Here’s the potential inventory of Mets pen arms for 2027:
Nate Lavender has two big plusses in his
evaluatory worksheet. With the
departures of fellow southpaws Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter the fact he throws
from the left side pushes him well ahead of many other prospective relief
pitchers for the team. Equally important
is his performance in that role. Thus
far through his late starting rookie season he’s been in 17 games with 22 Ks in
17 IP, a WHIP of 0.882 and an ERA just recently compromised for the first time
of just 1.59. You can write his name in
ink for 2027 for sure.
Tobias Myers was part of the trade engaged
that also brought since departed starter Freddy Peralta to the Mets. Myers has been frustrating and lost his spot
on the major league roster during the cellar dwelling 2026 season. The 27 year old has a 3.70 ERA across parts
of three major league seasons. His
ability to switch between starting and relieving is good but the output is not
always what you’d want it to be. He’s on
the probable but not definite side of making the 2027 team’s bullpen.
Dedniel Nunez was frankly amazing after a less
terrific minor league career when he arrived pre injury. He’s back but the numbers simply are not
there. Still, over 49 big league games
he still owns a 3.19 overall ERA which suggests there is something there that
has not surfaced well in 2026. Consider
him a contender but not a guaranteed reliever.
Jonathan Pintaro is going into his age 29
season with a career 4.99 ERA which didn’t even begin at the major league level
until 2025. He’ll take up spring innings
for sure but likely he’s on the outside looking it at this point of his
development.
Kodai Senga is an amazing question mark for
2027. It is unclear if he is a closer, a
setup guy, a starter or trade bait. He
has one final year on his initial contract so the risk to an acquiring team
would be fairly minimal but moving him out would mean he’s leaving the
unsuccessful Devin Williams as the 9th inning in the pen. Could he turn into a latter day David
Robertson to Williams to finish the games?
Sure…but he could also spiral after succeeding and then having his
unasked for role as closer yanked away from him
Austin Warren is going to be turning 31 next
season and despite 80 games of MLB experience he is not regarded as full time
closer material. His career ERA of just
3.48 does indeed suggest that when he is healthy he is a credible arm out there
in the 5th through 7th innings. He’s
likely making the team unless another injury happens.
Jefry Yan is fun man to watch when he
celebrates his frequent strikeouts but his track record before and with the
Mets suggests he’s filler at best. He
walks way too many people and his current 29 year old rookie ERA of 4.60 is alarming. Many would advocate a reunion with free agent
to be Brooks Raley as a better albeit more expensive choice for another lefty.
Daniel Duarte will turn 30 in 2027 and in
parts of four major league seasons he boasts a 3.18 career ERA which has
steadily improved last year with the Twins and this year with the Mets. Health is the big question, of course, but
you’d figure he’s on the short list of returning relievers.
Jack Weisenberger is a 28 year old rookie who
made his debut in the majors when roster needs forced the club’s hand. With a career 4.61 minor league ERA he didn’t
stand out as a top prospect, so his thus far 5-game MLB earned run average of
2.61 is shocking to say the least.
They’ll look at him but it’s an uphill battle for him to make the 2027
club.
Xzavion Curry made it back to start and give
away a game this week. Expect he’s not
in the future plans at all.
Tylor Megill doesn’t cost much but pitchers
who deliver a career ERA of 4.46 with decent strikeout numbers and mediocre
control really can’t say that his name is written in ink on the 2027
roster. He’s had five years to get it
right and thus far hasn’t demonstrated enough ability to warrant security. However, people will be curious to see him
post TJS and mixed long reliever/spot starters are sometimes needed.
Devin Williams owns a career ERA of just 2.70 which
includes his horrific trial in the Bronx for 2025 and nearly as bad numbers in
Queens this year. They’ll likely rush
him back to pitch a game or two in 2026 as it closes out to see what he can do,
to test the fit with Kodai Senga and to open trade interest from other
ballclubs. His salary is high but if and
when he rediscovers his Milwaukee success formula it’s more than reasonable.
Reed Garrett is due back from TJS for the 2027
season. There were times the Mets leaned
heavily on his right arm as a late inning reliever. During his 2024 and 2025 seasons he kept the
ERA under 4.00 but for his career over 142 games it stands at 4.76. He’ll get a long look in Port St. Lucie but
at this point his probability to be on the roster is uncertain.
Dylan Ross is a big right hander with a single
major league game on his resume. He’s
been around since age 23 in the Mets organization but the numbers have never
jumped off the page as someone destined for major league greatness. His minor league ERA is a moderate 3.95 with
very strong strikeout numbers accompanied by an equally alarming tendency to
give up bases on balls. He’ll be 26 and
certainly in camp in Port St. Lucie but until he learns to control the ball better
he’s a fringe candidate at best.
Kevin Herget is recovering from injury but his
good control has not been enough to guarantee success in The Show. He can strike out about one per inning and
yields just over 2 walks in the same interval but by age 35 as he is now his
lack of established metrics and the likelihood he’s in the dwindling end of a
long career suggests he’s another filler at best candidate. The 3.95 career ERA is not awful but not
dominant either.
Justin Hagenman is another pitcher on the
injury recovery pathline. Turning 30 and
never having established himself as a reliever after his starting days ended,
his career 4.10 ERA and moderate other numbers put him in the same category as
Herget though a few years younger.
Gary Gill Hill became a Mets asset mid year as part
of the flurry of trade deadline moves executed by the front office. The young right hander did just make it to
Syracuse to land on the IL to finish the season and he’s got some raw potential
but the thinking here is that he needs to establish himself both as healthy and
capable before being taken seriously as part of the 2027 pen.
4 comments:
A good pen
Not a great one, but one of the top 15
I am excited about Yan. It never really came together for him and he was making no money and having fun. Now, he’s making $800,000 per year, a slap in the face in a good way, which will hone him in.
I look forward to the return of Megill and Garrett. Both pitched well when healthy. I think they will do so again.
Many good choices, but then again, the off-season always becomes a big auction for pen arms. It is entirely possible that we can get a guy like Raley back. You always need lots of arms in reserve.
The back of the pen is everything to a competing team. It's best if the back two pitchers challenge hitters in the zone and are not prone to walking people. Much of the pen is middle relief, matchups, and people who you can bring in to put out a fire that is brewing and stay the course for a few innings when starters fail and you don't want to burn the pen unless you get back into the game.
The matchup pitchers are in their own way high leverage pitchers and thus specialists. These can't be people who give up walks. They face immediate win or lose situations. The Mets were blessed with Raley in this spot. Lavender can do more at this point; and is thus more of a replacement for someone like Minter. Yan has control issues at this point. The best replacement for Raley is Raley on a two year deal. Everyone else mentioned other than Williams (including Duarte, Senga, Nunez, Garrett, etc) have issues.
Senga's issues are two fold. He is doing very well in this role. There may well be interest in him from other teams. Do the Mets keep or trade him? To me that depends on their level of trust in him and his durability for significant usage over the season. The others face a different issue: Are they better than what shows up on the FA market, which is the main area in baseball where price is surpressed by supply. It's also the place where good judgment by FO wins most often and where grabbing a several pitchers with options remaining at low cost is a smart insurance policy while stashing them in minors and giving them deals that raise their salaries if they make the ML club. This is one area that Stearns has historically done well with the outlier being his deadline trades two years ago.
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