Tom Brennan - THE SIMPLE MATH OF METS' PLAYERS

We have all sorts of stats floating around in baseball.  All sorts of analytics.  I love analytics to a degree.  

At some point, as a fan though, I do not want to immerse myself into all the analytics out there.  I choose not to. 

Because, at the end of the day, I am a baseball fan, not an analyst.  I could be an analyst.  Probably a good one.  I'm good at math and statistics.

I want to just enjoy the players, or if the team I like (in this case the Mets) were to stink, I'd find other things to do more with my free time.  As I have in the past.

For me, better product = watch more.  Poorer product = watch less.

And when fans can actually attend games, the formulas for them are:

Better product = attend more.  Poorer product = attend less.

All that said, you've probably seen the sort of posts like ones on Mets sites on Facebook, where the individual expresses displeasure, saying things like "we've got a first baseman playing left field, a center fielder playing right field, a DH playing 1B and playing 3B" etc.

To that critique, I offer a simple overall algebraic formula I whipped up for fans like that to consider - it does not involve the use of calculus, derivatives, or advanced statistical theory.  

It is this:

Team offense + team defense = team position player success level.

So, if the overall defense surrenders 30 runs more than the average team, but the offense produces 180 runs more than the average team, that net result is a +150.

I, as a fan, am happy with a +150 from my offensive players.

It sure beats a team that is +30 on defense and -180 on offense. Why?  That adds up to a -150.  

I like +150.  I dislike -150.

Similarly, if the starting pitchers allow 50 runs fewer than average, and the pen's holds and saves are at league average, that adds up to a +50 for the pitching staff.

Which makes me happy.

I think, barring a rash of injuries, the above is about where this team stands as I see it for 2021:

+150 for offensive players, and +50 for pitchers, which equals +200.

I'd be thrilled with +200.  Warts and all.

Getting a Springer would have boosted those offensive numbers somewhat in 2021, but at the cost of another one of those long term contracts that might be half very good, and half very bad.  So we missed him, and his defense, and we adjusted.  Oh, well, we'll get someone great next off-season.

Getting a Bauer would most likely have busted the cap, and I am happy that Mets management was willing to do that, since his contract is not that lengthy, but they did make other post-Bauer adjustments that improved the team and retained some cap flexibility.  So it remains to be seen how missing out on Bauer (who wanted Los Angeles, not NY) will affect the Mets overall.  Maybe not much.

I look at the simple math above, think +200 for the Mets is possible, and I am happy about that.  Even if the defense is lumpy and in many cases not elite.  A +200 team to me is elite.

This team if it stays healthy could be ++.  

As in a plus for each +100.

Class is over, friends.  Have a great day.