RVH – The Race for Six: Back Inside, But Barely

 

Updated through games completed September 16, 2026

Six games ago, the Mets were winning and watching their Draft position deteriorate.

Since then, almost everything has reversed.

Wednesday night's 7–1 loss to Baltimore completed an Orioles sweep and dropped the Mets to 69–83. New York has now lost four straight and gone just 1–5 since our last update.

The strange payoff: the Mets have moved substantially closer to the protected top six.

The Net Change

Mets measure	Last post	Today	Change
Record	68–78	69–83	1–5
Raw reverse-standing	8th	6th	+2 spots
Lottery-eligible position	7th	5th	+2 spots
Estimated top-six odds	39.4%	~63%	~+24 pts
Games remaining	16	10	–6

That is the Race for Six in one table.

The Mets have played considerably worse over the past week, but their chance of landing an actual top-six selection has increased from roughly four in ten to nearly two in three.

Tankathon currently places New York fifth among lottery-eligible clubs, with roughly a 63% chance of receiving one of the first six selections.

Where Things Stand

Using the completed September 16 standings:

Lottery position	Team	Record	Top-six odds
1	Colorado	56–96	~88%
2	Angels	58–94	~88%
3	Athletics	61–91	~88%
4	Kansas City	67–85	~74%
5	Mets	69–83	~63%
6	Washington	71–82	~52%
7	Seattle	71–82	~40%
8	Minnesota	71–81	~29%
9	Cincinnati	71–81	~20%
—	San Francisco	64–89	Ineligible

San Francisco actually owns the fourth-worst raw record but remains lottery-ineligible, which is why the Mets are sixth in the raw standings but fifth among eligible teams.

Seattle's late win Wednesday created another wrinkle. The Mariners and Nationals are both 71–82. Washington gets the better Draft position under the prior-season-record tiebreaker because the Nationals finished 66–96 in 2025 while Seattle went 90–72.

That leaves the Mets only 1½ games clear of Washington and Seattle.

So fifth is better.

It is not comfortable.

The Post-Deadline Picture Has Changed Too

When we introduced the post-trade-deadline comparison last week, it provided an important counterweight to the Draft standings.

The Mets were 21–12 since August 4, a .636 winning percentage, and had outplayed every team in this group by at least three games.

That advantage has narrowed quickly.

Team	Since Aug. 4	Win%	GB Mets
Mets	22–17	.564	—
Kansas City	21–18	.538	1.0
Baltimore	21–20	.512	2.0
Detroit	18–22	.450	4.5
Cincinnati	18–23	.439	5.0
Washington	16–23	.410	6.0
Seattle	16–24	.400	6.5
Minnesota	15–24	.385	7.0

The Mets still own the best post-deadline record in this group.

But last week they had a three-game cushion over the next-best club.

Today it is one game.

That feels like the more balanced way to view what is happening. The Mets' post-deadline stretch still represents meaningful improvement over the first four months of the season. The last six games are also a reminder that we should not extrapolate too much from a good five-week run.

Ten Games Left

And now the margins are getting very small.

The Mets have ten games remaining: four against Philadelphia, three in Texas and then three in Washington to close the season.

That final Nationals series could become particularly interesting.

For now, New York has moved back inside the six.

The net change since our last check is substantial:

Seventh to fifth.
39% to roughly 63%.
Six fewer games for the teams behind them to change it.

As before, I am not rooting for Mets losses. I would much rather see young players perform well and give the organization useful information heading into 2027.

But after the disaster that was most of this season, preserving a premium Draft opportunity is a real asset.

Ten games remain.

And this Race for Six is nowhere close to finished.

Sources: MLB standings and schedules; Tankathon 2027 Draft Lottery estimates. Current analysis assumes the existing Draft lottery and CBT rules remain applicable to the 2027 Draft. The current CBA expires December 1, 2026, so those rules could still change.