Steve Sica - MLB Can't Afford a Lengthy Work Stoppage

 

As the 2026 MLB season draws to a close, there's no guarantee that we'll see baseball in time for Opening Day 2027. With the CBA expiring, all signs are pointing to a bitter work stoppage that may last into the 2027 MLB season.

MLB hasn't canceled regular season games since 1995, excluding the 2020 COVID shortened season. 1995 was a byproduct from the 1994 strike which ended the '94 season in mid-August. 1995 had only 144 games and a season that started during the last week of April.

The cancellation of the 1994 season had deep impacts in MLB's short-term and long-term future. For the first time in 90 years, the World Series was cancelled. As was the remaining month and a half of the MLB season. It cost teams and players from achieving records as Matt Williams and Ken Griffey Jr. were within striking distance of the then single-season home run record of 61.

Long-term impacts were felt as soon as the 1995 season got underway. Ratings and attendance numbers declined by 20% year-over-year. The strike had a direct impact on the fortunes of the Montreal Expos. When the work stoppage happened, the Expos were 74-40, best record in baseball and seemingly a lock for a postseason berth. After the strike, key players were dealt away and Montreal fell back to earth with a 66-78 record in 1995. Attendance numbers never recovered in Montreal and ten years after the strike, the Expos played their final game north of the border, moving to D.C in 2005.

It took MLB about four years to finally recover to pre-strike numbers in attendance and ratings. This was aided in large part to the 1998 home run chase that put baseball back on the National stage again. By the 2000's the strike was largely forgotten and baseball enjoyed a rebirth.

As 2027 comes up, the ghosts of 1994 are stirring. This time though, MLB can't risk another long-term work stoppage. The entertainment and sports landscape have changed drastically over the last 30 years. Baseball already has to compete with the NFL for national attention. Pair that with the rise of the NBA and NHL in the last three decades and baseball isn't quite the powerhouse it was in the early 1990s.

Entertainment and how fans watch games have changed too. With virtually any movie or TV show at your fingertips, fans are turning off sports and opting to watch highlights instead. This is bad news for baseball that sports the longest regular season by far of 162 games and, who despite doing everything they can to speed up the game, still can't shake the fact that most casual fans don't pay attention until the pennant race heats up in September.

If baseball disappears in the spring of 2027, the void will be filled by the NFL Draft, and the NBA and NHL playoffs. Baseball's time to shine typically happens in the summer. June-early September, when it takes center stage as the National pastime. If the season isn't started up by early May, baseball will run the risk of isolating casual fans and some of them will never come back. There's far to much competition from a sports standpoint. 

These fans will latch onto to the intense and very entertaining NHL playoffs, which have seen higher ratings nearly every year during the 2020's, or jump into the star studded NBA playoffs. New York fans saw first hand just how much the Knicks took over New York City during their magical run to a champtionship.

A long-term strike in baseball would have other sport leagues salivating. The WNBA, the Premier League, as soccer gains rapid popularity in America. Even competitive video gaming, which is already popular with younger generations. These second-tier sports would see a surge in viewers, and might even make the non-diehard baseball fans tune out baseball when it comes back to watch these other sports full-time.

On top of that, with the economy in rough shape, costs of goods sky high, the optics of millionaires vs. billionaires will not sit well with the majority of "Main Street America" MLB has the whole off season to sort out this mess and get the season started on schedule. A slight delay of a couple weeks will likely be forgiven. But if it continues as the weather warms up, like 1994, MLB will risk doing irreversible damage to its brand and the sport overall. 

Players and owners need to remember this as they duke it out in labor meetings this winter. If the fans start tuning the sport out, they won't have to worry about a salary cap, they'll have to contend with the idea of MLB, a league that's been around for over 100 years, nicknamed the National Pastime, become an afterthought in the American public's eye.