Paul Articulates – Does the future reflect the past?

We use the term “experience” to explain how we learn from past events and apply that knowledge to inform future choices.  But how well does that term help baseball executives make good decisions on where to go to prepare a competitive team for next season?

Certainly there is a big focus on analytics in today’s game.  Analytics are nothing more than statistical analysis of players’ past performance that provide a probability of success in their future.  This is the epitome of “experience” because it is based upon raw fact and not clouded by the judgement of a scout or a coach that is not calibrated. 

If you read much of what I write, you understand that I place a lot of importance on “state of mind” which is to say that a player’s performance is influenced not only by his raw skills but also by that player’s level of confidence in the moment and their focus on the task at hand rather than the plethora of distractions surrounding them.  So despite my love of math, I take analytics with a grain of salt.  The stats don’t tell you where the player’s state of mind was when they were recorded or where that state of mind will be when the next play will be made. 

Why am I talking about all this and what does it have to do with the Mets?

I think it has everything to do with the Mets.  In their history, the Mets have had several memorable seasons like we just experienced in 2024.  The “Amazin Mets” of 1969, the “Ya gotta believe” Mets of 1973, the “dynasty” of 1986, and World Series appearances in 2000 and 2015 were all memorable.  They also were followed by years of misery because the team could not repeat their successes.  So one might say that “experience” would have predicted a better outcome than reality gave us.  

There are many reasons that this may be true, such as changes in the roster that affected the chemistry, changes in the players’ performance based upon external influences, and the unpredictable variable of the schedule.  

So as the front office (and all of us fans) lays out the task ahead to build a team, they should also consider the fact that the past does not always predict the future.  

The Mets of 2024 were so much fun to watch and to root for, but would the exact same team perform in the exact same way again?  Probably not.  Jose Iglesias hit .337 in 270 at-bats this season which was 19% above his career average of .283.  Similarly his .829 OPS this year was 17% better than his career OPS of .709.  Starling Marte hit .277 in the playoffs because he was fresher than usual in the fall due to missing many games in mid-season.  Can we expect him to repeat that at age 37 next year if he plays 150 games?  I could go on, but I am just trying to be pragmatic here.  A carbon copy of the 2024 Mets would not win 96 games (89 plus 7) in 2025.  As a team they over-performed their norm, in part because of the tremendous self-confidence boost they had during their run which became self-sustaining.

Not to disparage a very good team having a very good season and a spectacular playoff run, but the reality is this: David Stearns is going to have to be very aggressive in building this team for the future.  I know that he said we have the financial means to do so, but we also have to be very good at luring the talent that is required to become a sustainable playoff team.  Juan Soto will need a lot of convincing to leave a team that is playing in the World Series for one that is not.  Corbin Burnes will need a lot of convincing to leave a team that is built to win now.  

I think that the Mets have shown that they are all-in on building a winner, and that is important.  I also know that it takes more than just money to lure the right players to a team that has not displayed a winning pedigree over their history.  It is a tall task to push them to the next level.  I am confident in the people they have in place, from the ownership to the management to the coaching staff, but it will not be easy.

Much will be discussed over the coming months about the process, and we will all be weighing in with our opinions.  Just remember, the past does not always predict the future.