The Mets of 2025 won 83 games, following a 2024 season where they won 89. Before that was the very difficult 2023 season where they won only 75 games with two future hall of famers on the pitching staff. Almost all of those teams has now been disassembled, and the rebuilding of the team is still in process.
The leadership of the Mets organization from Steve Cohen down through the lowest staff member remain committed to building this team into a sustainable winner. Original projections of a five year path to success have not materialized and as we enter year six, the rebuilt team has a very hollow sound to it. Gone are the core players like Alonso, Nimmo, and McNeil. Gone are the pitchers like deGrom, Scherzer, and Verlander. What remains in place is shortstop Francisco Lindor, the generational talent of Juan Soto, and a cast of other players who have not distinguished themselves as MLB star caliber.
The roster is yet to be completed for the 2026 team, but if one takes what is currently available and compares last year’s starting position players to this year’s projected starting position players, there is a net loss of 2.8 WAR and 132 RBI. In other words, the replacements are not as good as the originals. So if your gut feeling so far this winter is that we are moving backwards, you are correct.
In all fairness to the Mets leadership team, sometimes you have to take a step backwards to have a clear path towards the goal. This appears to be the case with the current situation, as it was deemed necessary to blow up the core of the 2025 team instead of supplementing it with upgrades to the peripheral players.
Where from here? The assumption all along was that there would be a few major acquisitions to supplement the statistical losses of RBI and WAR. The impact players that would make a difference in those calculations are continuing to hold out for a better offer since they have multiple teams vying for their services. This would include players like Cody Bellinger, Kyle Tucker, and Bo Bichette who are each looking for multi-year deals with AAVs in the $27M-$35M range.
There has been no indication from the actions of the front office that they have any appetite for taking on long term contracts with inflated AAVs. In fact, all actions taken to date were very much to the contrary. The Mets are looking for value plays, and this is not the year for that type of deal. This leads to the conclusion that at the end of hot stove season, the team will be promoting young prospects to fill voids and challenging them to grow into their roles.
The implication of what you have just read is a lost 2026 season. It will be a year for younger players to work through the growing pains of adjusting to MLB competition. It will be a year of transition for existing players into potentially new roles like Polanco or Soto at first base. It will not be a return to a world championship in the 40th season since the last ticker tape parade. My projection is somewhere between 70-75 wins in 2026 and no significant awards for the coaching staff or the individual players. There will be regression not only at the team level, but also at individual levels, as the burden of carrying the team on their shoulders without adequate lineup protection eventually wears down Lindor and Soto. Be prepared, Mets fans. There is a price to pay for future success.
Oh, and by the way, happy new year!
6 comments:
Morning Paul. Happy New Year to you and yours.
No baseball executive is ever going to stand in front of either a reporter or a camera and admit that their team is entering a rebuilding year. Oh, you will read that some hack printed that, but it simply is never confirmed.
What kind of message does that tell your existing roster players?
So... being the hack that I am... I'm simply saying here that...
2026 IS A REBUILDING YEAR FOR THE METS
(there, I've said it...)
Oh, there will be more veterans on this roster, but only under two or three year max contracts. David Stearns has already written in ink what prospects will NOT be traded and they are penciled in on future projected rosters.
The future Mets pitching staff will be dominated by Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, Christian Scott, Dylan Ross, and Ryan Lambert.
Take it to the bank
One of the more difficult things I've ever attempted was a neutral article about the off season actions and inactions without placing blame squarely on the former Brewers top executive. I'm trying to be patient. I'm trying to wait for the rest of the roster construction to take place. I'm trying not to overdo the ingestion of copious amounts of adult beverages. Maybe it will be better than we expect. Surely it can't be worse.
The Mets rebuild should be easier and quicker than the Ukraine and Gaza rebuilds. Should be…but these are the Mets. After 64 years, and going into year 65, I am skeptical until proven otherwise.
One World Series championship in the last 56 years.
Skeptical.
But we old timers are victors. We’ve made it to 2026. Hooray.
Happy New Year to all my Mets friends and Family. I am still having a hard time getting a clear read on what this year will bring the Mets. If it is in fact a rebuild or just a year where the F.O. gets an Idea of what it has going forward or Stearns ends up supplying the Mets with the players that they will need to compete from outside the organization. This year is important . I look forward to seeing how they will handle the task ahead. Hang on Mets Fans we are in for a exciting ride. LGM.
Happy new year! Im okay with letting the kids play for the most part even if that means we’re not putting ourselves in the best position to win this season. Gotta see what we have to really work with.
That said i really hope the mets sign 1 or 2 pieces that can be part of the 3-5 year run with the maturing young players. It’s hard to source all you’re external upgrades from one offseason. At this point I’d see if i can lock Kyle Tucker down. Either go in with an extra high AAV for 5 years or go long terms as ling as you think the bat will age well with the understanding he’ll move to first at some point.
Id also sign Imai. Should deepen the rotation and has upside. Sprinkle in a few other short terms pitching options and this team can be really good.
I think we need to respect the braves. They're not going to be bad like last year but we can beat them. The phillies… they’ll be good but they are getting old. Their window to compete at the top of the division is short but still very real this season and probably next season.
Paul, the WAR/RBI loss is real on paper, no argument there. Where I differ is in treating 2026 as a foregone mid-70s outcome. The pitching has meaningful upside simply from youth, health, and more stable innings, and better team defense can recover wins that don’t show up in lineup swaps. Add a couple of solid, controllable bats in CF and the corners and I think this profiles more like an 80-85 win team with real variance, not a lost season. If the young arms take a step, the ceiling is higher than the math suggests.
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