Cautious Optimist -- If he (Bichette) stays or if he goes

 

The Mets signed Bo Bichette one day after their bid to land Kyle Tucker failed. Both Tucker and Bichette have failed to live up to the hype or the compensation packages they received.  Bichette had a miserable two months to start his tenure with the Mets, and fans responded accordingly, clamoring for the FO to trade him at the deadline, if not sooner.  

A trade was never going to happen as Bichette's contract made him untradable. Once the season ends, however, he can opt out of the remaining two years of his contract, thus becoming an unrestricted FA. If he opts out, the Mets will have to pay him an additional 5m dollars, which would bring his compensation for a one year tenure with the team to an eye-popping $52M. 

The upcoming FA market is bereft of talented hitters, increasing Bichette's leverage. He also has independent reason to look for a long term deal before the new CBA goes into effect. 

I am less interested in what Bichette ultimately decides to do (and why) than what the impact will be on the Mets short and mid-term plans.

How does Bichette's decision impact what the Mets should do in putting together next year's roster?

Bichette's departure would create a hole at 3B, but would also provide 40 million that could be spent filling the void or elsewhere. With Jefferson Rojas knocking on the major league door, there is no chance the Mets will bring in someone from outside the organization for what is likely to be a one year tenure. The Mets have three in house options: Baty and Mauricio, two of original baby Mets on their way out the door, or Rojas who might be ready to take Bichette's place as soon as it becomes available.  

If the plan is to treat 2027 as a bridge year with an eye towards competing in 2028 you might think they should choose either Baty or Mauricio to start the season and then move either to the bench when Rojas is brought up -- as early, perhaps, as mid-season. 

On the other hand, if the plan is to continue amassing talent and adding youth to the major league roster (as they have done this year -- adding Benge, Ewing, Scott and Thornton), then the loss of Bichette provides the Mets with an opportunity to do just that.

Doing that may mean an earlier than expected promotion of Rojas, and the departure of Mauricio or Baty or both.

But taking advantage of the opportunity means the Mets would have to consider trading Lindor as well.  A Lindor trade will bring additional talented youngsters: how talented and how many will depend in part on how much of Lindor's remaining contract Cohen is willing to absorb.

Trading Lindor creates a hole at SS, likely to be filled, at least in the short term, by Mitch Voit.  Voit lacks Lindor's power and experience, but he is sound fielder, takes professional at bats, has a high BB IQ and has plus speed, which makes him a fit for the vision of the team represented by the likes of Ewing and Benge. 

No reason to stop there. If Bichette opts out and the team decides to continue the transition strategy they adopted in the draft and doubled down on at the deadline of amassing versatile talent throughout the organization, surely they should consider trading everyone who has value to others and who does not figure in their plans for the mid-term -- from 2028-2032.

That means they should be open to trading Francisco Alvarez, who is currently performing as a defensively challenged back-up to Torrens.  There are a number of other catchers in the organization who are likely to be better replacements for Torrens when it is time to move on from him.

Then there's the 40MM in salary savings.

If they trade Lindor as well, that number increases by half or more -- depending on how much of Lindor's salary Cohen will have to absorb. 

Of the 60 or so million, a good portion should go to enhancing the starting rotation in free agency.  Perhaps signing a Skubal to head the rotation would be easier on the pocketbook than it would be otherwise.

That's an attractive possibility, but a word of caution.  Even in his run of Cy Young awards, Skubal has been no better than a 6 inning pitcher: a great one at that, but not an innings eater.  And the Mets need more pitchers capable of pitching deeper into games.

Of course, dreams of Skubal in the rotation beg the question of whether he would be interested in signing on to a team that would have just replaced Bichette and Lindor with Rojas and Voit!

And more.  Sending Lindor packing along with Bichette would obviously make the Mets weaker next year, which would mean that the team was throwing away another year of Soto's prime by being non-competitive. It may also do Rojas and Voit more harm than good to be promoted prematurely.

It is possible that some of the money saved next year could help close the book on Semien and move Petri to 2B, bring in Goldschmidt or Walker to platoon with Young at 1B, if Polanco is unable to play the field or if he is unable to perform at all.

On this 'falling dominoes' scenario means Bichette's leaving triggers a complete overhaul of the infield, help for the pitching staff, a platoon at first base and a closing of the books on Semien's Mets career and maybe Polanco's as well.  Lots of additions some of which are obtained by subtraction!

Let's call this the 'Accelerating Transformation' option. 

We can contrast this with a minimalist 'Hold Steady' option.

The Hold Steady option replaces Bichette with Mauricio or Baty, with Rojas nipping at their heels but keeps everything pretty much as is, while using the additional 40M otherwise committed to Bichette to enhance pitching and other roster gaps on a short term basis in anticipation of more substantial changes delayed until 2028 and beyond.

What if Bichette stays?

Not the worst thing in itself, but it actually limits what you can do about Semien and Polanco, how much you can spend on FA pitching; and if you want to improve the talent level at the major league level it will likely be by trades.

But there are only a few trade strategies available.  You can trade from the major league roster or from the pool of prospects in the minors.  The latter approach is counterproductive and undermines the work done at the deadline.

Who's tradable at the major league level?  Well there are several people the Mets may want to trade, but fewer that other teams are likely to be interested in.  Maybe Senga falls into that group, but the two players who definitely do are Alvarez and Lindor.

Alvarez would be a nice piece for several teams and he may be able to bring back some valuable assets.  More likely, he has to be part of a package to bring back a starting pitcher or a number of prospects.  

If the team has Bichette at 3B they will be tempted to keep Lindor as his running mate.

If you aren't willing to trade Lindor, the only meaningful improvements that can be made would come courtesy of Cohen's pocketbook.  

Ironically, unless the Mets are prepared to trade Lindor and Alvarez, the truth is that Bichette's staying may have the unexpected consequence of killing the transformation momentum and the youth movement, while wasting another year of Soto's prime!  

Without digging into Cohen's pocketbook, there will be no closing the books on Semien or Polanco, let alone both of them

It also means that if you keep Lindor, any top flight pitcher you seek to secure through FA adds to the payroll for at least one year.  IMHO, this approach is lazy and does nothing to make the team better, and wastes time and Soto's prime. 

If Bichette remains a Met, the temptation will be to keep Lindor as well. The only tradable major leaguer who can bring back value would be Alvarez.  

You don't have any additional money to close the books on Semien, nor do you have any savings to spend on free agent starting pitching.  From my point of view, the team will look very much like this year's team but for a new manager and some additions to the FO.  

Again you have a continuum of options.

* Hold Steady

* Keep momentum going

If Bichette stays, the only way to keep the momentum going is to trade Lindor and Alvarez. Lindor provides some financial relief and can bring back significant talent the more of his salary Cohen is prepared to pay. 

Alvarez, in conjunction with some near ready existing minor league prospects, including a pitcher like Santucci or Tong could be a centerpiece in a trade for a front line pitcher like Skenes.  Just a thought.

What would I do?

I think you have to continue the transformation whether Bichette stays or goes. You have to infuse more of your prospect talent into the major league team, amass as much controllable talent as you can by trading the assets that are valuable to other teams but that do not figure in your future plans.  On the current Mets roster there are two players who fit that description: Lindor and Alvarez.

There may be others as the next season unfolds, including Senga and Manaea, both of whose contracts expire at the end of next season.  That's another reason why the Mets need to move tradable pieces now.  

Whether Bichette stays or goes, we should be looking to close the books on Semien, trade Lindor on the theory that it's better to be one year too early than one year too late. Trade Alvarez while teams still believe in him.  He's not the catcher of the future here.   

If Bichette stays, keeping the momentum going could be very costly to the owner.  He would have to pay Bichette's salary, pay to play in the FA pitching market, and pay to close the books on Semien.  If he keeps Semien, we miss the opportunity to promote a deserving prospect, whether Voit or Petri, or we end up paying 20M+ for an elderly, diminished bench player!

It's only worse, if the Mets decide to keep Lindor as well.

I'm sure I am in the minority, but I think we should all be hoping that Bichette opts out.  No disrespect for Bichette.  It's just that his staying hamstrings the Mets far more than I had previously thought it would.

This team isn't good enough to win as is.  There is nothing to be said for any hold steady strategy.  The quicker we get to putting together a team that can win, the better.

The future can't come soon enough for this Mets fan.

What do you think?

Cautious Optimist -- The Irony of it All

 

There is little resemblance between how the Mets performed before the All-Star Game (ASG) and since.  Before they were often unwatchable and nearly impossible to root for.  Ever since they have been a reliably good watch and pretty easy to root for. 

The dramatic improvement hasn't put an end to the complaints or the worries.  It's just changed the content of the complaints and the worries, both in ironic ways. 

My how things have changed

For the first two weeks of the season the goal was to make the playoffs.  Soon thereafter the goal of the fans was for the team to stop losing and to start playing competently and professionally.  Not long thereafter, the fans' mood turned considerably darker: trade everyone on the team other than the core around which they could plan their future resurrection; fire everyone who had a hand in creating the mess that the season had quickly become, notably Mendoza and Stearns. 

To a significant degree, the FO obviously agreed with the fan base.  By the ASG Mendoza was fired, but Stearns retained. By the trading deadline, Stearns managed to ship off a sizeable number of players though few, if any, of those traded were even a little bit responsible for the catastrophic season the Mets and their fans had been experiencing.  

In fact, the unit decimated by trades, the bullpen, was unquestionably the best performing group of the lot.  

The core was retained, though its membership increased in size to include Ewing as well as Benge, Scott and Thornton as well as McLean.

By the trade deadline, fans could take solace in the belief that their voices were heard, not entirely however.  If Cohen were to be believed, Stearns was on as firm a footing as ever.  Many of the culprits responsible for poor play on the field were still around:  Bichette, Senga and Manaea in particular.  Still the team had appeared to have turned a corner. 

All that remained was to identify a goal for the remainder of the season and execute on it.

The Goal Changes 

The loss of much of the bullpen meant that the team would be unable to hold many of the few leads the putrid offense would be able to secure.  Lindor's inevitable slow start upon his return from a long stay on the IL and an unexpected injury to Soto would insure that the top of the line-up (the only identifiable offensive strength of the team) would continue its season long slumber.

The offensive ineptitude would be further guaranteed by the continued appearance of Semien, Baty and Vientos in the line-up.  Better still, the presence of Manaea and Senga on the staff would produce both predictable losses the team having to rely on and an overworked bullpen, already significantly weakened by the deadline trades.

Every team has goals as does their fan base.  With so much already gone wrong and so much drek remaining with the promise of more to come, a new goal emerged:

     keep losing enough to ensure that the Mets would qualify for a top 6         pick in the upcoming draft.

If the Mets fell out of the top 6 they would fall to at least 17th given the penalty associated with their payroll (one might have thought that losing as much as they had and playing as poorly as they had would be embarrassing enough a penalty, but the Mets spent so much to accomplish that feat that the league rules allowed for an even worse penalty).  

The league rules meant that the Mets would have to lose sufficiently and embarrass themselves even more than they had already in order to secure a top six pick rather than the 17th or later pick.

Finally, a goal that was decidedly attainable.

The team Stearns had built over the offseason was nowhere near capable of attaining the pre-season goal of a deep playoff run.

But trading well performing relievers as well as a surprisingly effective starter in Clay Holmes, Stearns had managed to put together a team (or better, stitched a team together) more than capable of losing with impunity over what remained of the season.  A goal and a team up to the task of achieving it.

Not so fast, for what good would obtaining a top 6 player do if the coaching and development staff that would control his fate were as inept as they appeared to be. 

As badly as the Mets had performed in the first half of the current season, their minor league affiliates for the most part performed even worse.  Just a year ago the Mets farm system had risen from the ashes to a position in the top third of the league.

For reasons that have never been transmitted publicly, the FO decided to relieve most of those responsible for the turnaround in the standing of the farm system of their duties. New coaches and developmental staff and programs replaced them, and the results were simply atrocious for the first half of the season.

Once again the Mets organization had found itself fighting at cross purposes.  Losing would be easy, nearly guaranteeing a top draft talent to build around.  But in true Mets fashion the organization appeared to have replaced a develpment group and program that had just wrung up a major triumph with one that had managed to outdo the major league counterparts for incompetence.

The draft choice would be secured, but almost certainly to no avail.

How very Mets.  

The Irony of it All

Which, I hasten add, did nothing, if not remind me of a truly wonderful joke I may well have shared with you at some point already. It's so good, it's worth repeating.

Comedian: My people are often described as pessimistic: always expecting rain on even the most sun-drenched days. But this characterization, though nearly universal is in fact mistaken.  My people are a fundamentally optimistic group. To believe otherwise is to misunderstand the nature of optimism.

A pessimist, we agree is someone who looks at the world and sees nothing but carnage, starvation, lack of housing, poor health, hostility everywhere, economies that do not serve their people and drain their treasuries, and concludes, 'things couldn't possibly get worse.'  

In contrast, my people are optimists in that upon seeing the world precisely as the pessimist does respond instead, 'Don't be such a pessimist, of course they can.'

And so it has come to pass that all that is good has somehow made things immeasurably worse. 

Manaea has performed to the level of an acceptable back of the rotation lefty starter and has been a positive force in the clubhouse, a mentor to the young starters, an advisor to the manager. 

Going into the second week of August, no one would have thought we even needed a closer.  What would the point of having someone set aside to hold leads?  What leads?  And why would you want to protect them, should they, by accident, no doubt, occur?

Sporting an 0-8 record at the time, it made perfect sense to save Senga for the 'closer' role.  He wouldn't let us down.

But of course he has.  He has saved game after game, and in the course of doing so has become something of a workhorse in the bullpen.

The rest of the bullpen, stitched together on the fly, has exceeded expectations.  

The team is playing complementary baseball.  When the entire staff imploded in Miami allowing a dreadful two touchdowns worth of points, the offense responded with an equal number of touchdowns and a two point conversion.

And Bichette, the guy who the Mets pivoted to when Tucker took his decidedly good, but by no means, delicious talents to LA, the guy who performed so terribly in the first half of the season that the only reason he wasn't traded at the deadline was that taking on his contract would have been irrational for any team, has turned his season around, and is looking much more like the player the Mets thought they were getting than Tucker has looked like the player the Dodger's thought they were getting.

And the middle of the order -- which more often than not consists of Bichette, Benge and Young -- a guy everyone wanted the Mets to trade, a rookie who would not have made the OD roster had Tauchman (remember him) not been injured during the last week of Spring Training) and a journeyman 1B who would not have been playing regularly if at all had Polanco not been sidelined for pretty much the entire season -- has performed solidly if not spectacularly, hitting and driving in runs, providing a competent link from the front to the back of the line-up

But not just that:  the CF who provided an extraordinary spark in the lineup when Lindor was out and who at the ripe old age of 21 has laid claim to CF for at least the next couple of years, would never have gotten a chance had Robert not gone down with a series of injuries.

And what about Torrens, who has taken over a bit more than half of the catching duties since Andy Green took over as interim manager.  

Torrens has hit 7 home runs, slashed .333/.407/.750, and has struck out fewer than 10 times.

In contrast, Alvarez has hit fewer home runs, slashed .195/,346/.379 and has stuck out over 40 times.

The Mets have won roughly 50% of their games with Torrens behind the plate and about 33% of their games when Alvarez is.

The other defensive metrics are even more shocking.

Only Semien has managed to remain mediocre offensively and defensively throughout the transition.

Andy Green

There is little to say here.  No matter what he has been given to work with by the FO, Andy Green has performed extraordinarily.  He has a quiet, commanding presence, sets a terrific tone in the clubhouse and on the field, is honest, transparent, informative in his post game meetings with the media, and is balanced, not stoic.  He has a feeling for the game and the players.  The team reflects his basic characteristics.  I don't know what else can be said about him.  The performance on the field speaks for itself.

So What Now

Bad enough that the pre-season goal for this year never had a chance of succeeding, but the goal that so many have pivoted to as a second half of the season replacement -- one built on a foundation of reliably bad play  augmented by the trade of just about everyone who had played well -- is clearly in jeopardy.  

What should have been a layup has become a half court shot at the buzzer.

Does that make the season a total loss with both the pre-season and mid season goals kaput?  Not by my lights.  I've had my share of complaints in good times and bad.  It just doesn't make sense to complain about winning at this point-- especially when the team has done so little of it for so long.

My goals for the team are straightforward

I am going to root for the Mets to win every game, but more importantly, for them to perform professionally as they have in the past two months.  I am rooting for a winning culture to emerge, for optimism to replace gloom.  I could care less about the difference between the 6th and 17th pick in the draft.  

I don't believe that you can have too much talent.  So I will grant that ex ante the #6 player is likely a better player (i.e. has more potential) than will be the #17 player.  But there are too many variables that impact ultimate performance and too little difference between the two draft positions to be as concerned as so many Mets fans are about the team falling from the top 6.

In my opinion, the biggest issue is determining which year we should be targeting for the start of a largely uninterrupted run of deep playoff runs and occasional world championships.  (While continuing to fill gaps and clean up problems in the FO operations and minor league development staff.)

No complaints from me if those goals are met.  I have my worries and concerns.  My worry:  I have not abandoned my gripes about how to teach movement patterns in both pitching and hitting, especially the misuse of available technologies).

I worry about how the Mets will respond in devising a roster for next year should Bichette decide to opt out.

I worry about what Cohen will do with both Semien and Polanco.  I know what Hedge Fund managers would do with their portfolios under these conditions.  But surprisingly (to me) Cohen has not been as committed to closing positions, buying back puts he has sold, when the evidence is clear and the trajectory clearer still. 

I am not in the business of predicting what Cohen will do, but I can indicate what I would do if Bichette stays or goes, and explain why; and I can indicate what I would do with Semien and Polanco.

But that will have to wait for the next post.

Ever the optimist -- whatever that means!

Cautious Optimist -- Where are they now? Top Prospects of the Dodgers and Yankees 2020-2025

 

Let's make this one short and (maybe sweet)

It is hard not to be optimistic about the state of the Mets farm system after the most recent draft and David Stearns' deadline trades.  The optimism is warranted by the performances of the new additions thus far.  Indeed, what had been a completely dormant group of minor league affiliates has sprung to life as if each team had experienced a blood transfusion.

Great and exciting.  Even the Mets themselves appear to have been rejuvinated by the injection of new talent backing them up and in some cases nipping at their heels.  Arguably, the future is brighter than it was a month ago.  It may even be bright: full stop.

You may recall that while the minor league performane was in fact dreadful for much of the season, I held the contrarian position that the farm system had done a very good job of producing major league talent over the past four or so years. 

Baty, Vientos, Alvarez, Mauricio, McLean, Scott, Ewing and Benge have all spent considerable time at the major league level, the last four establishing themselves as potential longterm solutions even as the first four have fallen short of expectations.

Alvarez will stick around until one of the handful of promising catchers in the system replaces him.  Mauricio is a wild card.  Vientos and Baty are likely to be shown the door.

At worst, it looks like the Mets are batting around .500 or so on the performance of their prospects that have made it to the majors.

If the next group performs no worse -- and there is a reason to believe right now that they will perform significantly better -- the optimism and enthusiasm of the last month will have been well founded.

Me?  My natural instinct is to be cautious about projecting the future -- especially when it comes to teams I root for, whatever the sport.

So in the name of tempering enthusiasm, I decided to take a look at how the top prospects of the four teams we aspire to be mentioned in the same paragraph with have fared over the past five years in projecting talent at the next level.

So I looked at the consensus top prospects of the Dodgers, Yankees, Braves and Brewers from 2020-2025 to see what has become of them in the hopes that it might inform our view about what to expect from our own top prospects.  

In this post I focus on the Dodgers and the Yankees.  Next time I take up the Braves and Brewers, and see if we can make any useful projections about our recent treasure trove of talented farmhands.  Or if we can draw any meaningful conclusions at all.

This is what I discovered about the Dodgers and Yankees

Dodgers

2020: Gavin Lux (SS/2B).  Lux was the Dodgers number 1 prospect and ranked in the top 5 entering the 2020 season.  He was traded to the Reds in 2025, who in January of this year traded him to the Tampa Bay Rays. He has not played in 2026 due to injury -- which apparently has not hurt the Rays who are currently in first place in the Eastern Conference of the American League. In 2024, his last year with the Dodgers, Lux batted .251, hit 10 HRs and drove in 50 runs. That would place him above Semien, but far below what we are expecting from Voit and Petri both!

2021: Keibert Ruiz (C).  After replacing Lux as the number 1 prospect in the Dodgers farm system, when Lux was promoted to the majors, Ruiz was traded in 2021 to the Nationals as part of the package for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner.  He has proven to be an average defensive catcher for the Nationals, and is hitting better this year than he has in any year previously but has managed to hit only 8 HR.  He is marginally better defensively than Alvarez, a significantly better hitter this year but not a power threat.  He wouldn't make the current Mets roster as either the starting or back-up catcher.

2022: Diego Cartaya (C)  Cartaya replaced Ruiz as the Dodgers number 1 prospect (and played the same position), but was traded to the Minnesota Twins for a minor league pitcher. The Twins let him go in 2025 and he signed a minor league contract with San Francisco Giants who released him at the end of April this year.  He is currently a free agent.  He shouldn't be expecting a call from the Mets.

2023: Michael Busch (C/INF): Busch was traded to the Cubs as Freeman was blocking him at 1B.  In return the Dodgers received two minor leaguers and Busch had a very good season in 2025 and has been solid if unspectacular in 2026.  He would likely be starting over Young on the Mets, but it would be close on the merits, but nevertheless decisive.

2024: Dalton Rushing (C/OF): What's with all these catchers?  By 2024 Rushing was the consensus number 1 catching prospect in baseball. (Replacing, guess who? Alvarez of course). He reached the majors playing for the Dodgers in 2025 and played about 75 games this year prior to being sidelined by injury.  He backs up Will Smith, one of the best in baseball, and has been solid but not special.  He was hitting around .250 and had very modest OBP and slugging averages.  He's a better defender than Alvarez, has comparable HRs in many fewer games and more RBI in fewer games. I might prefer him to Alvarez, but neither of them strikes me as a future all-star.

2025:  Josue De Paula (RHP / OF).  Can't count Sasaki here, so the top rated player was DePaula, who is from Brooklyn NY, and related to the Marbury and Telfair cousins both of whom attended my High School, Abraham Lincoln.  He's a speedster with power and very much in the mold of Carson Benge.  Right now he is killing it in AA ball.  He's likely to make it to the majors sometime next year as the Dodger outfield is aging and spotty in places.  It is also not deep.  Makes me wonder what both the Dodgers and the Mets were thinking offering Tucker outrageous money.  I wouldn't want Tucker blocking De Paula any more than I'd want him blocking Benge.

Yankees

2021: Jasson Domínguez (OF): Ranked as the number 1 prospect in the Yankee organization every year from 2020-2025, Dominguez has made it to the Yankees but has performed poorly defensively and has yet to establish himself as a major league starter, let alone a cornerstone in the OF.  The object of a good deal of trade rumors at thie year's deadline.  The Yankees have soured pretty quickly on someone who was their consensus best prospect over the past five years!  Either that or they missed something that has been pretty plain to everyone this past year -- Yankee fan or not: the guy is not an acceptable defensive outfielder.

2023: Anthony Volpe (SS): Ranked as the co-top prospect in the organization going into the  2023 season, Volpe made it to the majors after a sparkling Spring Training.  He flourished quickly, but his success was short lived as he regressed both offensively and defensively over the past two seasons and has been replaced by someone else on this list. Volpe is back playing in AAA.  I expect him to be a decent major leaguer, but on another team.

2023: Austin Wells (C); Like Volpe, Wells was a heralded prospect in 2023 and made his way to the big league club where he performed reasonably defensively, but has been a major disappointment offensively.  He could not make the Mets roster.  Whatever qualms and doubts I have about Alvarez, I wouldn't trade him for any of the players mentioned here so far.  The Yankees were desperate for a replacement at the deadline and that led other teams to demand too much in return for a catcher.  The Yankees would not accept the kind of overpayment that would have been necessary to find Wells' replacement.  I don't blame them.  They would get to the playoffs with Wells or with any reasonable replacement for him.  On the other hand, no reasonable replacement for him would have been a difference maker in their chances at a WS title.

2023: Oswald Peraza (INF): With Dominguez holding down the top position most of the past five years, Peraza along with Volpe and Wells were relegated to second fiddle.  Didn't do him much good, however, as he was traded in 2025 to the Angels after disappointing performance with the big club.  All he could bring back was a minor league outfielder and additional bonus money for signing international players.  He has struggled mightily this year and is putting up Semien numbers but at considerably less cost.

2025: George Lombard Jr. (SS/3B): Whether Lombard Jr. proves to be the next Derek Jeter, it won't take much for him to make their forget Anthony Volpe.  Lombard moved quickly through the Yankees system and was called up to the big club less than a month ago to much fanfare.  He has performed well enough and has provided both an offensive and defensive spark. I imagine he will stick around and may be the Yankee SS for quite some time.  The most likely of this group to be a successful major leaguer.

Conclusion

I'm going to withhold judgment until we look at what the Brewers and Braves prospect projection record looks like.  But what I find interesting is not just the hype around various players, but just how hard it is to predict success.  

This harkens back to the second series of posts I published upon joining the crew here.  

I argued then that the greatest problem organizations faced in their efforts to construct a rational roster is their inability to project performance of their minor league talent at the next level.  This lack of confidence leads them to overspend on free agents and to make trades that have outcomes that vary widely.   Trades should be mutually beneficial to both teams, but the level of uncertainty about expected performance leads to a level of randomness that makes the mutually beneficial scenario the outlier, not the norm.

How will our talent work out.  I don't know.  But as I mentioned in my earlier posts, the best way to gain confidence in the projections the FO makes is to make each stage in the minors as close as possible to what the next stage will look like: keep it continuous to the extent possible.  Setting Florida aside, the Mets at least keep the weather in April and May constant from High A to AAA.  It sucks for everyone!  Right Tom?

And how about those dimensions?  

We'll return to those issues next time.