8/19/26

Reese Kaplan -- For the 2027 Season Mets Ask, "What's on Second?"


During the club’s history the Mets have had a great many people man second base who contributed with the bat, the glove, their legs or a combination of all three. 

Then came Marcus Semien...

In a trade as much about payroll obligation as it was about personnel, David Stearns sent Brandon Nimmo and his remaining salary obligation of nearly $118 million to the Texas Rangers to obtain a reduced payroll hit of $72 million for what is likely the final three years of Marcus Semien’s career. 

While the financial narrative makes some sense, the performance data does not.  Oddly, as bad as Semien has played for the Mets, he’s actually leading Nimmo this year in HRs, though he trails in RBIs, OPS and by a huge margin of 61 points in batting average.  Is Nimmo worth over $20 million?  Probably not.  Is Marcus Semien worth over $26 million?  Definitely not. 


Fast forward to the 2027 season and the Mets have an interesting decision to make.  Do they eat the remaining $46 million due to Semien for the next two years, do they trot him out again as the starting second baseman or do they relegate him into the role of the most expensive bench player in baseball?

On the first front, it’s not likely to happen though it suggests there is a possibility of swapping him for an equally bad (or worse) contract from another team to fulfill another Mets need.  The second option — retaining him as the starting second baseman — feels somewhat more likely to happen.  His second half numbers have been far better than what he’s done in the first half but it’s really hard to justify a defensively declining .210 hitter being paid $26 million in salary simply because the role is rationalized as justified due to the accounting obligation.

Now as a bench player his salary would be a mighty painful pill to swallow unless you are using him as a coach to mentor a younger replacement taking the starting role.  We’re not talking about Brett Baty who has failed since 2022 with about 1300 ABs of a career .227 average.  That’s not much of an improvement over what Semien can provide at this late stage of his career.

Instead, you could think about short term solutions on a one year basis using thus untested Ronny Mauricio who has heated up in Syracuse where he’s hitting .272 with 14 HRs and 42 RBIs in just over 1/3 of a season’s worth of ABs.  Throw in the 10 SBs as well and you have a guy with power and speed who has never been given the major league starting role for more than a game or two at a time.  Injuries and fellow Mets players have interfered with his career trajectory, but it is possible he could take on the second base role in Queens.

The other contender for this role would be A.J. Ewing who is not a terrific fielder, but has shown himself even through a slump to be a strong contact hitter with moderate power and great speed.  His outfield defense has been pretty impressive and moving him out of center field to make room for the contractual obligation of Luis Robert is another way they could choose to go with Semien hopefully shepherding Ewing into becoming a stronger middle infielder.

Of course, both of these options are considered at best temporary with stellar 21 year old  minor leaguer Mitch Voit being the expected second baseman of the future.  While currently torturing AA pitchers to the tune of a .444 batting average over his first 63 Binghamton ABs, you can’t argue with his legs.  In less than a full season during 2025 and 2026 he has swiped 62 bases while also contributing 13 HRs and 59 RBIs.  It may be too soon to project him in Queens on opening day 2027 but he’s the next one everyone expects to see deliver a high level of production.

Finally, another route the Mets could take would be to sign a short term free agent to man second base for next season.  At the high end you have Jazz Chisholm and Gleyber Torres but both would require multiyear deals and in effect block Voit in 2028.  Slightly below them would be Brandon Lowe who at age 32 might be open to a multiyear deal with mutual opt outs.  

17 comments:

Mack Ade said...

The promotion of Emilien Pitre to AAA speaks volumes who's gets first shot at second "someday" . The question should be when is someday

After him - Sammy time

RVH said...

My thinking on 2B has evolved significantly over the past 60 days. It is clear that Voit or one of the other recently acquired infielders will take over 2B likely sometime in 27 or definitely by 28. Semien is a very expensive sunk cost.

Given how the Mets have stabilized & how impactful their SP & OF youth has become, I don’t think it’s wise to spend incremental $&& at 2B next year.

I do think the Mets will start with Semien at 2B unless: is hurt in ST or he completely collapses from his already terrible stats.

If bad to bet, I’d put money down on Voit starting at 2B by next Memorial Day with Semien as his mentor & utility IF. Semien goes the way of Cano by late 27 or beginning of 28.

Mauricio is interesting - maybe he gets a September cup of coffee at 2B. I think the Mets will hold off until Bichette makes his decision: if he stays, then the Mets package Mauricio with someone to a different need, if Bichette opts out, maybe Mauricio is a placeholder at 3B (or Baty) until Jackson is also ready or Lindor move to 3B in 28?

2B is much less of a concern at this point. SP depth, RP are the biggest needs.

(1B & DH matter as well but until Polanco is also worked through the cycle, it may be a platoon of Morel & Young for a year).

Mack Ade said...

I forgot Voit

Had a lot on my mind this week

Now I'm real confused

Mack Ade said...

Mauricio no longer has a future on this team

Tom Brennan said...

Emilien Pitre has not evidenced power so far, as a Mets minor leaguer, but is 17 for 44 in AA/AAA so far, with just 4 Ks. He and Voit who has cooled a bit lately both have excellent chances of unseating Semien on Day 1

Emilien is .318/.424/.444 this season, his second full pro season. Wow. 33 steals in 99 games. Strong glove.

Voit could be 3B if Rojas isn’t yet ready. But Rojas looking really good, too.

Jules C-- The Cautious Optimist said...

I agree that 2B is not a priority comparable to SP and RP. But it can be an opportunity and also represents adding another building block for 2028. We have real potential at 2B in two players: Voit and Petri. Will either at their best be as good as Semien was at his best? The right answer is that they will be different and better from teh point of view of how the Mets are constructing themselves in terms of DNA and approach to offensive production.
If I had to rank priorities for next year it would be front of the rotation, back of the bullpen, DH, the combination of players and backups on the right side of the infield, and a fourth outfielder. Somewhere in that group we need a legitimate power hitter as well --
Aspirationally, I would love to see Mauricio be given a chance and rise to the occasion. If he were to do that, he could be a significant upgrade over Polanco as LH DH and back-up infielder.

RVH said...

What to do with Polanco…

Jules C-- The Cautious Optimist said...

When projecting a team, my biggest issue is always figuring out how many question marks are you penciling in to play. The more those question marks have to be answered with a Yes for your team to succeed, the less confidence you should have in your projections. The Mets don't have many genuine question marks. What they have are a lot of potential opportunities, and different ways to go, and that is a better problem to have.
On the other hand, they do have a couple of real vulnerabilities that could change the strategic plan. If Bichette opts out, they have to rethink their approach to infield entirely if they want to compete.
If they don't land a top of the rotation starter, they will be asking too much of their rotation, and won't have a staff that is built for the playoffs. If they don't land a very credible 4th outfielder, they will be vulnerable to any injury to the big three.
So what they don't have now is genuine stability and replacements. Too much potential variablility in performance outcomes due to vulnerabilities. 2B issue and 1B issue and 4th outfielder on their own are like a person who has a potential aches and pains, but 3B and starting pitcher issues and back of bullpen are more like the kind of issue that calls for major surgery. Bad analogy but I hope you see the point

Viper said...

I would use Mauricio at 2B, give him a real chance and see what happens. What you cannot do is to bring him up to sit on the bench which is mostly what has been done with him.

None of the newly acquired kids are ready so Mauricio is the proper choice. He has speed, power and good defense. We have already seen what Baty and Semien can do which is not much.

Mack Ade said...

Read me on Friday 6am

The 2027 is just fine

Mack Ade said...

Loading chamber...

Mack Ade said...

I've said this until blood comes out of my arse

Winning takes excellent starting pitching that not only limit runs given m up but also go past five innings

Mack Ade said...

Viper

The dream is over...

Tom Brennan said...

I think Pitre and Voit will be as ready, time-wise, in 2027 as Benge and Ewing have been in 2026. Rojas mid-2027. Mauricio? I always feel partially good about him, but there are always a few BUTS…just like Baty and Vientos.

RVH said...

Problem self-corrected with his move to the IL

RVH said...

Great visual
Mack!

Agree 100% Jules

Jules C-- The Cautious Optimist said...

If I were a betting man I would say we won't see Polanco until ST next year, and even then, if he isn't a completely different player, we won't be seeing him for very long. We all know the expression: don't throw good money after bad.
However, most people don't recognize that depriving someone else with more expected value of an opportunity, is in baseball, one of the worst but least appreciated ways of doing exactly that. As a family office hedge fund manager, certainly Cohen understands that!