Mack Ade – Noon Report – 8-3-13 – John Sickles, 20-year olds, Kyle Johnson

John Sickles featured yesterday his pre-season ranking of the New York Mets prospects http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/8/2/4582092/new-york-mets-top-20-pre-season-prospects-in-review and it’s not who he ranked, but who he didn’t.

Strengthening what we have been saying here on the Mack’s Mets Report, there has to be ballplayers in every organization that simply never get the chance to prove they have the ability (or renewed ability) to play regularly at the major league level.

Look at who Sickles had below and of the prospect levels, last of which was C+:

OTHERS: Wuilmer Becerra, OF; Matt Bowman, RHP; Luis Cessa, RHP; Gonzalez Germen, RHP; Erik Goedell, RHP; Gilbert Gomez, OF; Darin Gorski, LHP; Matt Koch, RHP; Juan Lagares, Of; Vicente Lupo, OF; Steven Matz, LHP; Colin McHugh, RHP; Tyler Pill, RHP; Cesar Puello, OF; Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B; Ahmed Rosario, SS; Logan Taylor, RHP; Wilfredo Tovar, SS.

Next came a complete snubbing (and classless shot) of Cesar Puello:

The gaping hole in the pre-season list is Cesar Puello, of course, who was relegated to the Grade C/others section. I had seen him flail helplessly at too much breaking stuff to rate him more highly, even though I respected his tools. But here he sits at .328/.405/.550 with 24 steals in Double-A. Sometimes the tools guys figure it out. Of course, there's the little problem of Biogenesis. . .I don't know how you account for things like that.

Lastly, he comments on the progress now:

The big league team is 10 games under .500 and in rebuilding mode. They've gotten some use out of Juan Lagares, and Josh Satin has been great thus far. I didn't have him on this list, but in past years I've rated him as a sleeper to watch closely, as laid out in this Prospect of the Day article from last week. I don't think he's the long-term solution at first base but I think he can be a useful complementary player.

Couldn’t you just say ‘I fucked up’ regarding both Lagares and Satin and kudos to Germer while I’m at it?

 

I wanted to spend a few minutes on Mets prospect outfielder Brando Nimmo, who isn’t having the greatest year in Savannah. Nimmo has 100 strikeouts in 287 at bats at Savannah (A-level). He’s also 20 years old. My granddaughter is 20 years old and just completed her freshman year in college. A lot of the fans out in Met-land (and trust me, ALL of the Blog owners) expect these kids to be playing at a professional level… NOW. They’re 20 fucking years old! Do you honest think evaluating a 20-year old’s UZR, Dips, VORP, or xFIP is something you should be wasting your time with?

When I was in advertising, the chief ‘demographic’ advertising agencies based their media buys on was trying to reach ‘adults between the ages of 25-54’. I told this to one of my program director once and gave him pictures of a 25-year old female and a 54-year male. I asked him to bring me back a list of songs that both people would love to hear on a radio station. Obviously, the exercise ended there.

Adults 25-54 wasn’t a demographic, it was a family reunion. And a 20-year old playing baseball is far from a 27-year old seasoned veteran.

The one thing Sandy Alderson brought to this team was an emphasis on using early round draft picks on 18-year olds straight out of high school. The first thing I try to do is never quote anything they do during that same year after they sign a professional contract. You’re putting a teenage into a brand new world that is going to take some time to get used to (called ‘the grind’). That being said, the following are the guys that we’re really not going to know what you have until they turn around 22-23 years old. Will they make the grade? Are they the superstars the Mets brass projected them to be when they threw all that bonus money at them?

They are:

20-yr olds –

CF Brandon Nimmo – Savannah - .258

SP Michael Fulmer – St. Lucie – 1-3, 3.82

SP Robert Gsellman – Brooklyn – 2-2, 2.09

SS Phillip Evans – Savannah - .211

19-yrs. old –

SS Gavin Cecchini – Brooklyn - .215

2B Brian Kaupe – GCL Mets - .222

SP Corey Oswalt –Kingsport -  0-1, 3.46

C Tomas Nido – Brooklyn - .219

18-yrs. old –

1B Dominic Smith – GCL Mets - .245

SP Andrew Church – GCL Mets – 2-1, 4.76

CF Ivan Wilson – GCL Mets - .208

P Casey Meisner – GCL Mets - 1-2, 3.38

SS Luis Guillorme – GCL Mets - .269

 

We’ve applauded Sandy Alderson’s ability to make a trade… Zack Wheeler, Travis d’Arnaud, Eric Young Jr., Kyle Johnson… Kyle Johnson? Who the heck is Kyle Johnson?

Johnson was a Los Angeles Angels 25th round draft pick in 20102 out of Washington State. He was traded earlier this year to the Mets for opening day centerfielder Collin Cowgill.

Scouts loved Johnson. He’s a Lenny Dykstra-type all-or-nothing speedster with excellent upside, the kind of ceiling and tools that Cowgill never came close to having. He played high school in a small Idaho town and went on to the Pac-12 Washington State, where he had trouble getting on the field due to the fact that the team also had players like Jared Prince, Jason Monda, Patrick Claussen, and Derek Jones in their outfield.

 Johnson refocused his game by making is mark in summer ball, being named to the All-WCL First Team in 2009 and earning All-Star honors in the New England Collegiate Baseball League. In both of those years, he led the circuit in steals.

He finally became a starter as a senior and shined: .309/.408/.401/.809, 17-SB.’s a typical Alderson-Moneyball type OBP guy that will do anything it takes to get on base. At the time of the trade he ranked 4th in the Midwest League in stolen bases (30) and 8th in walks (38). Scouts already project him as a speedy utility outfielder in the majors with compaisons that range from Reggie Willits to Angel Pagan.

As a Met, Johnson started slowly for Savannah (27-AB, .185) but was promoted to St. Lucie due to a slot opened due to injuries. Through 8-1, he’s hitting .253 (83-AB) with a .318 OBP and seven steals. Naturally, he’s the new Lucy leadoff hitter.

Mack Ade – PM Report – 6-26-13 – Jayce Boyd, Kyle Johnson, Michael Fulmer, Eric Young, Gary Seagren

                                   1B Jayce Boyd - .371/.443/.509/.952, 275-AB, 6-HR, 53-RBI, 34-K, 35-BB

                                These are Boyd’s combined stats this season for Savannah and St. Lucie. They really are kind of special. I watched him play in Savannah and, I have to tell you, I didn’t think he’d actually hit better at the next level. That being said, he’s been an instant hit in Florida and, along with C Kevin Plawecki, has given thw Mets there a well needed shot of offense.

                                                I just can’t see any future for this kid as a Met. You have Ike Davis ahead of him and Dominic Smith one year behind. You try and figure out why a team drafts a first baseman in the sixth round. Was it an honest attempt to secure an insurance policy for Davis or was it an early roster fill?

                                                I’ve spent some time with Jayce as well as his family and ex-coach. I’d like to think the Mets recognized that Boyd had always been a hitting machine in college for a major school (Florida State) in a major conference (ACC). Boyd hit, in his three years there, .326, .335, and .376 and I remember draft day well. I was shocked that he was still on the board in the sixth round and thrilled he was picked by the Mets (though I do have to say that a hometown favorite of mine, St. John’s Kyle Hansen, was picked next at 201^st overall).

                                                Boyd’s going nowhere the rest of this season and don’t be surprise you don’t see him in Arizona during the off-season. We have to recognize his potential at this point and raise him to ‘blue’ prospect’ status.

The Los Angeles Angels have acquired OF Collin Cowgill from the Mets for minor league OF Kyle Johnson

                                The Mets tried dealing Cowgill earlier this week for a higher level prospect. But it didn’t work out. Johnson is a non-prospect ex-25^th round draft pick (2012) out of Washington State. He actually was having a pretty dam good year for the Angels’ A-level team: 245-AB, .310/.403/.424/.827. There is absolutely no pop here. Was the #10 prospect in the LAA system and did have 30 stolen bases, but he’s a 23-year old playing A-ball. 

                                   Michael Fulmer: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K –

                                                Wow… I didn’t see this one happening.

                                                                        Fulmer is technically on the Savannah DL roster, though he would be pitching St. Lucie if he never was injured. Right now, the Lucy rotation is a 5-man (Domingo Tapia, Angel Cuan, Alex Panteleodis, Rainey Lara, Matt Bowman) with the Sand Gnats’ Steven Matz knocking on the door. Do you promote Matz and put Fulmer back in Savannah to take the pressure off, or do you keep Fulmer ahead of the Matz, both early draft picks?

                                                                        This is not the time of the year to have a six-man rotation.

                                                                        Me? I want Fulmer in St. Lucie, where he belongs, but I also want Matz there.

                                                It’s time to clean out the closet, starting with D.J. Mitchell and Chris Schwinden in Las Vegas. Replace them with Logan Verrett and Erik Goeddel.

                                                My Binghamton rotation for the remainder of the season would be Noah Syndergaard, Domingo Tapia, Cory Mazzoni, Mark Cohoon, and Darin Gorski.

                                                That leaves me Fulmer, Matz, Cuan, Pants, and Lara in Lucy.        

David Wright on Eric Young –

“He’s been a shot in the arm for us. I think it’s unfair to expect him to keep up at this pace. He’s been great in the outfield. He’s set the table. And he’s provided some thump as far as some extra-base hits. He can steal a bag. And I think sometimes pitchers worry about him on the base paths and might leave one over the plate for you.”

MetsBlog quoted DePo saying that this was the second time he had tried to purchase Young. It’s amazing how easy it is for someone to fall in love with an outfielder that can hit .250. Still, I can see him sticking in 2014 as the ‘third best’ in a new three-man outfield. 

Gary Seagren -

Hi Mack, A thought just hit me the other day and I had to laugh. Can you imagine a scenario where we're in the wildcard race (don't stop posting the standings please) and come Sept. we're forced to "Strasburg" Harvey OMG! Come on stop laughing it COULD happen and admit it your thinking it too.

I haven’t spent any time thinking about pitch count. In fact, I can’t remember the last time, as either a Mets fan or writer, that this subject has ever come up. I have put back up the ‘wild card race’ as well as keeping up the ‘draft pick race’. Call it a ‘half-full, half-empty double post. There one main reason you aren’t going to have to worry about becoming a payoff team. There simply are too many teams that are needed to be passed in the race. It simply isn’t going to happen this year.

Anyway I agree with your recent post but I wouldn't go after any of the Eithier , Choo , Ellsbury troika cause we've been down that road WAY to many times before so I say stay with pitching, pitching and more pitching along with using the rest of the season to gauge Ike, Lucas, Travis Rueben and in Sept. Montero, Puello and a cast of thousands for the bullpen. Look if Harvey, Wheeler and Parnell are for real that goes a long way toward respectability and I know how you feel about prospects vs. major leaguers but if Choo, Ellsbury and Eithier are the answer then we're asking the wrong questions.

                I have no problem with Choo.

I like the stability of the past week, but that’s going to change when Ike Davis returns to first base and Lucas Duda goes back to left field.

I would play Eric Young, Duda, and Marlon Byrd… every night. I would establish this as the level of talent that my outfield needs to be judged by. Juan Lagares and Jordany Valdespin would be my utility outfielders until Justin Turner or Ruben Tejada returned. Then, I would replace Valdespin with Andrew Brown.

Until then, I would send down Brown with Kirk Nieuwenhuis. I’m probably done with the whole Captain Kirk thing. Banish him to the… no, that’s Superman. Just leave him at Vegas. The showgirls will love him.

As for Valdespin, he has refused to hit enough to be marketed. Now he’s just a bad hitting, average fielding, pain in the ass. Let him leadoff for Las Vegas until the phone rings some day.

In my opinion SS is our most pressing need and if I'm trading a major prospect chip that's the position I want filled after the dismal performance of Tejada and the lack of SS ready prospects in the system. I will live with defense in the OF and we certainly can find a suitable mix from among say an inexpensive resign of Young and Byrd and someone from among Den Decker, Puello and Lagares. We've stayed with the Sandy plan this long and we're finally starting to see the benefits so let’s stay the course a bit longer. Your opinion's always welcome.

I did find it interesting that everyone gave up on Tejada as soon as his defense started to stink up the place. In addition, he seemed to actually not care regarding the quality (or lack of) of his work. I’d like to give him the rest of the year to prove his long term value.