GOTTA GET IN THAT TOP SIX
Last year’s draft lottery odds gave the Mets a slender 0.667% sliver of a chance at winning big.
Like most lottery tickets, that slender sliver did not pay off.
They fell out of the top 6, and incurred a ten slot penalty on top of it due to excessive spending penalty deterrent rules. They got RHP Carson Wiggins all the way down at # 27 as a result. Hopefully he will work out.
Here were the odds for the 2026 draft, per an MLB post:
White Sox (.370) -- 27.73%
Twins (.432) -- 22.18%
Pirates (.438) -- 16.81%
Orioles (.463) -- 9.24%
A’s (.469) -- 6.55%
Braves (.469) -- 4.54%
Rays (.475) -- 3.03%
Cardinals (.481) -- 2.35%
Marlins (.488) -- 1.85%
D-backs (.494) -- 1.51%
Rangers (.500) -- 1.34%
Giants (.500) -- 1.01%
Royals (.506) -- 0.84%
Mets (.512) -- 0.67%
Astros (.537) -- 0.34%
Rockies (.265) -- ineligible
Nationals (.407) -- ineligible
Angels (.444) -- ineligible
“Since the Rockies received a lottery pick in the 2024 and '25 Drafts, they were not eligible for this year’s lottery -- teams cannot receive a lottery pick in more than two consecutive years. The Nationals and Angels were “payor clubs” -- teams that give rather than receive revenue sharing dollars -- and payors cannot receive a lottery pick in consecutive years.”
That is history…
If the Mets end up 7th in the lottery in 2027, they slip to 17th, as I understand it. So the wholesale jettisoning of their MLB pitchers at the trade deadline should have greatly increased their chances of getting into the prized top six slots. Why? Holmes, Weaver, Raley and Minter had an ERA of roughly 2.10 in 161 combined innings. You ain’t easily replicating that for 2 months. So you will lose more.
A site called TANKATHON tracks how their odds are going, of getting into the top 6 draft slots in 2027. One look at their chart and it is clear that your odds of top 6 GREATLY INCREASE if you end up with MLB’s worst record. Losing the most still pays off.
CHECK OUT THE CHART!
Obviously, if the Mets got a top 6 pick in 2027, on top of this year’s trade deadline haul, they’d TRULY be sitting pretty with prospects in the years to come.
Of course, they could mess that up. They already are. Winning.
After all, they are the Mets.
ONE GUY J. DEMAYO RANKED 4TH (METS) FOR 2027 MLB DRAFT
Read this draft hypothetical from Jonathan DeMayo last month:
4. Mets: Landon Hairston, OF, Arizona State.
A Golden Spikes Award finalist this year, the son of former big leaguer Scott Hairston could give the family a fourth-generation big leaguer. Hairston had one of the best seasons of any college hitter in the nation, finishing his sophomore year with a .400/.509/.860 line (in 59 games at Arizona State) to go along with 28 homers, 11 steals and more walks than strikeouts.
Back to me:
He was a year younger than Aiden Robbins, hit 67 points higher than Robbins, and fanned only 27 times as compared to Robbins’ 65 times in the same number of games.
You can see why they’d want the fourth pick.
If, of course, they slip down, they could draft another guy named Jett - Jett Music that is. Real name.
Plays for Campbell University (never heard of it), where he pitched in relief as a sophomore and hit 22 homers in 46 games. This Jett is not a midget - he is 6’2”.
GUYS WHO RECENTLY LEFT THE METS AND RESURRECTED
Maybe all whiffin’ Ryan Clifford needs is…
to go to another organization…
and he will do just fine.
After all, there are precedents.
Some examples:
Alex Ramirez is now hitting .272 with another organization’s AA affiliate, with 37 steals, 60 points higher than his prior 3 Mets minors years.
Jose Siri?
He was hurt as a Met, and went 2 for 32 with 17Ks in 2025. Lead member of the Jorge Polanco Sucks Fan Club, for obvious reasons.
But this year, with the Angels? Of course, .255/.312/.461 in 156 PAs.
OK, 3 more:
Mike Vasil in 2024 got crushed pitching at Syracuse. 8-10, 6.04.
He goes to the White Sox in 2025 and, at the MLB level, goes a terrific 5-3, 2.50. (So, all of you skeptics that think Tong and Wenninger won’t be on the Mets opening day roster in 2027, because they are struggling more than we expected in 2026, remember Vasil).
HMMM…
Jeremiah Jackson sucked in Mets AA in 2024. Barely hit above .200.
Since then, with the Orioles, he has had 404 MLB at bats and hit .248, with 12 long balls and 60 RBIs.
HMMM…
Carlos Cortes was going nowhere fast in the Mets minors. Then he went to the Athletics. In 2025-26, as a part timer, he has hit .273, with 11 HR and 49 RBI in 352 at bats.
HMMM…
I won’t go into other, older examples like Paul Sewald and Colin Holderman, and no, Mack, I won’t mention Pete Crow Armstrong.
Anyway…
If I was Clifford, he would ask to go to the Chicago White Sox system, like Vasil did, so he could get a immediate bump to the majors in 2027 and win AL Rookie of the Year for the White Sox.
HMMM…
10 comments:
Tom
It's not just PCA. I would rather discuss politics that old Mets. I simply don't live in the past like you do. I frankly don't know if you are jumping all over a team for releasing minor league players that repeatedly failed season after season. What were the Mets supposed to do? Promote them to Queens and play them as starters?
I sound harsh.
Don't mean to.
Sorry.
Did you know that Matt Allan story? I didn’t. I was aghast.
Murphy was the one I hated worst. I wanted them to trade Duda after 2015 instead, and put Murph at first base. That was colossal.
But my 8:00 article has much in it. Enjoy.
I'm sorry. I didn't read the Allan story. As soon as I saw the pic, I went to the comment section and lest mine.
*LEFT mine
Someone posted recently that if the Mets do get the 6th pick in 2027 that the 10 slots penalty then is placed on their second round pick. Can anyone verify if this is accurate or not?
DJ, I believe that is true. But that is far less damaging than missing out on a high-impact top 6 pick, over time. There are, of course real exceptions, like Carson Benge. But the flip side is picking a Colin Houck when the pick 10 slots higher is already a MLB infield regular, despite being g a year younger than Houck.
I wish the rules allowed trading draft picks. Imagine trading the Parada #11 plus the Jett #14 picks for a single better pick?
Not to always be negative, these two delayed picks are very amazing:
“It was just two years ago that Mets VP of amateur scouting Kris Gross used the first pick on Carson Benge, a two-way college player who has since become a key part of the Mets’ hope for the future. A year later, Gross added to his haul with second baseman Mitch Voit, who has recently caught fire himself at High-A Brooklyn. While Voit has a long way to go to reach Benge’s level, the Mets harbor similarly high hopes for him.”
They did BTW not have a 2nd round pick in 2026 due to signing Bo Bichette.
Yes, it will apply
The 2022 season’s early draft has been brutal. Druw Jones, Temarr Johnson, Kumar Rocker (6-17 4.84 in majors), Jacob Berry, and Elijah Green (all top 6) have been weak to disastrous. Green mostly in High A this year has a hard to fathom 188 Ks in 103 games. Kumar has been the best of those 5 top 6 picks.
So, the (to date) bust picks of Parada at 11 and Jett at 14 are easier to swallow.
Parada starting to step in the box again with a wiffleball bat
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