So the Mets bench right now includes the likes of newcomers Jonathan Villar, Albert Almora, Jr., Jose Martinez, Luis Guillorme and Tomas Nido pretty much for sure.
The 5th outfielder is currently listed as 30 year old Guillermo Heredia, who has never had much success in the minors. Between the Mariners, Rays and Pirates he accumulated about two full seasons’ worth of numbers and they’re not pretty. Expect a .239 AVG, 8 HRs and 35 RBIs with 3 SBs and 5 times getting caught. It starts off well, but goes downhill in a hurry.
The starting lineup is chock full of offense which is fine
as long as defense doesn’t matter. Right
now you have Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, J.D. Davis, James McCann, Dom Smith, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto. There are changes at catcher and shortstop,
but otherwise it looks an awful lot like the group from last year.
Over the past few days there were rumors about the Mets being long from done in this off-season. First came the pitcher news about guys like Jake Arrieta, James Paxton and others who are there for the taking in the free agent field. That’s the easy approach to take as all it takes is money and a convincing argument that your deal is the best one for them.
Right now with David Peterson and
Joey Lucchesi being the 4th and 5th starters in whatever
sequence you prefer, it’s a steep downhill drop after the top three of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman.
Then came the rumors about trade possibilities as some clubs are seeking to get out from under long term financial commitments before the mostly fan-less season begins. One of the hotter rumors that’s resurfaced is the Mets interest in obtaining unwanted Chicago Cub Kris Bryant who, on the surface, appears to be something of a bad fit. He’s earning $19.5 million this season and the Windy City team actually considered releasing him rather than be on the hook for his salary.
It’s a lot different from Francisco Lindor who was not wonderful in 2020 but has been every single season prior. The sweetener to that deal was, of course, Carlos Carrasco, who will anchor a spot near the top of the Mets rotation for the next 2-3 years at $12 million each for 2021 and 2022 with year three being a $14 million salary or a $3 million buyout.
Their Carlos Carrasco is Kyle Hendricks who has spent his entire career with the Chicago Cubs. At age 30 he’s gone 69-48 with a career ERA of just 3.12 while maintaining a WHIP of just 1.105 while not being a huge strikeout pitcher.
The fine print in his contract is what makes
him the better get than Bryant. He’s
under contract now for just $14 million per year during 2021, 2022 and 2023
with a 4th year option at $16 million or a $1.5 million buyout. That’s an even better pitcher than Carrasco
for around the same price range locked in for a longer period of time.
So, what would it take to grab Hendricks from the Cubbies while agreeing to pay for a single year of Kris Bryant? Why only a single year? Well, for starters, he needs to prove he’s still the guy who once won the Rookie of the Year back in 2015 and followed that up as the National League MVP in 2016. Those days were indeed spectacular, but the last three years have not been as impressive.
In 2018 he only hit 13 HRs. In
2019 the power returned with 31 dingers but only 77 RBIs. Last year was a lost cause with 4 HRs and 11
RBIs. Now, to be fair, both in 2018 and
last year he was dealing with injuries.
His career batting average of .282 is impressive and he’s an above average
fielder.
So it could go either way for Bryant. If he has a bad year, then the club likely doesn’t want to retain him. If he has a walk-year All Star type performance then he’s going to try to get a huge bump in pay for many, many years. His agent, Scott Boras, would insist upon that.
Given that the Mets must deal with Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto, NoahSyndergaard and potential free agent Marcus Stroman when 2021 ends, there’s not
a lot of pennies in the piggy bank to satisfy all of them.
Consequently, think of the prospective deal as a trade for Kyle Hendricks and a salary for a year of Kris Bryant. It’s not much unlike the Mets going after Mike Hampton and being forced to take on the salary of unwanted outfielder Derek Bell.
Without paying $40 million for a
single year of Trevor Bauer, the Mets actually save money on this deal up
front, and even more so if they obligate the Cubs to take on someone like
Jeurys Familia as part of the deal (along with decent prospects).
The Cincinnati Reds rumors won’t die either. In that one it would be third baseman Eugenio Suarez and pitcher Sonny Gray coming back to the Mets. That’s not bad either, but I’d feel more
confident in having Hendricks than Gray, though Suarez is a much better long
term get than Bryant.
The fans are waiting for SOMETHING to happen in the
post-Bauer, post Realmuto and post-Springer off-season. What’s been done so far has been good. However, it’s not quite enough.
7 comments:
Reese, tough decisions lie ahead, but if they are made well, this will still be a great off-season for the Mets.
If Vientos were to go in a Bryant trade along with JD Davis, I would think that is all the Cubs should expect - sorry. They would save $17 million this year by dumping Bryant, and might get a guy in Davis who is almost as good, plus a prospect who could be their 3B perhaps as early as next year at minimum wage? Remember, Vientos played all of 2019 at Columbia, and in 2020, most likely would have played in A and AA. It is not impossible that he could be MLB-ready by OD 2022. How is that not even?
I could live without Vientos as long as Baty is the real deal. I still think that Jose Peroza, who is younger than Baty, might possibly be a good future 3B too. We'll see if Peroza can hit as well outside of rookie ball as he did at age 19 in 2019 in rookie ball (.263/.330/.514). He turns 21 on Dom Smith's shared birthday of June 15. And he only made 3 errors in 36 games at 3B in 2019.
And if we can't sign Jimi Hendrix, let's get Kyle Hendricks.
One year of a player coming off not just a down year, but an injured shoulder as well, is worth a player labeled “almost as good” - who has three years of control left - and a top prospect? I disagree. I don’t mind Vientos, but I wouldn’t give up more than that. Go with Davis and stop acting like your problem is third base! The problem is the outfield defense, specifically left field and at this point, fixing it is pretty difficult.
I don’t know about you guys but I would be willing to part with Alonso in a deal for Either Chapman/ Laureano with A’s or Ramirez/Plesac with Indians.
Say a package of Alonso, JD, Kilome and Vientos for either trade option?
Or with Cubs maybe a trade for Kendricks and Kimbrels full contract for JD, Vientos and Kilome?
I would even consider a trade involving taking on Jason Hayward’s contrac with Kendricks but they take Cano, Familia and Betances off our hands? He plays a very decent CF and can hit .260. That’s would be good for me, what do y’all think?
I'm not in favor of a Kris Bryant deal at this time. Don't want to give up a lot of value for a one-year rental. Would rather start season with JD at 3B and see how it goes. Guy might be, very possibly, a big-time MLB bat with an okay-enough glove. Suddenly we seem to be in a hurry to throw that away because of the Brodie Stigma.
Mets still have weird bullpen and basically nobody as the #5 starter.
Assuming that money is a limitless resource, I'd prefer to save that $20 million -- and our prospect resources -- and watch the team play, and then strategically address things in July if necessary. Could be that one of our starters goes down. McCann gets hurt. Something happens.
The Mets might need an outfielder. Or a starting pitcher. Or more help in the pen. Upgrading at 3B doesn't strike me as pressing at this point. And when you consider possible names given up for one year of Bryant, who has been brittle of late, this doesn't strike me as the win-now & build for the future model.
That said: Bryant could be amazing for a season. He certainly fits the Sandy fascination of POWER trumps all.
The Braves have always been smarter than the Mets. They've done extremely well with big, one-year deals for hitters: Donaldson & Ozuna, back to back. That kind of hitter, playing on the final year of a contract, can be a huge plus. So maybe Sandy is looking at copying that? However, the Braves just signed those guys, they didn't surrender serious talent and YEARS of low-cost team control. Cost matters.
Remind me: Why do we have Villar again? Can someone explain it to me? To backup SS & 2B? We passed on Gonzales who actually plays 3B and OF . . . for a guy who pretty much doesn't. Does Sandy not believe in McNeil? Or Guillorme?
I'd love to have a #5 pitcher. Bobby Valentine used to have a great line about that, not caring what # a pitcher was in the team rankings. He said [sic]: "The guy starting today is our #1."
I think Joey Lucchesi was an interesting pickup. San Diego had upgraded, so didn't have room for him anymore. His age 26 season showed some promise, and he's a lefty. He threw 5 IP in 2020 and gave up 13 hits. So that fits the profile.
That really seems to be the new Moneyball for the Mets. Identify guys who showed promise in the past, and who absolutely sucked beyond belief in 2020, and sign them cheaply (or in Bryant's case, not cheaply). It's a strategy!
I still like the May signing best of all. Just find a guy who is actually, consistently really good and pay a fair market price for him.
And I still think the Mets are going to be good in 2021. Cohen gave Sandy a LOT of money to work with and it can't help but help.
Jimmy
Jimmy, good point on the new moneyball thinking based on a poor 2020, it’s not a bad strategy. Also, you sold me on Alonso yesterday. I tend to be impatient... years of waiting for trains and buses, I guess.
Gus,
I never sold anyone on anything before! Very exciting!
As I've said all along, ideally I'd want one more year to evaluate Smith, Alonso, and Davis. They all earn nothing and that's extremely valuable when you are trying to pay out big contracts to Thor, Lindor, Conforto, etc.
Jimmy
Post a Comment