Showing posts with label Andrew Brown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Andrew Brown. Show all posts

1/22/14

Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Right Fielders)


     We have clearly improved at the C, SS, and CF positions even though the players are the same and expect the same lackluster production at 1B, and the same solid production at 2B and 3B. As we stated before, LF looks like its a real wild card since we still have no idea who's going to be starting. Lets move on to the last positional spot of RF.

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013
Players: Marlon Byrd, Mike Baxter, Andrew Brown, Juan Lagares, Jordany Valdespin, Matt Den Dekker, Kirk Nieuwenheis, Rick Ankiel
Stats: .250 AVG/.308 OBP/.428 SLG, 23 HR, 92 RBI, 9 SB, 31 2B, 7 3B,  49 BB, 182 K
(18th in MLB OPS)

     Despite many claiming that the Mets could possibly have the worst OF in all of baseball in 2013, RF was surprisely stable considered the players we went into spring training with. This was all thanks to the immortal Marlon Byrd. After serving a suspension for a positive banned substance test, Byrd was left for dead but the team gave him a chance to showcase that he could still be the solidly average player he was for the Cubs and Rangers.
     Byrd rewarding the Mets faith by hitting .285 with 21 HR and 71 RBI while playing slightly above defense. In addition he was traded to the Pittburgh Pirates in August and netted two Top-15 prospects on a 1 1/2 month rental. Sadly though, after Byrd left the RF position tanked offensively with Andrew Brown taking most of the ABs there and dragging the overall RF stats down.

2014
Starter: Curtis Granderson
Steamer Projections: .228 AVG/.320 OBP/.429 SLG, 30 HR, 83 RBI, 14 SB, 78 BB, 192 K

     OK here's another one that I don't agree with STEAMER on but their logic is sound. Despite Granderson having an injury filled 2013 and hitting only .229, his BABIP was still a solid .302. However it's well known that Granderson modified his swing from his Detroit days to make excellent use of the short RF porch in Yankee Stadium. This resulted in much higher K rates and larger power numbers as a Yankee.
     If he returns to his approach used during his Detroit days then its not inconceivable to see him hit the .260 AVG with 23 HR that he regularly topped in his 4 years as a Tiger. While he is a smart player who should be able to easily make this adjustment, if he is unable to, then the increased power and OBP rates at the plate will still be a welcome addition albeit it'll only match the crazy comeback year Byrd produced.
     Just remember though, Granderson's value is more than just the stats he puts up. His power threat is going to make pitchers think twice about putting a runner in front of him so look for Wright to get more pitches to hit and/or the #5 hitter to get more opportunities to hit with Granderson on base.

Verdict: Push with upside if he is able to kick the Yankee habit.

Mack - Okay, I told you under the centerfield post in this series that Juan Lagares was going to tank this year and eventually lose his job to Curtis Granderson. I hope I am wrong, but I need another year to believe in Lagares. I consider 2013 beginners defensive luck.

Still, if I am wrong, Granderson will play right. And, if I am right, Cesar Puello will eventually be promoted and he'll push Granderson over to center.

Either way he will have to work every day to produce the 23 HRs, and 92 RBIs produced at this position last year.

But it's not that simple.  The addition of RP Vic Black must also be remembered here.

No, I like this move and, based on the fact that Marlon Byrd was the star of this team last year, I still project moderate growth at RF.

(Did everything I just say make any sense?)

1/17/14

Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Left Fielders)



     So far we have improvement at the C and SS positions, same lackluster production at 1B, and the same solid production at 2B and 3B. Lets get working on the positions where we've seen the most change, the OF. LF, your first.

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013
Players: Eric Young Jr., Lucas Duda, Andrew Brown, Mike Baxter, Colin Cowgill, Kirk Nieuwenheis, Jordany Valdespin, Justin Turner, Matt Den Dekker
Stats: .243 AVG/.327 OBP/.374 SLG, 14 HR, 51 RBI, 38 SB, 32 2B, 5 3B, 75 BB, 137 K
(22nd in MLB OPS)

     That's a lot of names at one position. LF was a revolving door of mediocrity all season long with Duda manning the spot to start the year until the team procured Eric Young Jr from the Rockies. EYJ provided the team stability at the position both defensively (+3.9 UZR) and from a leadoff position standpoint hitting .306 when leading off an inning. However when Young Jr. WASN'T leading off, he posted a meager .212 AVG

2014
Starter: Chris Young
Steamer Projections: .225 AVG/.311 OBP/.402 SLG, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 16 SB, 77 BB, 170 K, 82 R

OR

Starter: Eric Young Jr.
Steamer Projections: .249 AVG/.317 OBP/.338 SLG, 5 HR, 51 RBI, 46 SB, 59 BB, 123 K, 77 R

     This is probably the one position we currently have zero idea on who will actually be starting. On one hand you have Eric Young who is currently the only guy with the tools to lead off but provides no additional value after that. On the other hand you have Chris Young who provides you power and superb defense but has never hit above .257 in his career and is a K machine. For now I am projecting Chris Young will be the starter based on the comments made that Sandy promised him a certain number of ABs this season. In addition you'll see I've included runs scored. If you combine runs scored and RBIs you get the number of runs each player is a part of. CY is a part of 36 more runs than EYJ which further makes me believe the offense will be better with CY.

Verdict: Extremely volatile Could be anywhere from moderate regression to moderate improvement.

Mack - You're not going to like this...

I don't expect the Mets to show the patience to allow either one of these guys enough time to prove their worth. Call it the Collin Cowgill Syndrome.

I also expect the winner of this battle to be the guy that doesn't land on the DL.

I wish I could believe more in Young. I don't think Sandy Alderson promised him 600 at bats... that was just something Young probably threw out to the press to put some pressure on Alderson. My guess is, if no injury develops, Young will be leading the league in strikeouts by the all-star break and could have little trade value at mid-season.

I hope I'm wrong here, but I see no volatility here... just two levels of meh.

1/3/13

Andrew Brown, Jim Callis, Michael Fulmer, Randy Fontanez, Mets OF




Jim Callis‏ - @jimcallisBA -

Very thin before trade. @wexlerrules: I'm surprised @jimcallisBA ranks the Mets system so poorly post-Dickey trade

                 All at lowest levels, though. @mania715: lotta pitching depth pre-trade

I do like him. Also recognize it's a long way from low A to majors for a pitcher. @thatkicker: are you a Michael Fulmer believer?


RP Randy Fontanez - Indios de Mayaguez – PRWL Playoffs – 0.1-IP, 0-H, 1-SV, 0.00



Dirty got an exclusive scouting report from ‘Purple Row’ a prominent Colorado blogger about OF Andrew Brown:

“At 28, Brown looks like a prototypical AAAA player. Although he showed flashes of power at the big league level last season, slugging .429 while hitting five home runs in limited time with the Rockies, Brown doesn’t appear to have the patience or pitch recognition skills necessary to consistently produce at the highest level. In addition, Brown provides little to no defensive value. Brown has spent the last two years tearing up the Pacific Coast League, and that won’t change in 2013 if he ends up in Triple-A with the Mets moving to Las Vegas. The Mets and their fans should take extreme caution if Brown gets off to a torrid start, as things likely wouldn’t translate well from Las Vegas to Citi Field in Queens.”
               
Great. Sounds like a ‘mile high’  Val Pascucci. I guess this is what you get when you bottom fish and, right now, the more bodies the better. Let’s see, where do we stand for camp:  Righties:  Brown and Collin Cowgill. Lefties: Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Jordany Valdespin, Mike Baxter, Lucas Duda. Also on the 40-man are Cesar Puello and Juan Lagares who are not ready.

                Right now, my guess is:
                                RF           -              Lucas Duda
                                CF           -              Kirk Nieuwenhuis
                                LF            -              Mike Baxter/Collin Cowgill
                                UT          -              Jordany Valdespin

                But…  I expect much more to happen to the 40-man before opening day.


Giancarlo Stanton, Michael Bourne, Andrew Brown, Off-Season Moves




Gary Seagren asked - Hi Mack and Happy New Year, Just a couple of thoughts because it’s been so slow on Met news since the Blue Jay trade. In regards to the Giancarlo Stanton trade possibilities would you give up Wheeler or D'Arnaud in the deal?

                Mack – Happy New Year to you and your family too, Gary. The only New York Met I would not trade for Stanton would be David Wright. Stanton is better than any other Mets that has played more than a few games in Queens, and you simply never bet on a prospect, no matter how good he looks. That being said, I would offer Zack Wheeler before I would offer Matt Harvey because Harvey has already showed a little at the major league level. I think Wheeler will be a better pitcher than Harvey, but it’s all speculation at this point.

Also do you think with the current market for Michael Bourn. Scott Boras would take a one year deal ( I hear you laughing already) and Sandy pick him up? Hey I said it was really slow news month. Thanks, Gary.

                Sandy Alderson does not want to sign anyone that will cost him a first round draft pick in a very limited draft, talent wise. Bourn will find a home but it will not be the Mets.




The signing of OF Andrew Brown was interesting. The press release said that the Mets and Brown had “come to terms”. Yeah, I guess that’s what “pleeeeeeese sign me” comes to these days.


Brown had an impressive AAA year for Colorado (yes, that’s where that lack of air is), but let’s look at the last three in a row:

        2010:     AA-Texas - Spingfield .291/.371/.526/.897 – 22-HR, 63-RBI, 361-AB, 98-K, 41-BB
        2011:    AAA-Memphis -          .284/.382/.501/.883 – 20-HR, 73-RBI, 359-AB, 105-K, 56-BB
        2012:   AAA-Colo Springs -     .308/.364/.597/.961 – 24-HR, 98-RBI, 390-AB, 100-K, 37-BB

Did you notice the limited amount of at-bats?

Brown was used as a platoon player and has a career .321/.414/.612 stat line against left-handers in the upper minors.

As I have said in other posts, you can’t sign enough of these guys to invites.



Chris asked:  Mack, are you as unhappy and frustrated as I am about the lack of moves this off-season?

                Mack: You know Chris, it’s funny that you should ask that.

                So far this off season, the Mets signed one of the largest free agent deals for one of the best players in baseball (David Wright) and completed a blockbuster trade that solidified the catching position for years and brought aboard a third potential SP 1-2 candidate in 2015, for a 38-year old pitcher.

                The team has a way to go, but so far, it’s been a great off-season.

3/10/12

Draft Friday Game Notes


·      
·         I first started following Louisville (10-3) RP Derek Self last season and had him being picked on the second day of the draft.  He decided to come back for his senior year which right now looks like a great decision. Derek threw 1.1 scoreless innings in the Cardinals’ 7-3 win against Oral Roberts. By my count, that’s 10.1-IP for the season with a 0.00 ERA.

“So far, the season is going great. I couldn’t really ask for much more. I've been in the role of the late inning trouble situation to closer role. I've been relying on my defense a lot throughout the season as I produce ground balls and pop ups when I’m not getting strikeouts. I just really try to focus to throw down as much as I can and really mixing my pitches up well giving a lot of credit to my pitching coach of calling the pitches. Just like in today’s game along with all the other games I have pitched in, my cutter and slider has been really effective for me to set the hitters up with my fastball. Coming into today’s game with a guy on in the 8th, I got out of it to help us keep the lead. Going back out for the ninth, I stayed with the same approach, mixing my off speed pitches well in the counts. Oral Roberts is a very aggressive team so I just stayed low and got outs. “ 

Right now, I have him ranked as one of the top three closers in the draft, along with Michael Roth (who is starting this season) and Austin Maddox.

·         Akron (2-8) senior RHP Andrew Brown decided to win one for the team, throwing 7.0 scoreless innongs (6-K, 0-BB) in Zips’ 4-0 win over Xavier.
Brown talked to me after the game and was very excited about his outing:

“I knew coming into this morning's game against Xavier that i would have to be on my game as they have had some success against some top teams this spring already. I had an aggressive mindset where I wanted to attack the zone early and finishing hitters off with fastballs and sliders. I was very confident with my slider and curve today and threw them well to start hitters off as well put them away.  Our offense was very clutch coming through with a run in the 3rd and not letting up throughout the game making sure we didn't let them get back into the game. 

 “We have had a rough start to the season in regards to wins and losses but honestly we have played some great competition and I feel that has prepared us well for this week in Florida as well as the upcoming conference season.  Our offense is beginning to put together back to back hits and our staff is coming together to put zeros on the board with no walks.”


·         It’s easy to forget about some of the prospects when they are playing for teams below the top 30. I checked up on a few lately:

o   Stony Brook CF Travis Jankowski went 1-5 against Kansas and is now hitting .333 as their leadoff hitter.
o   Georgia Southern’s RHP Chris Beck seems to be missing teammate Victor Roach: 1-1, 4.73, 18K/19.1IP
o   Jacksonville OF Adam Brett-Walker - .244/.407/.439
o   Oklahoma State’s Andrew Heaney – 2-1, 1.71, 31-K, 21.0-IP


·         Stat Lines:
o   Vanderbilt (5-8) Kevin Ziomek – 8.0-IP, 3-H, 0-R, 8-K, 1-BB - last three starts: 20.0-IP, 11-H, 3-ER, 23-K, 3-BB
o   Clemson RHP Kevin Brady – 5.1-IP, 6-H, 4-ER, 6-K, 0-BB
o   NC LHP Kent Emanuel  7.0-IP, 1-ER, 7-K, 0-BB
o   GT RHP Buck Farmer – 6.0-IP, 1-ER, 6-K, 3-BB

·         Speed Checks:

o   Christian H.S. (CA)  Cody Poteet – 90-93
o   Holy Trinity  H.S. (NY) RHP Anthony Rosati – 92, 82 slider
o   USF Anthony Barbosa – 92-93
o   USF Kyle Zimmer – 96-97
    Michael Wacha - 91-94, 84-85 slider, 81-83 change
o   Harvard-Westlake H.S. LHP Max Fried – 90-92, 75-77 curve, 78-80 change
o   GSU Chris Beck -  91-93, 81-82 change, 85 slider