HERE ARE MY TOP THIRTY UNDER AGE 30
It’s that time again. Prospects.
I start early. Never too early to look ahead.
When developing my rankings, I do not weight “politically”, meaning if a guy is a high draft pick, but is playing poorly for an extended period, I do not rank him higher than the player deserves, whereas the Mets’ prospect site may over-rank those players, because otherwise the club perhaps would look like it made lousy draft picks.
I also like guys who stay healthy. Some injuries are avoidable, some are unavoidable. So, in the case of the very heavily used Mauricio, who got to the plate a ton of times in 2022 and 2023, in the minors, fall league and winter leagues, was his knee injury a freak thing, or was he feeling worn down, would not sit and rest, and then the knee ligament tore? I have no idea, and will assume it was 100% a freak thing.
Other player injuries may be in some cases the result of overzealousness. Without naming current players, think Juan Lagares. He was more daring than Evel Knievel, and got hurt more, too.
The highly ranked Ronny Mauricio, Jett Williams, Jesus Baez, Marco Vargas, Drew Gilbert, and Jacob Reimer combined played not much more than one full minor league season for one player starting every game. Not good.
Also not good was that the combined hitting performance of those 6 players was weak in 2024 in the games they actually played in. No injuries, and perhaps their slash lines look a lot better, but there you go. Next time, don’t get hurt.
Thankfully, Jett and Drew will be eliminating a good chunk of that "plate appearance deficit in Arizona Fall Ball action, which just commenced. May they be the AFL's co-MVPs when all is said and done.
I also lean towards PERFORMANCE. Put up Nick-Morabito-like numbers, for example, and I put you, Sir Nick, far above the #19 slot the Mets site lists you at.
And I also look at anomalies.
For instance, Jonah Tong’s control has been solid this year (under 4 walks per 9), while Blake Tidwell’s and Dom Hamel’s walk rates were closer to 5 and 6 walks per 9, respectively, but all 3 are ranked on the Mets’ prospect site with “45” control. To me, it looks more like Tong 50, Tidwell 40-45, and Hamel 35-40.
Nolan McLean’s control was rapidly improving late in his first full season, in AA, yet he, too, was listed at 45 control. I give him a 50.
I also leave Christian Scott out of the prospects list. If healthy, he has already proven to me that he is a major league pitcher.
So given all of that, here is my ranking - I am doing them all at once here, as I feel it is hard for readers to try to keep track of various prospects in piecemeal articles and evaluate where they might fit in their own rankings:
1.
Brandon Sproat - the 100 MPH man was brilliant in his first season until AAA, where he encountered turbulence. Me? I am confident he sails out of the turbulence and has real major league impact during 2025. I am hoping he is a future SP 1.
2.
Jett Williams - he was injured and needed surgery, and his season was shortened substantially and miserable until his final week. Let's hope for a spurt that has him ready by September 2025, if not sooner.
3.
Jonah Tong - he had a heck of a season in low A and High A, then in his first of two AA starts late in the season, with 6 no hit innings, no walks, and 9 Ks. AAA can be a doozy, but I am going out on a limb for this 21 year old righty who turns 22 in late June 2025, and who fanned 160 in 113 innings. He has quite a repertoire and seems like a real student of pitching. My ranking is likely higher than most would rank Tong. I am hoping he is a future SP 2. Possible Mets 2026 rotation piece.
4.
Carson Benge - I see this 2024 first rounder as being a larger version of Drew Gilbert. 4 inches taller, he hit well in his brief St Lucie debut. He and Gilbert both have cannons for arms, but Carson throws harder. I foresee Carson blowing through High A, AA, and getting decent time in AAA, and being a mid-2026 arrival to the Mets.
5.
Nolan McLean - his win loss record did not show it, but his first year pitching, with an extensive stretch in AA, was impressive. Throws almost as hard as Sproat and has a nasty slider. He has too many holes in his bat to become a big league hitter, despite massive power, so he wisely shelved his hitting career to focus on pitching. I see him as a future SP 3, who will he ready by late 2025.
6.
Drew Gilbert - I was disappointed by his extended injury, and he hit with good power, but otherwise unimpressively, when he did play in 2024. VERY slow start in Arizona Fall Ball, too. I think his being 5'9" will be a disadvantage in the majors - I hope I am wrong. If Marte is traded at the MLB deadline in July 2025, I could see Drew stepping in.
7.
Ronny Mauricio - everyone seems very high on him for his power and base stealing ability. I am unsure as to whether he will be as willing to steal going forward after his MCL injury and having seen speedy Ronald Acuna get two such injuries. That injury is obviously very costly time-wise, as Mauricio, after a huge number of plate appearances in 2022 and 2023, missed all of 2024. My other concern is he has had 110 errors in 445 minors and international games (93 in 393 games at SS - Rey Ordonez he is not). That has to drastically improve, or he will be largely limited to DH.
8.
Nick Morabito - 2025 will be a big year for Speedy Nick. The athletic 5'10" righty has to show he has more power. He has had just 41 XBHs in 807 career plate appearances.
That said, in A and High A in 2024, at age 21, he hit .312 with 59 steals, and in 2023 and 2024, he had 664 at bats, hit .310 and stole 80 bases, with 94 walks and 19 HBP, giving him a two year OBP of .410.
I see him being ready for the Mets by early 2026, perhaps as a starter.
His arm is deemed to be not strong. He needs to add power.
9.
Boston Baro turned 20 late in 2024 and had a fine rookie season. .278/.358/.390. "Just" 17 errors at short, second and third, which actually is a decent rate for his age and which will no doubt improve. Baro stole 9 of 10 in 95 games, which tells me he is an opportunistic stealer. He will be ready most likely, in early 2027. My guess is he will have average power by the time he shows up in Queens.
10.
Luisangel Acuna - the little man had a towering impact on the Mets pennant drive when he filled in for the injured Lindor down the stretch. He played loose, hit great, and is quick. His AAA season was solid and perhaps he will surprise me in 2025 and be an impact player from day 1 with the Mets. I can foresee him hitting .235-.250 with the Mets next season as a rookie with some power, a mediocre OBP, base stealing acumen, and pro level fielding. Hopefully, I have him way too low.
11.
Ryan Clifford - he walks a lot, fans a lot, and has real power. I remain unconvinced that he will remedy his low batting average and high K issues, but he is still young, and potentially could rip AAA apart next year. He is not a speedster but he has an arm in the outfiled and can also man first base. His 2024 stats in High A and AA are as follows:
.228/.378/.421, 160 strikeouts in 129 games. But he started out in Brooklyn in 2024, which is a lefty hitter's hell. He had 1 HR for Brooklyn in 136 plate appearances, but in AA, he hit .231 and had a more representative 18 HRs in 405 ABs. I need to remember that power-hitting Ike Davis never hit a HR in Brooklyn in 215 ABs there in his first year.
DO SOMETHING, BROOKLYN!
Move the right field fences in 15 feet if you have to.
He turns 22 after the All Star Break in 2025, so he could prove me dead wrong and soar up this list as a lefty hitting version of Mark Vientos.
12.
Jeremy Rodriguez - this danged 6'0" lefty-smacking kid does not turn 19 until Independence Day 2025, yet he has already had 419 plate appearances in his minors career and has an excellent slash line of .287/.382/.431 with 36 of 50 in career steals. That success rate, though, is below average for the levels he has been playing at. I believe this time next year, he will be ranked much, much higher.
Made 17 errors in 50 games in 2024. His goals in 2025 should include at least doubling the games he actually plays in 2025 (100 or more), with no increase in errors.
13.
Blade Tidwell - he had a great last game of the season, but went through brutal outings in 2024 in AAA. Payback in 2025 in AAA, and possibly a late season call up to the Mets in relief. Throws hard, but must allow a lot fewer hitters to get on base. A future Tylor Megill?
14.
Marco Vargas - disappointingly, the 19 year old lefty hitting SS had just 130 at bats in 2024. He hit just .208 in St Lucie, but with a .369 OBP. He has walked 122 times in 144 pro games. Low errors and stole 13 of 15 in 37 games. PLEASE stay healthy in 2025, Marco, and show us what you can really do.
15.
Jonathan Santucci - lefty fireballer in the draft. No pro innings. He has a 60 rated fastball and slider and will move up quickly, as his control lets him. He could be top 5 this time next year.
16.
Nate Dohm - also yet to record official pro innings, the righty is ranked as having a 55 fastball, curve, and slider. Let's hope he dazzles in his first pro season.
17.
Trey Snyder - the 19 year old infielder went well over slot in the draft (5th round, 144th overall), so they LIKE this guy. He got several games in for St Lucie. Righty bat. Let's see him tear the cover off the ball in A ball in 2025. He ranks well, but no 60's in his rankings.
18.
Jesus Baez - the 19 year old was having a strong year, then he caught POVID, an illness that afflicts only Mets' infield and outfield ranked prospects. He was done after early July with a meniscus injury that required snipping and stitching. The 5'10" infielder had a fine slash of .262/.335/.447. I'd have had him several slots higher if it weren't for the injury. A possible 2027 Met. Maybe he switches to the outfield and turns into a Toy Cannon.
19.
Daiverson Gutierrez - Gutierrez was the Mets' bug international bonus baby in 2023. In 2023, he stunk. But he was SO YOUNG. In 2024, much improved (.259/.396/.435) and got some games in with St Lucie after a short season in the FCL. St Lucie's catcher in 2025. Unclear as yet if he will eventually be more than a back up catcher in the majors starting in 2028 or 2029.
20.
Yovanny Rodriguez - 2024's big bonus baby struggled in 2024, too, but he heated up at the end. He might be ready in 2030; he plays all next year at age 18.
21.
AJ Ewing - another Boston Baro type, but had a lesser year. .233/.361/.390. Stuck out 109 times in 90 games. Let's see what he can do in full pro season # 2 in 2025.
22.
Mike Vasil - sub-mediocre starter in AAA. He is 12-14, 5.78 in 207 AAA innings in 2023 and 2024. I foresee a conversion to relief for him, but the Mets may need him to start in AAA.
23.
Jacob Reimer - this guy was hurt for almost all of 2024. I had him higher last year. Let's see how he does in 2025 (and in Arizona ball this fall).
24.
Ronald Hernandez - he could well be a back-up catcher in 2026. .261/.244/.346 in 2024. Slow catcher, with 30 rated speed. Good fielder, good eye at the plate.
25.
Wyatt Young - if only he wasn't 5'6". in 118 games in 2024, a fine .287/.387/.358, with 17 of 25 steals. He started slow in 2024 but had a very good year in AA/AAA, and fields very well, as his mere 5 errors in 2024 clearly attests. He is up against a crowded field. Maybe he will get his break in 2025.
26.
Dominic Hamel - occasionally tossed a good game, but hammered almost all year. Spotty control. Try to become Trevor May, seems to be the best career advice that no one is asking me for.
27.
Edward Lantigua - well thought of, let's see what he can do stateside in 2025. He had a .397 OBP in the DSL at the age of 17.
28.
Alex Ramirez - so much speed, but back to back truly disappointing years. Strikes out too much, and hit .215 over the past 2 seasons with very little power. I dunno, do you? Man, he would have been a great guy to trade at the end of 2022, when he was in baseball's top 100.
29.
Jordan Geber - this slot came down to Geber or Jack Wenninger. The undrafted Geber wins for now, but Wenninger can rise quickly in a starter-starved Mets minors system in 2025.
30.
Nate Lavender - no way I am leaving Nate out. He was SOCLOSE to getting a major league bullpen call up in early 2024, before the Tommy John Grim Reaper showed up. Nate has had some control issues, but he has fanned a ton of batters. Let's hope the lefty is back pitching in games by mid-2025 and cracks the majors in 2025.
Missing from my Top 30 are Kevin Parada and Colin Houck, two first round-selected strikeout machines. Besides the Ks and the suppressed averages, Houck made a ton of errors, and Parada may be the worst defensive catcher in the system.
Houck, 19 during 2024, could mature this off season and return in 2025 with guns a’blazing, and push his way up into the top 30.
He really (IMO) should have been demoted to the Complex League to lower the level of pitching competition against him. I am hopeful for him in 2025.
Parada? Increasingly troubling pick. Maybe something clicks in 2025.
Left out is Calvin Ziegler, whose total innings in 2023 and 2024 totaled less than one complete game. Amazing…7 innings, no hits, 15 Ks. And Saul Garcia, who is pitching better in Arizona than he did during the regular season.
Ziegler will have to get healthy after TJS and earn his way back into the Top 30 list. He, I would guess, will return in or around August 2025.
Guys who would have been in the top 30 had they not been traded away in July were Rhylan Thomas, Kade Morris, Paul Gervase, and Tyler Stuart. You’ve got to give to get.
For instance, Stuart brought us Jesse Winker, who I've totally enjoyed. Hopefully, Winker returns to the Mets in 2025 with a healthy back. Stuart, meanwhile, got promoted to AAA post-trade, and had a 7.56 ERA in 16 innings, but he most likely will be a major league pitcher for the Nationals down the road.
I did hate that Gervase trade, though. 17.2 IP post trade, with 31 Ks vs. just 3 walks. I really hate that particular trade.
Rhylan Thomas hit well post-trade (.322 in 196 PAs), but with just 6 doubles and one HR, continuing his ultra-low-powered plate results.
11 comments:
A lot of work put in here. We will all have a different spin on this, but my guess is each of our top 10, in some order, will be around the same
The 3 Top 30 prospects in AZ last night? Jett (.389 OBP) had 2 hits, 2 walks, Reimer (.480 OBP) had a 2 run shot and a walk, and Gilbert (.107 BA) singled and walked. Reimer’s HR went 432 feet at 104 MPH. Don’t forget Reimer.
It is hard to rank players, to be sure. Each writer has his own biases. Mine is performance-weighted.
Interestingly, Jett William has played as a pro slightly more than the equivalent of a Francisco Lindor season. In 172 games, Jett is hitting .252/.408/.417 with 110 runs, 137 walks, 31 doubles, 10 triples, 14 HRS, and 57 steals. His pro average was depressed by his 2024 post-injury hitting struggles. He looks quite impressive. If he was a White Sox player, he’d be on the team opening day 2025. If the Mets trade for Gavin Crochet, that might just happen.
In Chicago, that is. Then they would have Jett and Crow in the Windy metropolis.
there is no solution for the Mets outfield in 2025 other than trading someone for a solid vet.
Mack, in starting to think of what pieces to look for, a real CF would be great. Everyone is a corner fielder except for Taylor, but I d prefer a bit better offensively. But, if you say Taylor or say, Michael Taylor, I would just keep our Taylor and not block the kids.
Tom, your order needs tweaking. Reiner is too far down and Houck was way too young for his level. You have to give the kid time. Also missing is Loccasio that was great until he got hurt.
Gus,that recent .480 OBP in 25 PAs from Reimer is eye-catching, as was the acreage that HR covered - this was written before the AFL started. My guess is, when the AFL mini season is done, is that he would have been mid-teens (or better) had I waited.
Houck was young, indeed, but his K rate was extremely high the whole season. Hence my concern. He has plenty of time in 2025 to climb into my top 15. I really think not demoting him to the FCL once that delayed season started was a real disservice to him. I suspect it would have been one step back, two steps forward.
I remain annoyed with Gilbert. You pulled your hammy or at least tweaked it in an infield hit in early, cold April. Instead of coming out, you stayed in and really pulled it on the next play, essentially depth-charging your season. Someone correct me if I have the facts wrong. He would have played the whole season, and might be ready for the Mets outfield as a reserve in April 2025. Now, his hitting feels like another Parada, when he may be a lot better than Drew’s 2024 results showed. How does Stearns plan for that? I hoped Gilbert would shine in the AFL, but he is 3 for 28. It seems (absent an eruption at the plate in the last 3(?) weeks of AFL games, that Gilbert is 2025 at least a half season in AAA. He seems development-wise behind Jett, and certainly behind Acuna. Even if Jett hit .200 for the Mets in a full season of 2025, his OBP would exceed .300 and he’d steal bases.
Tom, it really depends on the makeup of the player. On one hand you have a Drew Gilbert that is constantly getting hurt because he dives around, runs into walls to make plays, and wants to battle injury. On the other hand you have Kris Bryant/Anthony Rendon: Always missed time due to injury, worried about saving themselves for their big payday, and when they got it…..
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