brosseau homered in both games of the doubleheader on Thursday for Triple-A Syracuse. Brosseau is hitting a ridiculous .341/.450/.626 with 7 HR in 27 games since signing with the Mets.
Obviously, a small sample size for Dedniel Núñez, but look at the Top 5 in K% with 10 IP min:
51.5% Mason Miller
46.4 Fernando Cruz
42.9 Jeremiah Estrada
42.6 Dedniel Núñez
40.5 Josh Hader
Colin Houck is starting to heat up for St. Lucie over his last 13 games:
.353/.411/.588, 7 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 2 SB
Bryce Montes de Oca recently threw live BP. He was already hitting 96-98 mph.
Mets prospects Blade Tidwell, Brandon Sproat added to Baseball America’s updated Top 100 list -
Anthony DiComo @AnthonyDiComo
Digging back into the minors in the latest Mets newsletter for a look at Boston Baro, who's been turning some heads down in Port St. Lucie:
MLB Pipeline @MLBPipeline
Behind a high-velocity fastball, Brandon Sproat has mixed his arsenal exceptionally well in his promotion to Binghamton.
The Mets' No. 13 prospect continued that efficiency Sunday with a career-best performance at Double-A:
(everybody loves this guy, but the thing you have to realize is he has only thrown 51.1 professional innings. Let this guy pitch every sixth day for Binghamton for the remainder of this season, then open him up next season for Syracuse)
Baseball -
JJ Cooper @jjcoop36
My apologies that I missed this earlier. It looka at MLB catchers knee position and called strike rates. This is looking purely at called strike rate to measure how much a one-knee down (or both knees down) stance compares to traditional.
You as an umpire may think you call it as it crosses the plate, but the best umps in the world are influenced by how a catcher receives the pitch. At this point, arguing otherwise is like arguing the world is flat.
This is a cool study @tangotiger looked at every different pitch type and different location. Only on high sliders was a conventional stance equivalent in pitch framing, and that is such a rare pitch that it may be a small sample size issue.
this point at the MLB level, this is as close to a settled debate as possible. At the MLB level, teams believe/know that one-knee down stances are superior to the traditional two-knees up setup, and pretty much every MLB team/catcher has adopted the modern setup.
(take the time and read this, but if you don’t wish to, Coop pretty much concludes the facts here.)
Matt Eddy @MattEddyBA
Two-year minor league park factors are here! For the first time, park factors are split by batting hand: all batters, RH batters and LH batters
Includes all 120 full-season parks, covering the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
Outfielder Avisail Garcia is being designated for assignment by the Miami Marlins, sources tell ESPN. Garcia is in the third year of a four-year, $53 million contract. The Marlins will eat nearly $24 million on the deal.
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
García is owed the balance of his $12M salary this season, $12M next season and a $5M buyout on a 2026 option. He has been on the injured list since April 28 with a left hamstring strain.
(any interest here?)
Rob Dibble @robdibble49
I coach HS pitchers and have for 20 years. I also have worked in Broadcasting for 25 plus years and interviewed the best Orthopedic Surgeons on the planet. Young pitchers need time to recover and over amping and overuse is killing them. But what do I know?
15 comments:
Morning.
Edwin is on the books thru 2027 although he has an opt out after 2025. 2 years, $28 million after that. So it depends which Edwin exists at that time.
I took a look at Hamel's chart for this year to see how his first innings have gone, assuming a switch to relief. Not good. He needs to figure something out. He did finish strong the last few months of 2023, but baseball is a 6 month sport in games that count.
Vasil? Probably.
Oca? Great news, especially if the control comes back better. Will he start rehab games in July? If it were me, I'd probably shoot for late July to start rehab, to give him a little more recovery time, but if he is ready sooner...
Foley? My brother never liked him. Me? I'm neutral.
Suarez bounced back with 6 shutout innings with 10 Ks, but allowed 2 HRs in the 7th as he went 6.2 IP. I think he is a viable pen arm, who will be promoted to AAA soon.
yday.
Smith will be a free agent, and I'd think he is hoping for a Wheeler finish to this season so he can get a bigger pa
Garrett? I'd like to see a little more of him, but if he is tough into August, extend him.
Dedniel? Yep - sign him for a few years.
McLean? Definite 2025 reliever. Hopefully his bat will have improved enough so he can pinch hit, too.
Eric Orze was left out. He has been inconsistent in Syracuse, but if you remove his first two relief outings in Arctic weather, where he walked 6 and allowed 4 runs in 2 innings, he has done this:
27 innings, 10 runs, 21 H, 12 BB, 39 Ks. That is to me a serviceable Mets pen arm, even right now.
Paul Gervase is still in AA and while his K rate remains very high, and he has fanned 134 in 81 career innings, but his walks are still too high. If he can walk fewer, he is a 2025 relief arm.
If the Mets end up in a very unlikely playoff scenario, they could do worse than to have Brandon Sproat relieve. I still think he could pitch for the Mets this year if they sell off. His big bugaboo, as I seem to recall, when drafted was control, but his control has been very good. He could be our Paul Skenes.
Good for Ewing. Another guy who is hitting well is Junior Tilien with an 18 game on base streak in Brooklyn.
No on Avasail - consider using Brousseau of a body is needed. Perhaps promote him before re-promoting Baty. Let Baty prove he has nothing left to prove there.
I like SRF cuz he resembles Sgt. Slaughter from the WWE
That's who he looks like!
Sgt. Slaughter had a condo on Hilton Head back in the day and we uses to hire him for pocket change to appear at our remote broadcasts
Really nice guy
Ditto Tyler Jay and Danny Young, but I don’t know what the Baseball Agreement says on age restrictions for arbitration. I know it was brought up as a discussion…
Where did my comment go about Garrett not being a FA until 2030 and prediction about Garcia becoming a Brave go?
My bad
Clicked wrong box
By the way... I am naming you the official fact checker on this site.
I’m surprised and disappointed that Nido isn’t in today’s lineup either. This trip was a memorable one and doing this to Nido is not a good sign. And don’t tell me that Torrens has been on fire…
Thank you for the MDO update? Has anyone heard anything about Allen?
Nothing here
Rumor is he has put a permanent cot and flat-screen in the training room and vacations in the back fields of Lucy
I don’t mind sprout staying in AA as long as stern doesn’t have the philosophy that players need AAA time
I have seen way too many cases where players are ready and jump AAA
So when sproat or any prospect is ready
Jump to the MLB
Learn in the big show
I have never been one who believes you ruin a star by promoting
Baseball is not a contact sport
If their confidence can be destroyed then they are not a major leaguer
A kid like Vientos has been yo yo around more than anyone
Hitters hit
Pitchers pitch and players play
My guess with Alvarez coming back early this week they wanted a good look see in Torrens on this trip
The throw he just made to Pete might have sealed the deal
Let these guys develop properly
We already seeing pitching prospects come back to earth
Scott and Tidwell next season
Sproat 2026
I will double down on Sproat sooner if his next start is as dominant as his last one. But I want minor league domination, a laSkenes and Scott, befor stomping on the Sproat accelerator. Dominate over the next 6, and if so, break him in for the 2025 starting rotation.
I love McLean. He’s giving up AA runs on hits, not walks, and fanning a ton. Plenty of time to build in the finesse of painting just off corners and walking more.
16.2 IP, 23 Ks vs 2 walks so far in AA. Eleven runs, but so what? He’ll fix that.
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