8/4/26

Steve Sica - Evaluating the Mets Trade Deadline


The trade deadline is officially behind us, and the Mets were one of the busiest teams during these last few days.

Plenty of new prospects are joining the MiLB ranks from St. Lucie to Syracuse, and now former Mets are on their way to contenders to try to help them go deep into October. Let's take a look at how the Mets did with their haul of prospects.

1. 

Mets get: INF Billy Amick and Bruin Agbayani 

Twins get: A.J. Minter

Late on Thursday night, the Mets started the deadline strong when they parted with veteran reliever A.J. Minter and brought in Billy Amick and Bruin Agbayani.

This was a solid haul for Minter and had a bit of Mets lore attached to it, with Bruin being the son of 2000 NL Champion and fan favorite Benny Agbayani. He was also the better half of the pair of prospects that came over. Now ranked as the 29th best prospect in the Met system per Pipeline, Agbayani had a small sample size in Low-A before injuries kept him out most of the season. 

In ten games with Fort Myers, he went 11-for-41 with three doubles, six RBIs, nine walks, and just three strikeouts. He's only 19 years old, so there's plenty of time to develop him.

While not ranked in the top-30, Amick is a great get. He slugged 23 home runs with Double-A Wichita and already cranked out his first home run with Binghamton over the weekend. He has high power but high strikeout numbers, very Ryan Clifford-like. Still, his raw power is intriguing, and it'll be entertaining watching him progress through the system.

Trade grade: B-

2. 

Mets get: OF Aidan Smith, 2B Emilien Pitre and RHP Gary Gill Hill

Rays get: Freddy Peralta

You were never going to get back the same return as the Mets gave up for Peralta over the winter, and unfortunately, Peralta did himself and the Mets no favors by having the worst year of his career to this point. 

Still, the Mets came away from this trade with a decent haul. Outfielder Aiden Smith is the headline prospect in this deal, ranking as he sits as the Mets' 14th-best prospect. He's had a bit of a rough season in High-A, batting just .215, with a .693 OPS. There's some potential here, though. He was drafted in the 4th round back in 2023 and, in 2024, batted .288 with an OPS of .874 in Low-A.

The prospect I'm most excited about in this deal is Emilien Pitre, currently ranked as the 17th-best Met prospect. He has fantastic contact numbers and plate discipline, batting .323 with 30 walks to 17 strikeouts and an OPS of .943. He's very much like the type of hitters the Mets are developing in Carson Benge and A.J Ewing. Get on base, minimize strikeouts, a little speed, and work up counts. 

Gary Gill Hill comes in at the 19th-ranked prospect in the Mets system, and while his 4.43 ERA in Double-A isn't anything to brag about, his K/BB ratio is. In 81 innings, he's struck out 61 batters while walking just 14.

Trade grade: B

3. 

Mets get: RHP Gabe Davis and RHP Zach Franklin 

White Sox get: Huascar Brazoban

A fairly uneventful trade. Brazoban is 37, and while he's been having a great season this year, he was a disaster in 2024 and streaky in 2025. I think some fans overvalued him, and this return was met with a lot of disappointment. For what it is, it's a fair trade on both sides.

Zach Franklin will likely find himself in Queens before the end of summer, and Gabe Davis, standing at 6'9 is an imposing presence on the mound that reminds me of fellow tall reliever, 6'5 Dylan Ross. While his 8.31 ERA in Double-A is alarming, he did have a 2.63 ERA in High-A across 27 innings of work. The adjustment between those two levels is the hardest, so patience might be key in his development.

Trade grade: C

4.

Mets get: RHP Luke Gabrysh and OF John Spikerman

Phillies get: Brooks Raley

This trade was a bit of a surprise considering it's within their division, and also disappointing. 

When you trade a key player to a hated division rival that'll help them potentially win a World Series, you better be getting a decent return of prospects. The Mets failed to do that in this case. I get that 38-year-old Brooks Raley doesn't come with a lot of leverage, but in a market that always values relievers, I feel like the Mets could've gotten more.

Luke Gabrysh isn't ranked and has a 5+ ERA in High-A. Meanwhile, John Spikerman comes in as the Mets 28th ranked prospect. He is a decent hitter with a .260 average and 18 stolen bases. He walked 26 times to 30 strikeouts, so he's another guy who fits into the Mets system.

However, Raley had a sub-two ERA and was easily one of the best relievers on the market. If the Mets couldn't squeeze more out of the Phillies for him, they were better off trading him elsewhere. The market was certainly active for him. Even if the return was similar to what you got from the Phillies, at least you're not giving him up for cheap to your arch-rival.

Trade grade: D

5.

Mets get: SS Sammy Stafura

Pirates get: Luke Weaver

Initially, this trade seemed pretty light considering Luke Weaver isn't just a top reliever but also has another year of control in 2027. 

Nothing against Sammy Stafura as he slots in as the 11th-ranked prospect in the Mets system. A local product out of Cortlandt, NY, he put up excellent numbers with High-A Greensboro. In 47 games, he batted .301 with an OPS of 1.021, slugged 19 home runs, 51 RBIs, and stole 16 bases. He's still only 21-years-old and was a second-round draft pick in 2023. Truly, a great addition to the Met farm system.

Despite all that, when the news broke, you couldn't help but look for his name and another prospect coming back in return; even if it was an unranked guy, Weaver was seen as the best available bullpen arm here, and to sell him off without a top-100 prospect or multiple prospects seemed like a steal for Pittsburgh.

When it came out that the Mets were on the hook for over half of Weaver's contract next year too, this trade went from being alright to just plain dumb. If you're going to be paying $7.5 million to a guy who isn't even on your roster next year, you should be getting a little more than one High-A prospect in return. On the field and off the field, this was a disappointing trade for the Mets as the Pirates lived up to their name and robbed Stearns and the Mets' ship.

Trade grade: D-

6. 

Mets get: 3B Jefferson Rojas

Cubs get: Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor

The Mets ended the deadline on a high note, getting back a top-100 prospect in Jefferson Rojas. He becomes the Mets' best prospect and has a great set of tools in power, speed, and contact. 

At just 21 years old, he's in his first full season of Double-A ball, putting up an OPS of .800 with 15 home runs, 57 RBIs, 19 doubles, and 17 steals. He brings a jolt of excitement into a system that fell off hard this summer when they graduated Carson Benge, A.J Ewing, and Nolan McLean. He also fills a need at third base, a position the Mets have lacked depth in for years at the Major League and MiLB level.

To get this type of return for Clay Holmes, who hasn't started an MLB game since mid-May, and Tyrone Taylor, a serviceable outfield bat, I have to hand it to Stearns here. He might've bombed on the Weaver deal, but ultimately brings back a marquee prospect out of the 2026 fire sale.

Trade grade: A

4 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Great analysis, Steve

Tom Brennan said...

My first thought at all the trades was this team cannot trade all this pitching and not lose a lot, which gets us a valuable top 6 draft pick.

My second thought was I would have NOT traded Weaver. Stafura will be great IF he tames his swing and miss. There were no IF’s with Weaver. He was awesome.

My third thought was a lot of Mets existing prospects just got crowded out of future major league promotions to the Mets. The pipeline is now STUFFED with future major league hitting talent.

Jules C-- The Cautious Optimist said...

Very thoughtful and insightful analysis Steve. I am not in love with having to pay any of Weaver's salary. Still when I look at the overall effect of the deadline deals, I see an organization with more position players with promise at more positions overall and better distributed over levels, thus setting up much better potential time alignment. And I like that we now have redundancy in the infield when once we had none. And I would add that one of the key values of prospects is the opportunity they create for potential trades, etc. going forward. We definitely improved our overall asset holdings. And while we gave up very good assets in some cases, it is important to realize that those mostly were relievers and that is the one area in every offseason that has the largest supply many of whom also come at both relatively low cost and short term. It's the best field to be fishing in -- especially if you have a good eye for talent, and this is an area in which stearns has excelled since his Milwaukee days. That's a reason why I shy away from trade by trade evaluations and favor a view of assets gained overall, assets lost overall, and cost of replacing the assets lost and likelihood of successfully doing so.

TexasGusCC said...

Great article Steve! I am not as kind to Stearns as others around the Internet have been. The bullshit that they “added talent”…. Really? Every player drafted has talent. How much talent did you delete and then added back?

As with most of you, the Weaver trade bothered me. I understand that Greensboro is a hitter’s park and most of his damage was done there, but if they aren’t throwing in another prospect or get a higher ranked one, I’m not giving them their closer. Same with Brazoban. Yes, the kid is 6’9” and throws hard, but he has no idea where it’s going. As for Raley, I’d rather gift him to a team in the American League.

The Holmes deal was shockingly very good. Did the Cubs know that everyone else was ripping Stearns off? Minter was fine.

Stearns is not cut out to run this organization. He has no backbone, he doesn’t stand up for this team and his softness in finally firing Mendoza, squandering money in previous trades and getting players to just cut them later, and now not holding back players for a better return when HE DID NOT HAVE TO TRADE THEM, shows that he will not protect this franchise.