Stephen Guilbert - 5 and 15: Why Jon Niese Can Win 15 Games in 2012

Five Reasons Jon Niese Could Win 15 Games in 2012: -

1.) Change: One of the bigger stories in camp this spring has been Niese’s work on his changeup—a pitch he threw last year 5.1% of the time. While Niese and pitching coach Dan Warthen do not seem to have a specific percentage in mind for this season, simply getting a better feel for the pitch and being able to rely on it will be key. It will give our young southpaw another pitch to keep hitters off balance and will be just the weapon Niese needs to push him into the league of elite lefties in the NL.

2.) Health: Niese’s season has ended abruptly each of the past two years--throwing 173.2 and 157.1 innings respectively in 2010 and 2011. Giving Niese a full season of something like 35 starts and close to 200 innings gives him more opportunity for wins. Past the 15 wins threshold we would all love to Niese get to by season’s end, getting Jon up to 35 starts and 200 innings means fewer starts given to replacement pitchers and better chances at winning ball games. If Niese is going to make the jump to the next echelon of NL starting pitchers, he needs to stay on the field and pitch effectively late in the season.

3.) Projection: From 2010 to 2011, Niese’s Ks/9 improved from 7.67 to 7.89, his groundball rate went up a notch from 47.7% to 51.5% and his strikeout to walk ratio (K:BB) improved an impressive amount—from 2.39 to a very strong 3.14. A lot of that improvement can be attributed to a drop in walk rate (2.52 BB/9 in 2011, down from 3.21 in 2010). Past that, Niese’s groundball to flyball ratio improved from an already impressive 1.5 to 1.84 and although the ERA was not necessary pretty, advanced metrics suggest luck had a lot to do with that. More on that later. In short, advanced metrics already suggest Niese is improving. He is striking more hitters out, allowing fewer walks, and has matured from a groundball pitcher to a groundball machine. If Niese continues to improve as he did from his freshman to sophomore campaigns, he will not only win 15 games, but be one of the most effective lefties in the majors.

4.) The Nose: Call me crazy but I buy into the idea that Niese is able to train more effectively and breathe better after his rhinoplasty. I do not believe Niese got the surgery for cosmetic purposes and, if his breathing does improve, it means better longevity within innings, in starts, and for the longevity of the season. While only one factor in many that suggest to me that Niese will have a break out season, I do believe it will positively effect his season and help his stamina both in short bursts and over the course of 2012.

5.) Bad Luck: Fan Graphs covered Niese’s misfortune last year well in this article. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP and xFIP) weigh just the factors a pitcher can control and arrive at a value for what the pitcher’s ERA should have been. If you normalize all of the balls in play (uncontrollable by the pitcher’s pitches after the ball leaves the bat) to the league average and appropriately weigh the factors the pitcher does control (a walk is less harmful than a home run, for example), you get a value that better represents a pitcher’s ERA than the well-known Earned Run Average. xFIP is the same metric but it replaces the pitcher’s Home Run to Fly Ball ration with that of the league average. Hardball Times claims that xFIP “has the highest correlation with future ERA of all the pitching metrics” (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-well-can-we-predict-era/). In short, these are numbers to consider when evaluating a player. All you need to know is this: Jon Niese’s 2011 ERA = 4.40. Jon Niese’s 2011 FIP = 3.36. Jon Niese’s 2011 xFIP = 3.28. Niese was unlucky last year. His BABIP (batting average for balls in play) was .333, well above the league average. With some statistical regression to a mean, Niese will have a much more impressive ERA and, while allowing fewer runs, will win more games. A lot more games. This is the best evidence that Niese will break out this year.

6.) Improved Fastball Velocity: Yes, I know I said five reasons, but after looking at Niese’s advanced metrics I cannot ignore the fact that Niese’s fastball velocity improved nearly 1 MPH from just below 90 (89.6) in 2010 to just above (90.5) in 2011. If Niese can have one more year of fastball improvement and start averaging above 91, maybe close to 92, he becomes a different pitcher. If Niese starts games with his fastball sitting in the low-90s and touching 94-95 and you add that to a change at 82, his cutter, and then his wipeout curve, you have a Jon Lester. This is where Niese is heading in 2012 and this is why he will win 15 games in 2012.

* Before you go crazy on me for suggesting Niese could be as good as Lester in 2012, consider the following: Niese’s SIERA rating in 2011 was 3.42 (SIERA is, in my opinion, the best metric for determining a pitcher’s value and effectiveness), one of the best in the league. 18^th, to be exact, for pitchers who threw at least 150 innings. Some names around him…Michael Pineda right in front of him at 17^th, Josh Beckett behind him at 19^th, Tim Lincecum at 25^th and…yep…Jon Lester at 30^th.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-well-can-we-predict-era/

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/hurler_adds_l6otkbUBhD3oHXJ4Lthp8H?utm_medium=twitter&utm_content=Mets&utm_source=dlvr.it

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4424&position=P#advanced

http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2011/04/mets_pitcher_jon_niese_works_t.html