MACK - MY Sunday Observations Report -

 

MACK – Sunday Morning Observations

 

Many of us Mack’s Mets writers here have a pet peeve. Tom Brennan has field dimensions. I have defense.

I’ve spoken numerous times regarding the valve of “middle field” defense. Catchers, pitchers, shortstops, second basemen, and centerfielders are the defensive backbone of any winning team. Most batted balls are going to the middle of the diamond. Most batted balls (all pitched balls) are going to the middle of the diamond. Those defensive teams that can take away the base hits, extra base hits, prevent wild pitches or passed balls the best are going to be the winner on most nights. Take them away plus eliminate wild pitches and passed balls, and you win more games. Period.

Listen… fielding truly is the  backbone of a baseball team. The term “defense wins baseball games” has mostly been used when people talk about the pitchers, but just how important is the fielders when you hit a ball to their zone? To win, a team has to score more runs than the opponent at the end of regulation game. Right?  But defense is the first step that dictates the action of the ball thrown. Superior pitching and defense allows a team to win close games and postseason  teams most often do not carry losing records of one run ballgames during the regular season.

Question… what teams tolerate the weakest hitters, by position? Here’s the answer, dating back to 1884:

Pitcher 0.463, Shortstop 0.685, Catcher 0.701, 2nd base 0.704, 3rd base 0.744,

Center field 0.758, Left field 0.790, 1st base 0.792, Right field 0.795

Obviously, pitchers are the most valuable. Next comes shortstop (thought it was catcher, didn’t you?), Last comes right. There is a big drop off from second to third. Then center. Remember… center demands specific skills that cannot be taught—speed and throwing arm—while any good athlete can be taught to play third base adequately. 

The problem with youth ball is all the emphasis is on who can hit the ball over the fence. Truly great baseball players can hit a ball over the fence, but can also catch a game winning ball, turn the double, or throw a runner out. More of this needs to be emphasized and taught in schools. Well rounded players excel on both sides of the ball.

Next question… what defensive metrics is the best to analyze your defense? There’s a bunch of them out there.  DRS… UZR… FRAA… OOA. Which one should we take more serious than the other?

Jonathan Judge and Sean O’Rourke, of Baseball Prospectus, studied this and offered this up (note… catchers and pitchers are excluded because all of the above-mentioned metrics equations do not currently measure it:

In the Outfield, Baseball Prospectus’s Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) is the “best” defensive metric.

In the Infield, MLB’s Outs Above Average (OAA), which is based on Statcast and still evolving, is the “best” defensive metric.

Overall, FRAA performed the best, followed by STATS Inc’s private statistic Runs Effectively Defended (RED) and Sports Information Systems’s publicly available statistic Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).

FRAA is also the simplest metric test, but the baseball world seems to live and die on DRS.

Ever wonder where the current Mets stand in DRS?

Here are the current Mets that ranked in the top 100 ballplayers last year:

            #9       CF       Jose Siri

            #57     SS        Francisco Lindor

            #81     1B       Pete Alonso

 

 

I’m asked constantly “what’s the best this” and who’s the best at what?”

I can only offer up opinions, but I’m pretty sure about this… the Mets have a handful of starting pitchers that could some day develop into a successful back-end major league rotation pitcher… and Brandon Sproat and Christian Scott have the talent to develop into front to mid-level starters in the majors, but, right now, there is only one starter in the chain that projects to possibly become the ace of this staff some day.

                                    Jonah Tong

I’m not an analytics guy, but for those of you that are, feast on this… Tong’s four seam in PSL this year had 100th percentile IVB, 95th percentile cut, and 78th percentile VAA. That’s good, right?

Tong throws a fastball that has hit 101 and struck out 160 batters over 113 innings pitched, for a combined three levels (A, A+, AA). He also only had 47-BB.

I expect him to start the 2025 season with a return to Binghamton, but, as he has proven, the 21-year old can move fast through a system.

THIS is the guy you need to keep an eye on. He has Jake deGrom written all over him. 

 

We all know how we wish more home-grown relievers could come out of this system. Bryce Montes de Oca, Dylan Tebrake, Justin Lawson, and Trey McLaughlin all show some promise.

Another is the one John From Albany and Ernest Dove wrote about recently:

Mets News and Links       (@JohnFromAlbany)

Last night in Winter Ball - Joshua Cornielly (4-0) 3 innings, no runs, 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 K - 1.21 ERA.

 

Ernest Dove            @ernestdove

Joshua Cornielly remains an intriguing wild card arm that Mets staff really like.

Joshua Cornielly is a 23/year old RH relief pitcher (6-2, 230) that was a 2017 IFA, out of Venezuela.

In 2020, mlb.com wrote this about Cornielly:         

Scouting grades: Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 55 | Overall: 45

As a Venezuelan amateur, Cornielly endeared himself to scouts with his clean, athletic delivery and advanced feel for pitching. The Mets signed him for $25,000 at the outset of the 2017-18 international period, and he responded with a strong professional debut the next year in the Dominican Summer League. The right-hander didn’t fare as well last season in his return to the DSL, though he did perform better after a midseason jump over to the Rookie Gulf Coast League, where the 19-year-old impressed club officials with his endurance and aptitude on the mound. 

With a projectable frame and an innate ability for flooding the zone with strikes, Cornielly has a solid foundation as a starting pitcher. He doesn’t overpower hitters with his stuff, sitting in the low 90s with an above-average changeup and a fringy breaking ball, but he knows how to mix his pitches and commands his fastball better than most hurlers his age. 

He threw 84 percent of his pitches for strikes and posted a 52/9 K/BB ratio over 46 innings in 2019, all while inducing whiffs at an impressive 23-percent clip. Cornielly’s curveball is his least-advanced pitch, though club officials are optimistic that it will improve as he adds strength and refines his arm action.

Cornielly is unique in the sense that he stands out more for his floor than ceiling even though he’s just 19 and has a projectable frame. Adding a bit more velocity could improve the effectiveness of his fastball-changeup combo, but even if he doesn’t, Cornielly still has enough starter qualities to profile to succeed at the back end of a big- league rotation.

His 5-year stat line stands at 17-15, 4.13, but it’s what he is turning out in AA-Binghamton this past season that is standing out:

            10-app, 0-0, 1.13, 0.81, 16-IP, 21-K, only 4-BB

“Corn” has followed this up (through 12-16) with another ++ stat line in winter ball, for Caracus in the WEWL:

            16-apps, 4-0, 1.61, 1.16, 22.1-IP, 26-K, 10-BB

Yes, Cornielly’s career seemed to stall out of the gate, but that seems to be being rectified in the past six months.

I expect him to return to AA-Binghamton for opening day, but he is old enough and mature enough to hop the plane to Syracuse out of camp.

Keep an eye on this guy in camp and how the Mets utilize him there.   

 

There were a couple of more additions this week, both former teammates.

First, the Mets signed 29/yar old, 1B/LF/2B Jared Young to a one-year major year deal. His career MLB stat line is -0.1-WAR, 62-AB, .210. He hit .326 in 144-AB last season for the Doosan Bears of the Korean KBO league.

They followed this up by signing one of his Doosan teammates to a minor league contract… 30-year old LHP Brandon Waddell, who has a lifetime major league stat line of -0.3-WAR, 0-1, 5.68. He had 14 starts this year for the Bears, posting a 3.12-ERA.

My thoughts on these two moves are:

1.     No minor league contracts bother me

2.     Signing a major league contract, and assumingly giving up a 40-man slot to someone with an inferior history, is troubling at best.

3.     Putting this into perspective with the Soto signing, this is like purchasing  a 1955 Mercedes-Benz 300 SLR Uhlenhaut Coupe (sold in 2022 for $142mil) and installing old spark plugs from a used 1969 Rambler American station wagon.

4.     There is an upside here....there always seems to be an upside with signings since Stearns came aboard... and that is these two signings will fill openings at AAA-Syracuse. But only if both of them wind up in the minors. I know Young has versatility at first, second, and left, and he could fill the role of three utility players combined, but he does need to show the ability to hit major league pitching better than the bat boy.

 

On Wednesday, the Mets added another affiliate fill, that could offer an emergency fill in Queens if either catchers goes down, or if they need to fill the roster with a first baseman in 2025.

They signed 28-year old C/1B Chris Williams to a minor league deal.

Williams has hit .227/.344/.464 with 95 home runs and 76 doubles in 481 games over six minor league seasons.

Last season, for the Twins in AAA, he slashed .221/.339/.461 with 17 homers in 88 games.

I’ll say this… Syracuse could use a catcher like this in 2025.

 

Then, late the same night, the Mets made a stab at solving their thin 2025 rotation. Or did they? They signed 28-year old RHSP Griffin Canning to a 1-year, $4.25mil contract for the 2025 season. It also includes up to a mil more incentives if certain accomplishments are met.

It’s been a busy off-season for Canning. He started the trading season with the Angels, who then traded him to the Braves, who eventually non-tendered him and the Mets now signed him.

His MLB career (5yrs) – 94-ST, 25-34, 4.78-ERA

2024 – 171.2-IP, 5.19-ERA, only 17.6% K-rate

It’s obvious that he will live in the labs this spring. He also may turn out to be a long reliever instead of a questionable starter. Time will tell.

 

Friday brought two more affiliate adds.

34-year old LHP, Anthony Gose (2024: -0.2-WAR, 0-0, 10.38) and former first round pick, 29-year old RHP Luis Ortiz (2024: -0.1-WAR, 0-0, 27.00) were signed to a minor league contract and, I assume, will be added to the Syracuse roster.