7/12/26

Tom Brennan: Draft Day 1; Soto Last 162 Games; DSL OBP Means What, Exactly?

 


SUPER STAR OVER HIS LAST 162 GAMES


LAST 162 GAMES

162 games is a full season equivalent.

Superstar Juan Soto, in his last 162 games through Wednesday?

Juan Soto is hitting .286 with 166 hits, 49 home runs, 115 RBIs and 110 runs scored in 162 games in his last 162 games. (Source: Statmuse). I assume that is correct and up to date.

Tons of Soto walks, too. Which makes him a….

Superstar. 

Oh, right, I already said superstar.

So, if you think the Mets should burn it all down, and even trade Soto, think twice. Scalpels surgically handled are a more effective management tool in baseball than sledge hammers.

The draft is now underway, and the Mets have made a few picks. I certainly wish they could have a lot more picks, but then I guess so do other teams wish the same thing for their own teams.

I wish all the Mets’ draft picks well. My advice to them?  Be the best players you can be. 

If you are a pitcher, do not be afraid to throw strikes. Be afraid to not throw strikes.

If you’re a hitter, work on keeping your strike out rate low. Too many don’t. The ones that don’t almost always fail.


WHAT DO DSL OBP STATS REALLY MEAN?

So I looked at bonus baby Wandy Asigen mid-way through his game on Thursday:

He had been up very little this year so far, but he had been on base 12 of 18 times. What does that mean? It is probably very favorable, but his twelve times on base include 3 hits, plus…

EIGHT WALKS, and a HBP.

Walks are off the charts in the DSL this year. His game was suspended after 4 innings, and by then, DSL Mets Orange pitchers gave up, you guessed it…

EIGHT WALKS, and a HBP.

The game resumed, and the Mets squad eventually gave up 12 walks and 2 HBPs. Another typical game in the DSL, although in some games, control is apparently improving slowly.

I think that just about the only thing one can conclude with DSL hitting stats is that if someone’s OBP is high, that might be a good thing. 

But if their OBP is low, they probably are not going to accomplish much.

The walks are so extremely extreme in the DSL this year, that I would probably just focus on batting average and strikeouts per game when trying to evaluate a hitter’s performance. OBP in the DSL is misleading.

There is one DSL Mets hitter, Jonnhan Sanchez, hitting .367 with a .508 OBP in 29 games. The lefty hitter turned 19 two months ago. He may turn out to be one to watch. 

But keep this in mind: 

He is 17th in batting average, and only 58th in OBP, even with a .508 OBP! 

FIFTEEN Non-MET DSL GUYS stunningly have OBPs between .605 and .693!

How bad must the league’s pitching be, collectively?

P.S. Asigen, who missed some time earlier this season with a leg injury, stole his first two career bases, then got pinch hit for. I was concerned he might be hurt. But it seems he is OK, as he has since played another game, and now sits with a .593 OBP. 

I say: .600 or bust!

P.S. Elian Peña last year in the DSL hit .292 (70th) with a .421 OBP (80th).


OFF BASE PERCENTAGE

Mark Vientos falls slightly below the required number of plate appearances to “qualify”. If he qualified, he’d have the 3rd lowest On Base % in the majors, with Marcus Semien just two slots behind Mark.

That’s some tremendous OFF base % for those two. 

Around a .262 Off Base Percentage, combined.

Jake deGrom, career, has a .238 on base %, as a point of comparison.

With both Mark and Marcus now on the IL, one would surmise that the team’s ON base % should climb.

But these are the Mets, so I might be a little off-base here in saying that.





6 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Sometimes money can be spent correctly. Gold. Google stock. New teeth.

Soto

Mack Ade said...

Generally, DSL pitching sucks. Highly under-developed

This year almost criminal.

It's actually dangerous to step in under one of these wild, speedball children

Jules C-- The Cautious Optimist said...

Vientos is a goner, and his attitude has gotten worse in concert with is performance. I pointed out a problem in Semien's address position that would eventually slow down his bat and lead to injury. Not surprised by his decline. How is it that Mets' scouting misses these rather obvious potential sources of problems. I'm serious. I am knowledgable, but hardly distinctly so. The stuff I point out about Alvarez, Vientos and Semien are borderline obvious really.
Baty is teasing again. Don't listen to the siren call. Please. He's the kind of reclamation project that can make sense for Boston. I have not given up on the possibility of trading for Contreras to play 1st base nest year, Their right field porch could add life to Baty's bat and he is a competent replacement at 1B and versatile (they also could use help at 3B). Comes cheaper than Chapman for Sox. Also I would add a pitcher. SF is apparently offering Roy who is performing no better than Manaea. Why not give them Baty, Manaea and pay down some of the latter's salary for Contreras.
Maybe have to throw in Vientos (hopefully) or a minor leaguer from lower minors

Gary Seagren said...

I just wish Superstar Soto would run hard 4 times a game and his dropped flyball the other night come on man I know the season is over but for $750 mil give it some effort and learn something from the new guys. I know I'm dreaming but I'm allowed.

Mack Ade said...

Steve ought to gut the majority of who is determining what players are drafted

Mack Ade said...

nah. Let him skip for the rest of this disaster of a season. I don't need no injury here.