PIITB By JD- Weekly Recap

 

 Record this week: 3-2 (2-1 vs Marlins and 1-1 vs Padres) 

 

Marlins Series: 2-1 vs Marlins

The Mets took care of business vs. Miami this past weekend. Going 2-1 and looking solid. Senga looked great once again. I got the chance to see him in person on Saturday and that Ghost Fork was on full display. He dominated the Marlins for the second time in a week. That is not easy to do. A guy with no Major league experience and facing a pesky lineup two times in a row. The advantage goes from the pitcher to the hitter after facing them before. After a shaky first, he settled right down. Sunday’s game was an obvious punt game for the Mets having used the pen on Saturday and Carrasco going Sunday. Carrasco was once again awful. He is washed up, that is all. 

 

Padres Series: 1-1 vs Padres so far

This Padres series has been fun to watch so far and very very stressful. Max looked solid yesterday. He went through 5, 1-hit innings but issued 3 walks causing his pitch count to soar. His command was off and yet his stuff was perfectly fine. His breaking pitches looked sharp but in accurate. People are saying his velocity is down from last year, which is true to an extent. His average is down, however, his max velocity is the same. He has adjusted his whole career and I have no doubt he will adjust once again. 

 

Summary:

This team is good. It has not reached its potential yet. We saw that last year. It has some major problems with power and therefore consistency at times. The injuries are hindering the Mets to an extent. Justin Verlander is due to return any time now and Max looked solid in his third start. I sincerely hope Brett Baty is the Mets third basemen this time next week. LFGM

PIITB By JD- My Reaction to the First Week of Play

 PIITB By JD- My Reaction to the First Week of Play

 

    This first week of baseball has been a ton of fun. Most home runs hit at this point since 2019…. Are the balls juiced again? Honestly, I’m here for it. It makes perfect sense in the season where the league is testing all these new rules geared towards making the game more entertaining with an increased offense that juicing the balls would also be added into the mix. The league wants more offense for the fans and they are giving it to us. 

 

    As for the Mets. As it stands today, the Mets are about to drop their 2^nd game in a row to the Brewers. They are now 3-3 to start the season. Taking 3 of 4 from the Marlins in Miami. My only takeaway from the Miami series is that Carlos Carrasco is no longer good enough to be in the rotation for a championship hopeful. His fastball was sitting 88-89 and the stuff was not very crisp either. You simply cannot throw 88 and be as successful as the Mets need Carlos to be. 

 

    As for this Brewers series so far. The lack of offense is glaring. The Mets were never going to hit many home runs, which was a major concern going into the season. That issue is rearing its head now. With the offense relying on bunching hits to get runs across, it has been a slow start for the Mets. This offense is inconsistent and lacks pop. The issues we all thought about going into the season are becoming a reality. 

 

I am trying not to overreact, but it is a ton of fun to react hastily even if it’s not all that important at this point.

 

    This team is still good, but I am getting a bit concerned with this epidemic of pitcher injuries the Mets have come across. I am looking for the Mets to come home fighting and put on a show this coming weekend. I’ll be there to see Senga pitch on Saturday, looking forward to what this guy can do in person. 

Thoughts on the New Rules- PIITB by JD

 Thoughts on the New Rules- PIITB by JD

 

I decided to pause the top 10 rankings to discuss the topic everyone is talking about. The pitch clock and the new rules for 2023. 

First off, I want to say the pitch clock is working. It is doing what it was designed to do. Spring Training games are as fast as ever! The Mets have played one game over 3 hours this spring. Most of the games I have seen have been around 2 hours and 35 minutes. MLB has cut out the fluff between batters. That is not to say there are no issues with the clock and the new rules. Here are a couple of consequences I am not a fan of:

1.     Games ending due to a violation. That is simply unacceptable. Imagine it is the World Series, game 7 and Pete Alonso strikes out for taking too long in the box or Edwin Diaz walks in a batter for not starting his motion in time. 

2.     The decline in broadcaster commentary. This is MASSIVE for the at-home experience. Broadcasters across baseball have decades of experience to share with the fans at home. I’ll use Gary, Keith, and Ron for example. I think everyone can agree their dynamic is second to none and they are one of, if not the best, broadcasting crew in the league. Throughout my time as a fan, I have heard Gary ask thoughtful questions to Keith and Ron as well as have entertaining banter. This is part of the experience! Whether it’s Keith telling a joke or Ron analyzing a play, there is never a dull moment in that booth. With games being shortened so much and cutting out the extra time between pitches, we are missing out on what makes broadcasters so special. 

3.     Less time for walkup music! By limiting time between batters, walkup music is much harder. Imagine not hearing the trumpets when Diaz comes out! 

 I am not sure how to solve the broadcaster issue, however, I do have a few recommendations on how to improve the rules. 

1.     Eliminate the pitch clock in the 9^th inning. No game should be decided by a clock running out. What is so unique about baseball compared to other sports is that you can not simply run out the clock. You have to throw the ball in the zone and give the other guy his shot to hit. That is the game all of us grew up watching and want to keep watching. I’m sure MLB nor the MLBPA want games decided by a clock and this is a very easy fix. 

2.     Cut out the pickoff attempt rules- currently, a pitcher can throw over to a base twice. If he throws over a 3^rd time and does not get the runner out, he is awarded second base. I understand this encourages stealing, but it is too much in my opinion. As Buck said last week, “once you throw over twice, you might as well throw over again because they are going to get second anyway”. 

3.     Increase the pitch clock to 18 seconds with nobody on base and 23 seconds with guys on. Currently, the rules are 15 seconds with nobody on base and 20 seconds with runners on base. As we have seen, there are issues with the current clock. Pitchers are struggling with picking the right pitch in time. This encourages offense for sure. When pitchers have less time to get ready, the pitch may not be perfect. The batters are having issues as well. Not being able to take a breath and leave the box should not be the goal. I want Pete Alonso to take a breath and relax between pitches. We want to see the batters succeed and they need more time to do so.

Drop your thoughts below!

Photo creds: ESPN

What should we think about Darin Ruf? - PIITB by JD

 

     I decided to take a break from my top 10 rankings to address someone I know is on the mind of Mets fans. Darin Ruf.

 

    Darin Ruf is on the top of Mets fan's least favorite players right now. We all know how last season went. He was nothing short of horrific in his 29 games. Ruf hit .152 with a .413 ops. He had 10 hits. 0 home runs. That says it all. 

 

    What is interesting and somewhat annoying is his career points to great numbers vs lefties. He was supposed to be the answer as the RH DH. His career ops against lefties is .891. That drop-off is, well, significant to say the least. We all know mid-season trades are hard on players. Especially when being traded to NY. In an interview today, Ruf said he struggled with the mid-season switch. To be honest, he did not sound overly confident in handling the NY media daily. 

 

    To me, Ruf is the guy fans blame for everything. I do not believe he will bounce back. However, he could not be worse than he was last year. Every team needs players’ fans get to blame for team struggles. Last year it was James McCann and later Darin Ruf. The Yankees have IKF and warning track Donaldson. You need those guys as scapegoats. 

 

    With all that said, I would love to see a bounce back. Even a .700 ops would be massive. Maybe Vientos emerges as a replacement too. The Mets need some help in that regard and Alvarez is likely not starting opening day on the roster. 

 

Leave your thoughts below about Ruf and this upcoming season!

JD's Top 10 1st Basemen- PIITB by JD

 JD’s Top 10 1^st Basemen – PIITB by JD

    I am back with my next set of positional rankings for the 2023 season. Unfortunately, this one won’t include two Mets in the top 10 like the starting pitcher list. But, our next extension candidate, (and my pick for captain) Pete Alonso will make an appearance. Let’s kick it off!

1. Paul Goldschmidt- How could I not put Goldy at #1. Coming off a career year and his first MVP season Goldy has to get to the #1 slot. This man had a 7.1 fwar coupled with 35 homers, .317 average and a 177 wrc+. The next couple of guys on this list may end up having a better 2023, but it would be disrespectful to Goldy for him not to be #1. 

2. Freddie Freeman- No surprise here. Freddie has been one of the top first basemen in the game for the last several years. He is coming off one of his better seasons but one that is not as “Freddie-esque”. We are used to more power out of Freddie but his value did not take a dip by any means. He hit to a tune of .325 (second in baseball behind McNeil), with 21 homers, a 157 wrc+, and a 7.1 fwar.

3. Vlad Guerrero Jr.- another unsurprising guy on this list. We heard about this guy forever. He arrived just a few years ago. He had a down year last year, but he will find his stroke again and be a dominant force for years to come. Vlad’s I expect a strong comeback for Vlad. He came off a year in which he hit 32 homers, had a 132 wrc+ and a 2.8 fwar. I predict Vlad will boost himself back up to that 4-5 fwar range. 

4. Pete Alonso- a lot of lists have Jose Abreu at this spot. He will make an appearance soon. Pete is one of the top power hitters in the sport. Him and Aaron judge are 1/2 in home runs since 2019. Pete came off a 4 war season hitting 40 bombs with a 143 wrc+. He is only getting better and is proving his consistency. 8/216. Get it done Steve.

5. Matt Olson- yea Braves fans. Pete is better than your guy. Olson is an excellent player in his own right. A good defender with a bat to pair. Olson had a 3.1 fwar season last year along with 34 homers and a 120 wrc+. Another consistent power player, just not as good as the Polar Bear.

6. Jose Abreu- one of the games top 1st basemen of the last several years. Abreu has always been a source of great power over the course of his career. Not last season though. Jose only hit 15 homers. That didn’t stop him from having a great season. 3.9 fwar and a 138 wrc+ prove. His savant peripherals were still elite showing he still has that pop. He’s 36 years old so maybe his power will dwindle but I wouldn’t count him out.

7. Nathaniel Lowe- now comes the fun part of the list. Lowe is just 26 years old and is already one of the top 1st basemen in the game. He had just a 3.0 fwar last year but slugged to a tune of a .302 average, 27 bombs, and a 143 wrc+. He will keep getting better and likely move up this list.

8. Ty France- another newcomer to this list. At just 27 years old, France is a premier first baseman in the game. Swatting 20 bombs with a 2.4 fwar and a 126 wrc+ is a good spot to be in for France. He has been consistent over the last few years and I think he’s going to take a jump.

9. Rhys Hoskins- this one might be somewhat surprising to some people. I’m high on Hoskins. He’s a great power bat in an era where power is more important than ever. Not that it’s particularly hard to find a right-handed power hitter, but Hoskins provides that consistency. I feel like I know exactly what I’m getting every year from this guy. He had a 2.2 fwar last year while hitting 30 bombs and a 122 wrc+. Hoskins is a great performer with the potential to be even better. 

10. Anthony Rizzo- I know some of you were probably expecting Luis Arraez here, but he is now a second baseman for the Marlins after Jazz moves to CF. Rizzo has the advantage of playing at Yankee stadium 81 games a year. With the short porch, Rizzo’s approach fits well. He hit 32 homers last season with a 133 wrc+ and a 2.4 fwar. I expect Rizzo to hit 25-30 homers this year. His power could take a dip but the lack of shift and the short porch provides more value to Rizzo.

 

Leave your thoughts below!

Image Creds: Shane Acedara 

What can we expect from Brett Baty this season? - PIITBlog by JD

 

What can we expect from Brett Baty this season? - PIITBlog by JD

Ah, Brett Baty. The guy we are "stuck" with. In the post-Carlos Correa era (20 days of pure torture). I was over it, I think everyone was. In any case, Carlos Correa will be a Minnesota Twin for at least the next 6 seasons. The Mets are “left” with Brett Baty. 

Let's take a look at Brett Baty’s statistics and outlook from the minor leagues. Baty was drafted back in 2019 at just 19 years old. Baty’s scouting grades on MLB.com are in the upper echelon. With a 60 hit, power, and arm tool Baty is one of the best there is. He checks in at 6’3 and 210 pounds. He appears pretty thin and definitely has room to bulk a bit. 

In terms of minor league production, Baty as flew through the minors. Within his first season he went through 3 affiliates. Even with the stoppage in 2020 where he was sent to the alternate site. He hit .292/382/743 with 12 homers across High A and double A in 2021. He tends to hit the ball on the ground a lot which is a major knock on him. He is big and ready to play so I expect him to work on that. He is only 23 at the moment and sky is the limit.

Baty projects between 20-30 home runs in 2023 if you project out the numbers fangraphs has over the length of a full season of play. If the Mets get even 20 home runs out of Baty this season that is a win to me. This team has lacked power and we should be excited to see Baty start to get his foothold in MLB. 

 

I am going to project Baty to hit to a tune of .245/.340/.710 with a 108 wrc+ and 22 home runs. I am getting excited about our number 2 prospect, you should be too. 

What Would a Pete Extension Look Like? - PIITBlog by JD

  What Would a Pete Extension Look Like?- PIITBlog by JD

    

With Brandon Nimmo’s extension in the rearview window (and as of yesterday Carlos Correa too!), it is time to think about the next core piece the Mets must lock up. Pete Alonso. Right now, the Mets have 3 guys locked up for life in Lindor, Nimmo, and Correa. It is time to add a 4th. Pete will not hit free agency for 2 more seasons and he will be 30 years old once he gets there. This contract would buy him out of his arbitration years. For reference, Pete made 7.4 million this year. This contract is not easy to figure out as there are very few comparisons in recent memory and the way contracts are now the numbers are extremely inflated. 

Let’s start with comparisons. As I said, there are not many notable comparisons with Pete being a power guy who can also hit for a decent average. The last couple off seasons have been full of shortstops getting paid way above their pay grade or getting the years that takes them into their 40s. Seager and Semien got crazy deals for shortstops (neither can even play shortstop). Seager clocked in at 32.5 million AAV which was a massive overpay by the Rangers (who knows what they are doing over there). Turner and Correa were in the 27 AAV range and got the years to make up for the ‘lower’ AAV. Those guys play Shortstop (Correa will play 3rd) making it hard to compare to Pete.

 

Similar players that have gotten contracts recently are Olson, Goldy, and Freddie. Olson got 8/168 (21 AAV) taking him into age ~36 depending on options. Goldy got 5/130 (26 a year) back in 2019 taking him through age 36 as well. Freddie got 6/162 (27 AAV) taking him through age 38. Those guys are not perfect comparisons given age and situation, but they are as close as we can get.

Alright, now I want to try to predict this contract. A friend of mine heard Mets Assistant GM, Ben Zauzmer speak at Lehigh University recently and he gave us some insight into how teams value players. Many of the not analytically inclined simply take 1fWAR and equate to ~8 million. That’s it. For many teams there is no magic formula or factors us as fans can’t see. They simply take a players production in fWAR and convert it based on 1fWAR= $8 million. The Mets are not one of those teams according to Zauzmer. As we know, Steve Cohen has invested a ton of resources into building up the analytics department. Part of that department’s job is to determine a players worth. Zauzmer said the Mets use a series of predictive algorithms when assigning value in order to take into account what they will do instead of just what they have done. Zauzmer would not go into great detail about the Mets system. 

This brings me to Pete. In my opinion, the second Pete gets extended the Mets should and will slap the C on his chest. He will be named the next Mets Captain. This could inflate his contract a bit but nothing too crazy. Given what we know about contract values and comparing Pete to the aforementioned players I am estimating pete will get between 25-28 AAV. I do not think it will go below that, but I could see it going up to 28 AAV perhaps. Pete is roughly a 4 WAR player, so according to how some teams value players he could command 32 AAV. I do not see this being the case and here is why. First, Pete plays first base RIGHT NOW. He is not a great defensive player and likely never will be. He does his job and I am all for it. I do see him moving to a full time DH role by his early-mid 30s. This takes his value down. Pete will be looking for a deal that allows him to finish or come close to finishing his career with the Mets. 

I believe the Mets will be looking at a contract that is minimum 8 years in length and minimum $200 million (25 AAV). This is the baseline for me and I have no reason to think the Mets would not offer it. My final prediction after all the cards are dealt is 8/200 (25AAV). This will take him through age 35-36. This buys Pete out of his arbitration years. If the Mets offered this deal to him today, I believe Pete takes it in a heartbeat. And no, I do not think the Correa deal impacts Pete's. Let’s put pen to paper and get this man the C on his chest. LFGM