Alex Rubinson - The One that got Away: Former Mets Pitching Coach Thriving with NL East Rival

The 2025 New York Mets season has been well-documented. At this time last season, the Mets seemed poised for a deep playoff run and was considered a true championship contender. Instead, the second half hit New York like a pile of bricks. After its second half collapse, David Stearns and Carlos Mendoza made sweeping changes. Although there was initially a thought that Mendoza could lose his job as the manager, Stearns kept Mendoza in place while changing just about every other coach on the staff. 

One of the moves made was firing pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. Hefner had been the coaching pitch for the Mets since 2019, so the firing showed the organization was serious about changing its ways. It didn’t take long for Hefner to find work. About a month later, the division-rival Atlanta Braves brought in the pitching coach in the same role. 

Although the Mets and Braves had very different 2025 seasons, both teams were viewed as two of the biggest disappointments in baseball with questions heading into 2026. Atlanta promoted Walt Weiss to manager after Brian Snitker retired. Heading into 2026, the Braves figured to have a potent offense, but significant questions remained regarding their pitching staff. 

It didn’t help that Spencer Schwellenbach has missed the entire season to this point and Spencer Strider is back on the injured list after making a grand total of eight starts. Outside of Chris Sale and Bryce Elder, the Braves have had to piece together their rotation after not making any significant moves in the offseason. The Mets have had their own injuries to deal with, but the team figured to have solid depth while their top starters entering the season, Freddy Peralta and Nolan McLean, have stayed healthy. 

Despite who has made up the two respective pitching staffs, the Braves are currently second in all of baseball to the New York Yankees in ERA. The team is also top five in WHIP and opponent batting average. The Mets aren’t too far behind in opponent batting average, but they are about league average in ERA and WHIP. Given the investments each team made in the offseason, that’s not how it should be. If you had told Alex Anthopoulos and company that Atlanta would be a top five pitching staff in baseball as we hit the midway point in the season, he would have been thrilled even before taking into account the injuries. 

It’s even more impressive that the Braves' starters are sixth in both ERA and opponent average. Meanwhile, the Mets rotation is in the bottom four in starters’ ERA. 

Monday night is a great example of the Braves success. Despite a 1-0 loss to the Padres, Grant Holmes was very good in 4.2 innings. Holmes has been league average for Atlanta in 15 starts this season. Holmes is only in his third year in the league and only had seven starts in his rookie season. He is on pace to blow by his career high in innings (115 last season). His control can be erratic with 4.5 walks per nine innings, but he has done a good job at keeping the ball in the yard. 

Martín Pérez has been a revelation for the Braves. The 35-year-old lefty is pitching to a 2.78 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP. He barely gives up the long ball and has been almost 50% better than league average. Pérez signed a minor league contract with the Braves just to keep his career alive. Now, the southpaw is thriving under Hefner’s leadership. The Braves are still waiting for top prospect JR Ritchie to come into his own, but the rookie has already shown he has very good breaking stuff with a plus two run value on those pitches. 

The expected statistics show that the Mets have been unlucky. The team is actually fourth in expected slugging against and sixth in expected opponent average. The staff is also very good at preventing hard contact. They are top 10 in both average opponent exit velocity along with hard hit rate, just ahead of the Braves in both metrics. Maybe things will balance out as we enter the second half of the season, as it does appear the Mets are better than their league average statistics would suggest. On the other hand, the underlying metrics don’t tell the whole story. 

Freddy Peralta is in the bottom seven among qualifiers in ERA. His expected ERA is a full run lower, so he shouldn’t be nearly as bad as what he has shown. His fastball is still a plus pitch, but even if his ERA was 3.83 instead of 4.83, that is still not living up to the ace that Mets fans expected when the team acquired him in the offseason. 

McLean has been very good with a couple of rough appearances inflating his numbers, but his bright red baseball savant page shows that he can be an ace in the near future. You’re just putting a lot on a rookie’s shoulders if he needs to be your stopper every fifth day. 

After the 2025 season concluded, two NL East rivals were at a crossroads. It was a pivotal point in the direction of both clubs. Both teams addressed their bullpens while the Mets made a big investment in their rotation. Fair or not, the Mets pointed the finger at Hefner when they fired him, and the Braves scooped him up. Now, the Braves have a top pitching staff in baseball despite only two starters having enough innings to qualify, while the Mets appear destined to sell at the trade deadline with more questions than answers for the rest of 2026 and beyond. 

Alex Rubinson - How Does Juan Soto Stack Up Among NL Outfield Elite?

MLB released its first update on its 2026 All-Star voting on Monday with the first round of voting set to close a week from today. After the first round ends, the top two players at each position (six in the outfield) will move onto the finalist round. 

With the All-Star Game about a month away, I will use this as a reminder that every one of the 30 teams must be represented. With the New York Mets sitting well below .500 as one of the most disappointing teams in baseball, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the National League team will not be littered with players from Queens. 

As it stands right now, it feels very clear that Juan Soto will be the team’s lone representative in the midsummer classic, but how does the $765 million man compare to his competition in the NL outfield? 

Soto currently ranks ninth in NL voting among outfielders, so he would fail to qualify for the final round of voting. Andy Pages, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Brandon Marsh are the leaders as of today with Michael Harris II, Teoscar Hernández and Jordan Walker rounding out the top six (James Wood and Corbin Carroll also are ahead of Soto). As usual, fans have gotten a couple of things correct, but it’s also clear that the voting process is still a popularity contest. 

Note: All statistics are as of this past Tuesday.

Despite missing time due to injury, Soto is having a very on brand season. The left-handed slugger is posting a .290/.389/.555 slash line. His .944 OPS is second among all NL outfielders. Based on that alone, Soto should certainly be in the top six in voting and potentially crack the starting lineup. Of course, the only player ahead of Soto in OPS is the man he was traded for in Wood. As mentioned above, Wood would also fail to even qualify for the final round in the fan vote. 

Soto might be getting penalized by his lack of games played. The corner outfielder has only appeared in 55 games. Although that’s not terrible, the vast majority of players ahead of him in the voting have been around or above 70 games played. Acuña Jr. is the outlier, having only appeared in 53 contests. 

If Acuña Jr. is second in voting, Soto should be right there with him and not be penalized with lack of games played. In fact, it’s even more impressive that Soto is tied with Pages in HRs among NL outfielders with 15. Only Ian Happ, Walker and the aforementioned Wood are ahead of Soto in that category. 

I don’t think players should be elevated or penalized based on the team they play for, but Soto’s numbers stand out even more when considering how disappointing the Mets offense has been. As New York has dealt with numerous injuries as well, Soto has not enjoyed any protection in the lineup. 

Soto’s patient approach has gone a long way towards his overall offensive output this season. Despite missing time due to injury, Soto is still eighth in walks among outfielders in his league. He has walked more than he has struck out, which shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, but it really is put in perspective when compared to the seven players ahead of him. Wood has the most walks among NL outfielders but has nearly 100 strikeouts on the season.

Even with the large strikeout numbers, it’s clear that Wood should be one of the starting outfielders when the NL takes the field in Philadelphia next month, but who should be awarded the other two spots? For the purposes of cutting down the field, let’s just take a look at the other eight in the voting update. 

Although he has the glamour and is currently tracking to cruise to the next round, I think we can rule out Acuña Jr. among players who should be in contention to start the All-Star Game and the same can be said for Hernández, who is currently on the injured list. Maybe, I am just being too nice and wanting someone to gain recognition for a breakout performance, but Walker’s breakout year is deserving of locking down one of the other slots. 

The St. Louis Cardinals late bloomer has the most hits among NL outfielders with an OPS north of .900. Hits and RBI might be things of the past, but Walker is the biggest reason St. Louis has been one of the biggest surprises in all of baseball. His baseball savant page is more red than the Cardinals’ city connect jerseys. 

That leaves just one more spot, and I’m going to rule out Pages. The Dodgers outfielder has been a huge boost with Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker struggling mightily. He is tied with Walker when it comes to driving in runs, and definitely is deserving to make it as a reserve, but his slash line doesn’t compare favorably to the other top contenders. For most voters, people might lean towards Carroll, who is very deserving, but my last vote would go in an unorthodox direction. 

Mets fans might kill me for saying this, but I would actually lean towards Harris II. Harris II is currently hitting north of .300 with 14 bombs. I don’t have a problem with Soto grabbing the spot over the Braves centerfielder, but Harris has a nice balance of contact and power. Plus, he is in the 95th percentile in outs above average (it also doesn't hurt that Harris II can be the NL's centerfielder). Harris II is probably not the popular choice and doesn’t have the OPS numbers, but he has been a huge reason Atlanta has not missed a beat despite Acuña Jr. and Drake Baldwin being forced to miss time. 

The reserves in the NL will also be fascinating. Soto deserves to be one of them independent of likely being the Mets’ lone representative. After Soto, I would give the edge to Carroll and Marsh. Carroll currently has 35 extra-base knocks (including eight triples).

I also went with Marsh because his .324 average is refreshing in the year 2026. You could make the case that Jung Hoo Lee of the Giants is just as deserving due to an even higher average, but I gave Marsh the tiebreaker due to his OPS being over 40 points higher. If the NL does carry a seventh outfielder (they did so last year), Pages would be my pick. Pages had a great start to the year but has since cooled off. He is tied with Walker for the most RBI in all of baseball, but that is also aided by hitting behind Shohei Ohtani. 

The NL outfield is arguably the deepest position on the ballot this summer. That shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise given the overall strength of the NL compared to the AL. Even if the Mets had multiple All-Star selections, Soto would be deserving regardless to make the final roster. Given he did miss time earlier in the season, I had a hard time putting him in as the starter, but based on my selections above, either he or Carroll should be the first man off of the bench.

Alex Rubinson - Forever Young: Mets Hope First Baseman's Hot Stretch Lives Forever

The New York Mets made the unpopular decision in the offseason to let homegrown star Pete Alonso head towards the beltway to join the Baltimore Orioles. David Stearns was hoping to spread out the money saved on Alonso throughout the rest of the roster. The team inked Jorge Polanco to a multi-year contract with the plan to play him at first. The team also had Mark Vientos on the roster, who was not that far removed from a breakout 2024 campaign. As the Mets season has spiraled, the team has gotten solid production at first base lately. It’s not just from the player that anyone expected. 

Coming into the week, Jared Young had only played in 22 games. The sample size is incredibly small, but his .291/.375/.509 slash line has been a pleasant surprise to both the fan base and the front office. If Young qualified, his .884 OPS would be second on the team to Juan Soto. Young has been red hot and has provided an offensive spark since he was activated off of the injured list on May 26th. He has a 150 wRC+ on the year. Essentially, Young has been 50% better than the average hitter in his limited playing time. 

Although Young’s performance might be more of a flash in the pan, his process has greatly improved at the dish. He still strikes out a quarter of the time, which is not ideal, but that number is still down almost 10% compared to 2024 and would be the lowest of his MLB career. In addition to him striking out less often, he is also drawing more free passes. His 11 percent walk rate is above average to begin with, but it looks even better when taking into account he only walked four percent a season ago. 

Young has been very lucky with .351 batting average on balls in play, but that also stems from him squaring everything up. He currently has a hard hit rate of over 52% with a barrel rate of nearly 18%. The hard hit rate has jumped about 13 percentage points compared to 2025. His expected average of .284 is not that far off from his actual average. Plus, his expected slug (.514) is slightly higher than what Young was slugging coming into the week (.509). His walk rate has also been a main contributor as to why Young xWOBA is just a couple of clicks under the .400 mark. 

Even if Young’s BABIP is destined to regress, the quality of contact has been so good that Young’s numbers shouldn’t suffer astronomically. The most stark contrast is the fact that Young has gained seven miles per hour on his average exit velocity. It currently stands at 92 MPH, which is not that far off from a hard hit ball by MLB’s definition. 

Young has shown tremendous improvement regardless of fastball or offspeed, but it’s still fascinating to look at the breakdowns of where he has taken the biggest strides. Specifically against the four-seamer, Young has cut his whiff rate by 20%. Last year, he was under the Mendoza line when it came to hitting any type of fastball. This year, his average is up over 200 points. It’s ironic that his slugging has gone down from last year, but his more consistent approach has allowed me to produce better overall results against hard stuff. The exact opposite is true when facing offspeed pitches. Young’s average has taken a hit, but is doing more damage. 

His slugging is way up, and there is reason to believe he has also been unlucky. Although he only has a .222 average versus offspeed pitches, his expected average sits nearly at .295. Although he posted a very respectable .286 average last on offspeed stuff, his expected average was under .150. Yes, Dusty Baker was famous for saying he only cared about exit hits, Young’s performance on offspeed pitches this season should improve while his performance last year was not sustainable. 

This season, Young has pulled the ball in the air 20% of the time. That’s actually not the highest in his career (2023 takes it), but the biggest difference is Young being more on time. Typically when you are pulling the ball, you are more out in front, which allows you to unlock more of that power. If you are going to the opposite field, you are typically late. 

Hitters have success both ways, but when lifting the ball, most players want to pull it (unless you’re Aaron Judge or James Wood). This season, Young’s opposite field air rate is under three percent. That is way down from about 29% a season ago. 

Fangraphs and Baseball Savant have also graded Young as a slightly above average defender. It can’t be easy given Young has played a few games in the outfield along with spending most of his time at first base. Both websites have him as a plus-one in fielding run value with Fangraphs also having him at plus-one in outs above average, explaining that Young has better than average range. 

Jared Young’s current OPS is over 100 points higher than what he has posted in his career. His average is 60 points higher than his career number. It’s too far to say that Young is quickly becoming a .300/.400/.500 player, who has unlocked a few extra gears in his age 30 season. Remember, he had only tallied 64 plate appearances coming into the series against the St. Louis Cardinals. 

With that being said, Young is checking off every underlying statistical box that one wants to see in 2026. He is striking out less and walking more. He is pulling his flyballs. Despite a high BABIP, his expected numbers point towards him not being lucky. Although he might not play a premium position, his defense is getting better with age. Jorge Polanco appeared on the precipice of making his return to Queens but has been shut down due to ankle soreness that popped up during his rehab stint. Whether Polanco is forced to miss just an extra week or a whole other month, Carlos Mendoza needs to find ways to get Young consistent opportunities. Carson Benge’s breakout is probably more sustainable and beneficial for the Mets’ long-term plans, but Young is proving that he can be more of a player than his constant shipped to and from the minor leagues.

Alex Rubinson - The Mets Need to Fully Unleash Jonah Tong

Let’s go back to the 2018 postseason. The most iconic moment during that October was a young Milwaukee Brewers hurler in Brandon Woodruff shocking the world by hitting a bomb off of Clayton Kershaw, the future slam dunk Hall of Famer. It was even more impressive that it was lefty versus lefty. 

The Brewers would lose that series, but they did take game one with Woodruff being the hero on the mound and at the plate. What most people forget about that contest is that Milwaukee’s starter that day was not Woodruff but Gio Gonzalez. Woodruff was the second pitcher to enter the game in what was a bullpen game for the Brewers. 

So what does this 2018 moment have to do with the 2026 New York Mets? Back when he was running the show in Milwaukee, David Stearns often got his top pitching prospects acclimated to the big leagues by throwing them into reliever roles, like what we saw with Woodruff. 

It’s hard to argue against the philosophy given Milwaukee's history of developing pitchers. With that being said, that idea should not be universal in how every pitcher is treated, which brings us to the present day Mets. 

Yesterday, New York optioned prized prospect Jonah Tong down to AAA after his third appearance of the season. Although we expected Tong to get most of the work on Tuesday night, it was still a mystery as to how Stearns and Carlos Mendoza would deploy the righty. As I outlined above, using young future starting pitchers in the bullpen can be a successful way to get them comfortable pitching at the big league level. 

It also needs to be determined on a case-by-case basis with a heavy influence being on the state of the team. The Brewers embraced pitching chaos and had a history of being able to execute it effectively. The Mets have had more success as of late, but with the starting rotation struggling, it made very little sense to use Tong out of the bullpen. 

After Clay Holmes suffered a fractured fibula that will hold him out for the foreseeable future, the Mets didn’t have an immediate replacement. This went along with David Peterson’s struggles in the starting five along with Sean Manaea being relegated to the bullpen before a promising bulk outing on Monday. All of this is to say that Tong should be a staple of the Mets rotation going forward. 

Tong’s outings won’t always be pretty (3.1 innings and four earned runs in his last appearance out of the bullpen illustrated that). He’s still young and will undergo a lot of growing pains. Maybe I am naive in thinking the Mets season is still far from over. Although it hurts to be in the National League compared to the American League, teams have comeback from greater deficits. 

With that being said, this is still a team that is well under .500. As Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing injected some life into the lineup, the youth movement should not stop there but instead extend to the rotation. 

Although the sample size is incredibly small, some of the numbers coming into Tong’s bulk outing on Tuesday were intriguing. Even with his clunker on Tuesday against the Seattle Mariners, Tong had induced plenty of weak contact. He has a minuscule barrel rate of just six percent with a 30% hard hit rate. 

Opponents are unable to square up any of Tong’s pitches. Prior to his last appearance, the young right-hander had an incredible 55% ground ball rate. Some of these values are in large part due to Tong barley pitching in 2026, but even if there is some regression to the mean built in, this might be the type of pitcher Tong blossoms into. 

The weak contact had helped Tong pitch to a .168 opponent batting average in his first couple of bullpen outings. When comparing his first two appearances this year to a season ago, he had cut his barrel rate by two-thirds and increased his ground ball rate by nearly 15 percentage points. 

Although it got roughed up on Tuesday, Tong had a fastball run value of two coming into that day. Last year, in limited playing time, it was at negative four. A plus-six jump is monumental. 

Tong isn’t throwing any harder than he did a year ago. Instead, he is actually throwing fewer four-seam fastballs. Maybe this changes as he works deeper into ballgames, but cutting back on the pitch has made it more lethal. 

His four-seamer is still his primary pitch, but instead of going to it 57% of the time in 2025, that is now down to 45% this season. The pitch that has potentially taken his repertoire up a notch? That would be a cutter. Tong did not have a cutter in his back pocket a season ago, but he has gone to that pitch over 20% of the time (including a hefty number against Seattle). The cutter has made up for fewer four-seam fastballs, while also cutting his curveball usage in half. 

Tong was one of the hottest pitching prospects in all of baseball before making his debut towards the end of last season. No one should have any takeaways based on the minimal sample he has showed the baseball world. What has not been fair to him in his short 2026 stint is the lack of clarity with how he is being used. 

It’s quite possible these decisions are being more thoroughly discussed behind closed doors, but even hours before first pitch Monday night in Seattle, Mendoza laid out a possibility that Tong could be the guy out of the bullpen following Austin Warren as the opener. There should be enhanced clarity and consistency with how Tong will be utilized. 

The San Francisco Giants have faced a lot of much-deserved scrutiny for not playing star prospect Bryce Eldridge everyday, but the same could be said for not having Tong be a fixture in the five-man rotation. The Mets don’t have the luxury the Brewers had almost a decade ago. They are not the same team. They are not the same organization. 

With Holmes out and others not living up to the Mets hopes and dreams, Tong deserves every opportunity to start every fifth day. There will be bumps along the way, but Jonah Tong is ready to be thrusted into action from the very first inning. Right now, it’s just a matter of the Mets fully letting him go.

Alex Rubinson - Mets Defense has not Lived up to Offseason Plan

During the offseason, a lot of the talk was on how the New York Mets were going to fix its pitching staff. Even after the team acquired Freddy Peralta in a blockbuster deal with the Milwaukee Brewers, there were still questions on how the Mets would be able to keep their opponents off of the scoreboard. It is well-documented how expensive pitching can be. That is something that will never change whether it be in free agency or via the trade market. 

David Stearns was well aware of this and tried to get around it by adopting a strategy he had used going back to his days with the Brewers. He made it a point of emphasis to focus on run prevention, even at the expense of the team’s offensive output. Although signing infielders like Jorge Polanco and Bo Bichette raised some highbrows, the team acquired Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo (despite Nimmo clearly being the better offensive player at this point in their respective careers). 

Stearns also traded for Luis Robert Jr. to patrol centerfield. Even the aforementioned Bichette wouldn’t have to play shortstop with Francisco Lindor in the fold. The plan definitely left Stearns and the front office open to criticism, but at the least the organization established a plan heading into the 2026 season. 

Fast forward two months into the season, and we can start having meaningful takeaways. The offense has been abysmal with some of the offseason additions not stepping up, but with Lindor and Francisco Alvarez on the shelf, the team has minimal options on who to turn to in the big moment. Although the offense is what will grab all of the headlines, the defense has left a lot to be desired. It doesn’t help that Robert Jr. and Lindor have missed significant time, but the team can’t even accomplish what it was designed to do. 

Coming into play on Wednesday, the team was in the lower third of the league in fielding run value at minus five. When looking at overall outs above average, the Mets are at negative eight. What’s puzzling is that the team struggles to come in on balls and go backwards. Only three teams are worse than the Mets when coming in on balls and a different set of three teams are the only ones that are worse when having to go backwards. 

It’s also noteworthy that the team is especially bad when facing left-handed hitters. The team once again ranks 27th in MLB in outs above average in that category at minus nine. Oddly enough, they are actually above average versus right-handers. 

The outfield specific metrics don’t look any better at negative three outs above average. This directly stems from the team being a minus three when they have to go back on batted balls. The only team worse when traveling backwards are the Miami Marlins. Of course going backwards is incredibly difficult. It’s why you see more outfielders playing deeper in today’s game, but the Mets stick out even compared to the rest of the league. 

Overall, the Mets have an 87% success rate in the outfield. That might not seem all that bad, but the three worst teams in that metric are at 85%. The infield is even worse. They are at negative six overall in outs above average with negative seven against lefties. The infield is pretty good at moving back on balls but really struggles at charging in. 

Looking back at the aforementioned trade that sent Nimmo to the Texas Rangers for Semien, it has gone even worse than imagined. The thinking behind the trade was that Nimmo was an aging player who already had to move off of centerfield. Although Semien was even worse offensively, his contract was shorter, and he had value defensively. The move has not gone to plan to say the least. Semien ranks outside the top 30 (remember, there are only 30 teams in MLB) in outs above average at second base. 

At minus three, only three second baseman are worse among qualifiers. Meanwhile, Nimmo has been an average defender with zero outs above average. Do you want to guess who is tied with Nimmo as an average defender? If you guessed Luis Robert Jr., you would be correct. Outs above average is a cumulative statistic, so Robert Jr. might be better if he wasn’t on the injured list, but his average defense does show that he wasn’t necessarily lighting it up in center when he was healthy. 

Ironically, Bo Bichette, the move that appeared to go against the Mets’ offseason philosophy, has actually worked out. Bichette is tied for the team lead among qualifiers with three outs above average. Meanwhile, Tyrone Taylor has been a below average defender. The Mets knew coming into the season that some of the players up and down their roster might be underwhelming offensively, but they figured they would help make up for it on the other side of the ball. 

At the very least, Luis Torrens has lived up to his end of the bargain. The former New York Yankee has a plus four fielding run value (91st percentile). The defensive mastermind has been fantastic at holding runners as well thanks to his 98th percentile pop time and 97 percentile caught stealing above average. 

Mets fans probably would like to see Torrens get better at blocking pitches. He is in the 55th percentile in blocking, which is still solid, but given the limited offensive production, you would like Torrens to be as close to perfect as possible on defense. 

The Mets have not played like a sound defensive team throughout the first third of the season. Not all metrics and statistics show the Mets as a bottom five defensive ballclub, but when run prevention was the priority all offseason and was what the entire organization preached during the winter, they should be held to a slightly higher standard, especially compared to what the team has put on display so far in 2026.  

Alex Rubinson - Austin Warren is Proof that David Stearns still has his Fastball

In January, 2025, the New York Mets made an acquisition that popped up on the transaction wire that most fans and media paid barely any attention to. David Stearns claimed a reliever, Austin Warren, off of waivers from the San Francisco Giants. The relief pitcher had made just eight total appearances over the previous two seasons with the Giants and Los Angeles Angels. January is typically a time when front offices are looking for arms to just get the team through spring training. Warren appeared to fit that mold. 

He stuck around for the entire season with the organization, but bounced between the big league club and the team’s Triple-A team in Syracuse. Although he impressed in limited playing time, he only tossed just over nine innings. During the offseason, the Mets spent big to replace Edwin Diaz at the back of their pen by signing Luke Weaver and Devin Williams along with acquiring Tobias Myers, and Warren failed to break camp with the team. 

Over the last month, Warren’s 2026 season has mirrored his 2025 campaign with being transported back and forth between Syracuse and Queens. While the Mets have struggled to open the season, the bullpen has been pretty steady. As the Mets continue to navigate the long grueling summer months, Warren has proven and earned the opportunity to stick with the team for the foreseeable future. 

Warren has not made more than 16 appearances once in a single season but entering Wednesday, he has already toed the rubber 10 times to start 2026. He has stuck out as one of New York’s top relievers who should continue to get high-leverage opportunities, as he has recorded a miniscule 0.69 ERA and a WHIP that is barely north of 1.00. Although it’s difficult to say that Warren will carry those numbers through a full season, he should give the Mets quality innings and can be used in a variety of situations. 

In an era when teams are constantly chasing velocity, Warren breaks that trend. His fastball averages just under 94 MPH. It’s funny to think about a 94 MPH pitch being unimpressive, but that’s the reality we live in in 2026. Due to him not overpowering opposing hitters, his strikeout and whiff numbers aren’t anything to brag home about, but that doesn’t mean he is not effective. His fastball is still an above average pitch in terms of run value with his breaking stuff generating a plus two when it comes to run value. 

His mediocre velocity plays a role in Warren using his sweeper as his primary pitch. The right-hander throws the sweeper almost half of the time. The sweeper will be the pitch to watch moving forward because hitters are hitting just a touch above .210 against it, but the expected average is over 50 points north of that. This isn’t to say it’s a bad pitch, but hitters might be guessing sweeper based on how often he throws it. Warren also has yet to give up a knock against his sinker. That rate will not continue, but it does show that hitters are unable to square up the pitch. 

Meanwhile, Warren’s fastball has been unlucky. Batters are hitting over .285 against the offering but are expected to hit under .165. The most eye-popping difference is slugging. As of now, hitters are mashing against the fastball to the tune of an .857 slugging percentage, but the expected slug is less than half of that at just .367. His four-seamer has a lower expected weighted on-base than both the sinker and sweeper, but the actual weighted on-base is north of .480. 

At first glance, one would expect the quality of the contact to be weak and the ball is just finding green grass, but batters do have an exit velocity of 97 MPH on the pitch. On the other hand, there is also a 50% whiff rate. At the end of the day, hitters aren’t making a ton of contact despite the less than stellar velocity, but due to the lack of velocity, hitters are squaring up the pitch when they do put the bat on the ball. 

Looking at guys that throw hard like Mason Miller or Jacob Misiorowski, they can afford to make a mistake or two. Due to their stuff being so nasty, they can get away with missing locations. With Warren, he has proven to be a very good pitcher with a 94 MPH fastball, but he doesn’t have nearly as much wiggle room if he misses his spot.

The biggest difference in Warren’s repertoire between his first season with New York and this year is how often he is mixing in his curveball. Granted, he didn’t pitch a lot last year, but he only threw his curveball once. This season, the reliever is tossing it almost 12% of the time. The curveball has produced the lowest exit velocity of any one of his pitches. 

Warren has also ditched his cutter (a pitch he threw 17% of time a season ago). Justin Willard and company should encourage Warren to throw the curveball at a higher rate. There might come a point where he is throwing the pitch too often, but we haven’t reached that threshold yet. Whenever a pitcher is discovering a new pitch or playing around with his repertoire, he shouldn’t be afraid to test the limits. He can always back off when he has crossed the line.  

The reliever has made strides even from last year. His hard hit rate is down 11% compared to 2025 with his expected weighted on base average down 35 points. Warren’s expected stats do show that his sub 1.00 ERA is probably not sustainable. Instead, he projects as a guy who will have an ERA in the mid 3.00s with an opponent batting average settling in about .215 (not ~ .155). Either way, Warren is a cheap option that can be trusted and relied upon to pitch in a variety of roles. 

Carlos Mendoza should continue to use him in high leverage scenarios until those sparkling actual numbers resemble more of the expected metrics. Stearns has been far from perfect during his Mets tenure, but he has always found hidden gems in the reliever market, and that part of his game still hasn’t wavered. 

Alex Rubinson - Carson Benge Quietly Blossoming into All-Around Player

Carson Benge had his welcome to the big leagues moment last night when he delivered the walk-off knock to cap off a three-hit night. Even with that, Benge has gotten off to a slow start to begin his major league career, as the outfielder came into Wednesday hitting .215 with a .611 OPS. Nobody was sounding the alarms, but during a time when you have rookies taking the league by storm, patience is something that most fans don’t have. Benge is in the 92nd percentile in launch angle sweet spot, so he might be due for some better luck in the near future, especially considering his solid exit velocities. It obviously doesn’t help when the rest of the Mets lineup is in a season-long slump, as more pressure falls on younger players and contributors to produce at a higher level. Benge’s offensive production should come around eventually, but in the meantime, he has shown to be an impactful starter even when his piece of lumber goes cold.

Benge has already proven he is a plus fielder in the outfield. He has played all three spots in the outfield, which is valuable knowing that not everyone will play 162 games (as the Mets have been made aware to start 2026). Although right field has been his primary spot, it’s not always easy to be constantly move around, but Benge has shown he is more than up to the task. As it stands coming into yesterday’s matchup against the Tigers, Benge was in the 86th percentile in outs above average, which measures a fielder’s range. Although it makes sense to station the rookie in right field for now, Benge has shown he can play all three outfield spots with range being one of the biggest factors. In addition to his stellar range, Benge has one of the best arms in baseball. He only stands at 6’1” and 184 pounds, but he ranks in the 93rd percentile in arm strength. So far, Benge has recorded 94 MPH on his throws. That is just outside the top five in the league regardless of position and is ahead of players such as Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuña Jr. His range to go along with his rocket arm has propelled Benge to being a plus defender in fielding run value. 

One of the main reasons Benge’s defense has transitioned to the big leagues is his ability to read the ball off of the bat. Benge gets some of the best jumps in all of baseball. It’s actually interesting to note that he is pedestrian in his routes and even his reaction time is solid but nothing to write home about compared to the rest of the league. Where Benge separates himself from the pack is his burst. He sneaks into the top 10 in burst, which will help him make up ground even if his routes aren’t crisp. Mets fans should want to see Benge improve in his route running, but that is something that can get better with coaching and experience. Remember, he is still learning how to navigate his own home ballpark. We see this all come together with his top 10 ranking in the average feet he covers on the ground. He covers 2.5 feet over the average ballplayer. That is ahead of Ceddanne Rafaela and just below Jacob Young. All of this leads to him being seventh in feet covered at over 37 feet (less than a foot below the speedy Chandler Simpson). 

When it comes to positioning, it will be interesting to see if the Mets explore playing Benge deeper in the outfield. He is much better at coming in on balls than going back. This shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. For any person, it’s easier to sprint forward than go back and then locate a moving object. His metrics going back aren’t anything to be concerned about. It’s not like he is a completely different player, but he is not a plus-player when having to go back on balls. 

Baseball Savant categorizes the difficulty of catches with a certain number of stars based on the probability of making the play. It’s a simple one to five scale with one star being the easiest and five stars being the hardest. Although Benge has scuffled hauling in those five-star opportunities, he has made three of the five four star plays. The three plays he has made only trails Pete Crow-Armstrong. Although 60% still leaves room for improvement, it is tied with Corbin Carroll. Benge has also made the easier plays as well. He has not missed a single one-star catch and is tied with Acuña  Jr. and Young in two-star percentage (87.5%). He’s technically also perfect on three-star plays but has only had one opportunity. 

In addition to his great defense, Benge has added a ton of value on the basepaths. He ranks in the 89th percentile in base running value and in the 87th percentile in sprint speed. He is positive both in baserunning runs and base-stealing runs. 

Benge has already shown the Mets organization he is a valuable player. It’s tough to see past some of his offensive numbers given the lack of production from the majority of the Mets lineup, but it is unfair to point the finger at a 23-year-old rookie. Being a great defender and plus baserunner already gives Benge a solid floor and reason to stick in the majors. Not to mention, Benge has also shown improvement at the dish. Entering Wednesday, the rookie was slashing .333/.385/.542 over his last week’s worth of games. Even over his last 15 contests, his average sat above .290. 

In a time when you have phenoms who hit the ground running before they can legally drink, it’s easy to lose sight of how young some of these players are and the inevitable learning curve they face. After New York promoted top prospect A.J. Ewing, Benge is no longer the new kid in town with all eyes on him. He is in the perfect spot with the public giving him time to get acclimated without the pressure of being the newest and brightest object. Even as Benge sees pitchers a second time and gets more comfortable playing in front of thousands of people on a nightly basis, he has already proven that he is a three-tool player while his hit tool could be catching up.