Position Battles Worth Watching- Week 1

With a week's worth of Grapefruit League games now complete; lets take a look at the status of the positional battles in camp.

Backup Catcher

So far, Recker has done nothing wrong to warrant losing his spot on the 25 man roster. In 5 games he is hitting .375 with a HR and 2 RBI's against Teagarden's .273 AVG with 4 K's. Recker also has the advantage of already knowing the sequences that the rotation likes to use in games having been the back-up all of last year. In the later innings, Centeno has also seen some work and is hitting .400 with no extra base hits but he's walking in as a long-shot to begin with as it is expecting he will start 2014 in AAA.

First Base Starter

This battle has barely gotten off the ground as both guys have been sidelined with injuries so far early in camp. Davis has only 3 games under his belt and has hit a HR in 1 AB and struck out in practically all the rest of them. His swing still looks ugly as his hands continue to drop. We may be counting the days till he is cut from the team. Duda on the other hand looked fantastic in his 2 games launching a long HR and rocket for a 2B. Striking out 33% less than your competitor generally helps too.

Left Field Starter

Through 1 week so far and we have ourselves a dead heat for LF. While Chris Young hasn't done anything wrong in the field, his .211 AVG with only 1 extra base hit in 7 games leaves much to be desired. Meanwhile, EYJ missed 3 games with an early camp injury and its affected him early on. While he is hitting .273 in the 4 games he's played, he's generally been facing lower level talent (AA and AAA). He's also committed 2 blunders in the field that have cost the team some runs and was even caught stealing. This battle is going to come down all the way to the last AB of Spring.

Center Field Starter

So far this spring, Lagares has done everything right in order to break camp as the starting CF. He's hitting .353 through 6 games and has already made 3 fantastic plays in CF including an OF assist. I'm sure the club doesn't like the 5 K's but the SB is a welcome site. Meanwhile Chris Young has his hands full just competing with Eric Young Jr. that so far he hasn't challenged Lagares so far in camp. Adding Drew at SS or anybody who can lead off would help Lagares' cause substantially as it would put a major dent in Eric Young's chances.

#5 Starter

Some interesting developments have occurred this week in terms of this position battle. What used to be a 3 person race between Matsuzaka, Lannan, and Mejia seems to have turned in a 2 man race due to serious shortfalls by Josh Edgin. So far Mejia and Matsuzaka seem to be on even footing. Even though Daisuke has the backing of Terry Collins, he's given up 8 hits in only 4 Innings Pitched and has struck out 3. Mejia on the other hand has those 3 K's in only 2 IP and has only allowed 1 hit. However he's also surrendered 2 BB's vs Daisuke's 0 BB. If Mejia can put together a 3 IP start with better control in his next start that will give him a much needed boost.

2nd Lefty in the Pen

The tide has really turned on Edgin so far in camp. In 3 IP so far he's given up 6 runs on 8 hits with only 1 K against mostly AA/AAA hitters. Not good at all. Meanwhile, Lannan has been almost exclusively facing MLB hitters and has only given up 2 runs thanks to an error while giving up 4 hits and K'ing 4 in 4 IP. While Lannan has certainly pitched well enough for considering in the #5 Starter battle he finds himself here because of just how bad Edgin has been.

Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Center Fielders)

     We have clearly improved at the C and SS positions and expect the same lackluster production at 1B, and the same solid production at 2B and 3B. However LF looks like its a real wild card since we have no idea who's going to be starting. Lets take a look at CF.

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013

Players: Juan Lagares, Kirk Nieuwenheis, Rick Ankiel, Matt Den Dekker, Colin Cowgill, Jordany Valdespin, Eric Young Jr., Marlon Byrd
Stats: .222 AVG/.267 OBP/.348 SLG, 13 HR, 66 RBI, 12 SB, 29 2B, 6 3B, 35 BB, 165 K
(29th in MLB OPS)

     Just like with the LF position, a lot of guys played CF for the club last season. As bad as LF was until Eric Young Jr stabilized the position, CF was even worse. I bet fans don't remember that we actually opened up the season with Colin Cowgill as the starter. After he flopped we even gave Rick Ankiel a try until Terry Collins made Juan Lagares the primary starter in mid-May after he hit a ridiculous .346 in AAA Las Vegas.
     Lagares started slow batting only .171 in May but turned it on in the early summer months batting .271 in June and .353 in July before cooling back off as the season neared its end. In addition Lagares was flat out magical in CF posting a +21.5 UZR in CF which was 2nd in the MLB behind only Carlos Gomez who played 420 more innings. Extrapolated out to a 150 game season, Lagares would have posted a +33.1 UZR.
     Just to show you how amazing that would be, Since UZR became readily used in 2002 only 3 players have ever topped a +30 UZR. Alfonso Soriano as a LF in 2007 (+32.0), Franklin Gutierrez as a CF in 2009 (+31.0), and Manny Machado last season as a 3B (+31.2)

2014

Starter: Juan Lagares

Steamer Projections: .254 AVG/.295 OBP/.365 SLG, 9 HR, 61 RBI, 14 SB, 33 BB, 121 K

     Look....I've heard all the talk about keeping EYJ in LF and starting Chris Young in CF, but I just do not see how you can take out quite possibly the best defensive CF in baseball and send him back to AAA especially when he has already hit for an AVG over .338 in A+, AA, and AAA. There has NEVER been a question about this kid's bat and I believe he's in line for a strong sophomore season despite what STEAMER is predicting. I think he hits .280 with a .334 OBP and 20 SB.

Verdict: Moderate to Massive improvement.

Bonus! Here's some supporting footage if you've forgotten how good he is defensively.








Mack - I have no idea who I going to be the 2014 centerfielder but, if it is Lagares, I can't see him possibly duplicating his defensive numbers. I've always loved his game, but 2013 was a dream season in the field for him.

Bat wise, I also don't think he will fair well. Yes, he hit well in winter ball this off season but that's like a choose up game on the corner against girls.

So, if Lagares is the centerfielder, I see regression... which will eventually result in the loss of his job to Curtis Granderson (when Cesar Puello comes up).

Again... just my opinion.

Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Left Fielders)

     So far we have improvement at the C and SS positions, same lackluster production at 1B, and the same solid production at 2B and 3B. Lets get working on the positions where we've seen the most change, the OF. LF, your first.

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013

Players: Eric Young Jr., Lucas Duda, Andrew Brown, Mike Baxter, Colin Cowgill, Kirk Nieuwenheis, Jordany Valdespin, Justin Turner, Matt Den Dekker
Stats: .243 AVG/.327 OBP/.374 SLG, 14 HR, 51 RBI, 38 SB, 32 2B, 5 3B, 75 BB, 137 K
(22nd in MLB OPS)

     That's a lot of names at one position. LF was a revolving door of mediocrity all season long with Duda manning the spot to start the year until the team procured Eric Young Jr from the Rockies. EYJ provided the team stability at the position both defensively (+3.9 UZR) and from a leadoff position standpoint hitting .306 when leading off an inning. However when Young Jr. WASN'T leading off, he posted a meager .212 AVG

2014

Starter: Chris Young

Steamer Projections: .225 AVG/.311 OBP/.402 SLG, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 16 SB, 77 BB, 170 K, 82 R

OR

Starter: Eric Young Jr.

Steamer Projections: .249 AVG/.317 OBP/.338 SLG, 5 HR, 51 RBI, 46 SB, 59 BB, 123 K, 77 R

     This is probably the one position we currently have zero idea on who will actually be starting. On one hand you have Eric Young who is currently the only guy with the tools to lead off but provides no additional value after that. On the other hand you have Chris Young who provides you power and superb defense but has never hit above .257 in his career and is a K machine. For now I am projecting Chris Young will be the starter based on the comments made that Sandy promised him a certain number of ABs this season. In addition you'll see I've included runs scored. If you combine runs scored and RBIs you get the number of runs each player is a part of. CY is a part of 36 more runs than EYJ which further makes me believe the offense will be better with CY.

Verdict: Extremely volatile Could be anywhere from moderate regression to moderate improvement.

Mack - You're not going to like this...

I don't expect the Mets to show the patience to allow either one of these guys enough time to prove their worth. Call it the Collin Cowgill Syndrome.

I also expect the winner of this battle to be the guy that doesn't land on the DL.

I wish I could believe more in Young. I don't think Sandy Alderson promised him 600 at bats... that was just something Young probably threw out to the press to put some pressure on Alderson. My guess is, if no injury develops, Young will be leading the league in strikeouts by the all-star break and could have little trade value at mid-season.

I hope I'm wrong here, but I see no volatility here... just two levels of meh.

The Volatile Asset that is Chris Young.

     This off-season Sandy Alderson signed CF Chris Young to a 1 yr contract worth $7.25M burning approximately 22.5% of his off-season budget in the process. Before reaching the majors Young was a Baseball America Top 25 prospect in 2005 and a Top 15 prospect in 2006 in the Chicago White Sox minor league system. Young was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2006 in exchange for Javier Vasquez in a deal that was widely regarded as a steal for the Diamondbacks.

     In his official rookie season in 2007, Young powered the Diamondbacks all the way to the NLCS batting .237 with 32 HR and 27 SB and finishing 4th in the Rookie of the Year voting behind Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, and Hunter Pence. His 2008 saw him improve his AVG and OBP numbers while sacrificing his power but he still managed to finish amongst the Top 10 of power hitting Center-fielders. From his debut to today, Chris Young ranks 6th amongst CF in HRs. The only guys ahead of him are Curtis Granderson, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Beltran, Torii Hunter, and Matt Kemp, a very prestigious group of players.

     For the New York Mets, signing Young establishes a dilemma over which Young to start. The powerful Chris Young or the speedster and incumbent LF Eric Young. Based on last season, "EYJ" led the National League in SBs, was the team's leadoff batter, and improved the offense upon his arrival in NY while "CY" hit a career low .200 with a career low 12 HR and uncharacteristically below average defense in all 3 OF positions. Despite the stark 2013 contributions differences, EYJ worth only +0.8 Wins above the replacement level LF while CY was worth +0.5 WAR. 

     How can this be? Well its simple really, the LF position is generally one that provides power over speed and defense since LF is considered an easier position to play. As a result calculations reduce the defensive value of a LF by -7.5 basis points to start the season. In Eric Young's case, his fielding abilities are not good enough to overcome to reduction while Chris Young, who is widely regarded as a top defensive OF, can cover this with ease. More importantly, Chris Young's expected power and speed numbers fall within or above the mean for an average LF while for Eric Young his power falls below the mean and his speed above the mean.

     The information above shows why Eric Young Jr. will never be anything more than a below average LF as his skill set is more tuned for the CF or 2B positions. However his skill set is also more consistent year over year as he has been worth anywhere from -0.8 to +1.7 WAR. Chris Young on the other hand is FAR more volatile. Depending on the batting average he post in a particular year he could be worth +0.5 WAR or as high as 5.5 WAR which is considered an All-Star caliber season.

    If you have been able to follow me through this whole analysis then awesome. But by no means should this evidence be used to suggest that Chris Young be the starter over Eric Young. The only purpose of this is to show that as bad as Chris Young was in 2013, he could also be a massive improvement for the club in 2014. The difference between a career .235 hitter and a career .258 hitter is only 13 base hits and last season EYJ scored 28% of time he was on base so those 13 extra hits resulted in 3-4 more runs. This contribution is far less significant then the difference between a 3 HR per yr hitter and a 24 HR per yr hitter which converts into runs 100% of time and sometimes results in multiple runs. If we assume that all those extra HR were of the solo variety, CY provides 21 additional runs of offense via the longball over EYJ.

So who do you pick folks? Chris Young or Eric Young?

The LTJ Editorial: "What Chris Young brings to the Mets"

The LTJ Editorial
Author: Luis Tirado Jr.
Date: 11-26-13
Twitter: @LTJ81
Website: http://www.TheNYExpress.com

"What Chris Young brings to the Mets"

As I'm sure you've already heard, free agent Center Fielder Chris Young has agreed on a one-year deal with the New York Mets for about $7.25 million. Last season, every baseball analyst figured the Mets outfield would be one of the worst in MLB but they surprised everyone, they exceeded expectations. With solid hitting from Marlon Byrd, the highlight creating defensive machine of Juan Lagares, and the speedy base-stealing of Eric Young Jr., it was entertaining to watch. Once Byrd was traded though, the trio was missing that offensive punch that Byrd provided so nicely. One of the needs the Mets needed to fill this offseason was to try to find a solid free agent to fill the void Byrd left. They hope they started to fill that void with their latest acquisition. Let's take a look at the pros and cons Young will bring to the table once he puts on his first ever Mets uniform.

Overall, Young's career hitting average is at a low .235 and he is known for striking out.... a lot. It's more of the fact that he swings at pitches he really shouldn't swing at but I'm sure with patience and coaching he will fit in just fine with the Mets. Despite this, remember, he brings something that the Mets have been lacking, power hitting. I've seen plenty of highlights of the time he spent with the Oakland Athletics and boy, does he hit with such raw power. It'll be great to see the damage he is going to cause in Citi Field. The Mets need it because their home winning record last season was absolutely horrible. They looked anemic at home and didn't hit that many homeruns. Perhaps Young will fix that with hitting balls out the ballpark so much that maybe the fan attendance will improve too.

I'm sure most of you diehard baseball fans out there enjoy a great baseball move, right? I'm sure you have seen or at least heard of the movie "Moneyball" right? Well, a part of me loves the theory crafting of the fact that if you have players that can get on base, you are statistically proven to have a better chance to win. Some agree, some disagree, all I know is, the Mets need to score more runs than they did last year. Another good attribute that Young brings is that he has a very good walk rate which is one of the aspects to Moneyball. Over the past few seasons of his career, a few times he was among the top 20% of all MLB hitters to walk in at-bats, pretty impressive if you ask me. So even though he strikes out a lot, he kind of makes up for it by at least getting walks to get the ball rolling on scoring runs. He is also very good at stealing bases, with over 120 in his career. So now if you have a threat to steal bases with someone who is very good at getting on base from walks, better scoring games are ahead of us!

Now the best part about Young is his defense in the outfield. It's probably one of the big reasons why they brought him in. In his career, Young has been ranked one of the best Center Fielders in Defensive Runs Saved. He has a keen eye when fielding and a decent arm to prevent bases and runs from the opposition. He is a quick decision maker and makes the right call most of the time. I don't really see the Mets moving him to the corners of the outfield since his most experience comes from center field. It would make sense to keep him there, keep Eric Young Jr. at left field, and move Juan Lagares to right field. Of course I still think the Mets should add one more free agent outfielder to the mix for depth and insurance in case of any unforeseen injuries.

Overall I like this signing as it's going in the right direction. I've always said that the Mets are really just a few missing pieces away from having a contending team. Realistically I think this signing is one of many more to come but I don't see them bringing any crazy big free agent to the team for insane amounts of money. I think they will sign a handful and bring in low-key players who will contribute and be productive. I'm sure they are doing all their research and doing their best to do what's right for this team. They have a long way to go to reach that goal but I'm patient, after all, it's still quite some time before Spring Training opens up again. Still have lots of free agents up for grabs and mark my words, the Mets are planning something big via trade. I sense it!

What do you think? Please leave your comments below and let's get some intelligent sports discussions brewing!

Hot Stove Report: THEY LIKE IKE!, Byrdman goes to Philly, Interest in Chris Young

The Philadelphia Phillies have signed OF Marlon Byrd to a 2 yr contract for $16M (AAV: $8M). Included within the contract is a vesting option for 2016 for $8M. If Byrd reaches 600 plate appearances in 2015 or 1,100 plate appearance combined during the life of his contract, the option will vest. If not, it then becomes a club option for the Phillies. There is no buyout known at this time.

(Good for him...He bounced back nicely after being suspended for PEDs in 2012 and deserved to get a nice pay raise. That said, while the $8M per season isn't too cumbersome, that 3rd year is. Everyday starters generally have 625+ PA per season and Byrd currently slots in as one of those starters.  Marlon will be playing next season at age 36 and early Steamer projections only anticipate him hitting .256 with 12 HR and 51 RBI as they expect his Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) and Isolated Power (ISO) to normalize back to career norms. )

According to John Heyman of CBS Sports, a bevy of teams have inquired on what the Mets want for 1B Ike Davis. He specifically list the Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, and the Colorado Rockies as confirmed suitors. Teams seem to view Davis as another potential Chris Davis change of scenery scenario.

(Sandy Alderson has to be salivating over the large number of teams that want Davis. Expect this to drag out for some time as Sandy goes back and forth from team to team trying to get more and more out of this deal. We may end up with a good OF'er or a MLB ready OF prospect when it's all said and done.)

Lastly, according to Marc Craig, via Twitter, the Mets are interested in CF Chris Young. Young played in Oakland last year and hit a measly .200 with a .280 OBP and 12 home runs.

(Meh...Am I missing something here? Young probably is no better than a AAAA OF  at this point in his career. If he can be had for a minor league deal then sure but we shouldn't sign him to be on our MLB squad. One could argue that he provides excellent defensive value but we already have a power hitting top notch defensive OF'er on our bench in Matt den Dekker.)

Mack Stuff – Pedro Beato, Randy Fontanez, Brandon Nimmo, Bobby Parnell, Chris Young

Red Sox Designate Pedro Beato For Assignment

LF Jordany Valdespin -  0-2, .278

LF Cesar Puello  -  0-0, .185 – getting minimal winter play with this team

C Francisco Pena  -  1-4, 1-R, 2B, .260

LF Juan Lagares  -  0-2, 1-R, 2-BB, .314

RP Gonzalez Germen  -  0.1-IP, 0-R, 1-K, 6.23

RP Randy Fontanez  -  5.1-IP, 0-R, 6-K, 0-BB, 2.89

                This was a very nice outing for Fontanez and easily was the longest he pitched in any outing including the entire 2012 season for Savannah (28-G, 60.2-IP) and St. Lucie (1-G, 3-IP). For now, he’s pitched in 10 winter games, with 19-K in 18.2-IP. Only 2-BB and a 2.89-ERA. Is he being stretched out? And why, since there’s no place to slot him?  As I have written before, I’m not sure if the Mets have any control over their players and how they are used in winter games. It’s my understanding from two of the Mets players that they cut their own deals with teams in the VWL and PRWL. If that’s true, you sure as hell have to play where that team tells you to play. St. Lucie already has on the board Michael Fulmer, Noah Syndergaard, Luis Mateo, Domingo Tapia, Jake deGrom, Alex Panteliodes, Jim Fuller, and Tyler Pill… and that’s if Rafael Montero bumps to Binghamton.

C   Juan Centeno  -  0-3, 1-BB, .306

SP Mark Cohoon  -  0.1-IP, 1-K, 4.01  -  ???  Started and pitched to only one batter, who he struck out.

photo by Christopher Gregory

The Mets also have some intriguing hitters. Brandon Nimmo is a bit of a head-scratcher. He has a passive approach and trouble with breaking pitches but does project to have plus power. Brooklyn was an aggressive assignment for him given his background as a raw and inexperienced ballplayer. 2012 looks good on paper due to his massive walk rate, but I don’t see a mid-teens walk rate continuing against good pitching. With more experience he should improve against breaking balls and his contact rate should increase. Another worry that he’ll have to move to a corner.. BB

Sources suggest the Dodgers are considering a variety of relievers, and could also make a play for either Indians closer Chris Perez or Mets reliever Bobby Parnell instead.

                -Yeah, I know… the last thing the Mets need is less relief pitching, but let’s put that aside for a second and see if there is an outfield alternative here.

                As of today, the Dodgers have under contract:

                                LF – Carl Crawford - $142mil thru 2017

                                CF – Matt Kemp - $160mil thru 2018

                                RF – Andre Ethier - $85mil thru 2017

                In addition, they have Jerry Hairston (also plays 2B) for $3.7mil in 2013, prospect Yasiel Puig $42mil thru 2017), and prospects Alex Castellanos and Scott Van Slyke.

                Puig is a Cuban defector who had only 82-AB last year combined for the Dodgers rookie/A+ team. The 21-yr. old’s stat line: .354/.442/.634//1076, 5-HR. Earliest ETA would be 2014.

                Castellanos is right up Alderson’s alley. Hit .328/.420/.590/1010, 17-HR, 52-RBI in AAA last year. And, he’s a righty.

                Castellanos for Parnell. Oh yeah… fuck relief.

According to a team insider, the Mets are still considering whether to re-sign free-agent RHP Chris Young, Andy Martino reports in the Daily News.

                I mentioned him a couple of times as an option for the first half of 2013. He’s Mets friendly and knows his way around the clubhouse. He also averaged close to six innings per start in the 20 times he took the mound. Young has very strong ties to the Mets brass and finished last season going 1-2, 2.73 in the month of September. I’m not sure we all saw the best of Young last season. He seemed to get stronger as the season went on, which is normal for pitchers coming off TJS. 

We could do worse.

I May Be Wrong, But… Frank Francisco, Chris Young, Johan Santana, Vinnie Rottino

I May Be Wrong, But… Frank Francisco, Chris Young, Johan Santana, Vinnie Rottino 

 • I’m just not sold yet on Frank Francisco. He looks a lot like K-Rod on the mound, but the ball just doesn’t get to the plate as fast. He admits that he’s currently not 100%, but who says they are at this point in the pre-season? He told a New Jersey newspaper that he likes when the opponents have a big inning because that means he will be coming in. First, that’s bullshit. Closers come in when opponents don’t catch up and you have the lead. They also come in mostly when an inning begins. Someone needs to sit Frank2 down and explain what his job is.

 • I’m thrilled that reports say that Young may sign with the Mets sometime next week. I assume it is a minor league deal that would allow him to attend camp in April and rehab in May. This could be the replacement for Mike Pelfrey come June. Monday’s Matt Harvey outing has slowed down the chants of his arrival, and Miguel Batista and Chris Schwinden could hold down the fort in April. Young also brings an immediate upgrade in your rotation and sets up a 2013 opening day rotation of Johan Santana, Jon Niese, Young, Harvey, and Jeurys Familia. Sweet.

 • I never thought the world would ever see Johan Santana throw a baseball 86 times on the same day. That alone is a victory, but his rebounding from a bad start was old-Johan. I don’t know what Coach Dan said to him when he came to the mound, but it sure worked. Big, big news. Much bigger than the return of David Wright.

 • Vinnie Rottino had two more hits on Monday. This is my kind of utility player. He can play either corner outfield position, third, first, and he can catch.

Mack Ade - Rhiner Cruz, Omar Quintanilla, Kevin Mulvey, Chris Young

    ·         Recent Rule 5 loss, RP Rhiner Cruz, pitched his first ST outing the other day… 2-BB, 2-H, 4-ER… and 0.0-IP. Ouch. Please don’t send him back. There’s enough pitchers in the system right now.

·         The Mets brass seem very happy with the signing of SS Omar Qunitanilla. It will give the Mets the option of letting Reese Havens play 2B for the B-Mets, while Jordany Valdespin gets a full season in Buffalo at second.

    ·       You see, you just never can figure out why the Mets do what they do in the spring. You have Dylan Owen,Collin McHugh, Chris Schwinden, Miguel Batista, Mark Cohoon, and Jeremy Hefner battling it out for the five starter slots in Buffalo, you still haven’t made a decision on Tobi Stoner, Eric Niesen or Eric Beaulac, and then you go out and sign Kevin Mulvey. WTF?

   

     ·         There are multiple reports that pitcher Chris Young might be returning to the Mets this season. Young was going strong last year before being lost for the season. Most of you probably believe that the addition of Young would create a demotion of Dillon Gee back to the minors; however, don’t be surprised if a move like this could create the release of Mike Pelfrey. March is famous for big releases (Oliver Perez) and Gee offers the Mets more predictably sanity at this point.

Mets – Cesar Puello, Cory Vaughn, Chris Young, Jeremy Hefner

1-3-12 - mets360.  - 7. Cesar Puello, OF, Hi-A, .259/.313/.397 in 488 PA - Last year Puello was ranked fourth on this list due to glowing scouting reports combined with a borderline acceptable walk rate. The scouting reports are still positive, but he posted a dismal 3.8 BB% last season. The only reason his OBP cracked .300 last year was due to being hit by 20 pitches. Puello has made steady progress through the farm system but he could benefit from starting 2012 back in St. Lucie. Last year he had a .670 OPS in road games, 78 points lower than his home mark

Joe D's place   - 32. Cory Vaughn (OF) The 23 year-old Vaughn, who was taken in the 4th round of the 2010 draft out of San Diego State, had his short minor league career hit a wall right in the middle of the 2011 season. I don’t know what could make the Mets do something so stupid as to take a guy who was having a very good year at Savannah, and yank him out of the league rather abruptly at mid-season, to promote him to the Florida State League. Why? Who knows? But it definitely did not have the desired effect as Vaughn’s season fell completely apart. In the first half at Savannah, Vaughn hit .286 in 245 AB’s, while in 210 AB’s at St. Lucie he hit .219. You can say it’s the minors and it doesn’t matter but it couldn’t have done any good for the man’s confidence. And was the second half slump due to injury, or fatigue? Or is it a matter of Vaughn being unable to hit advanced breaking pitches? Now Vaughn finds himself between a rock and a hard place because he is mired in high A ball after having played a brutally bad half-season there. What’s more, there are some very talented outfielders coming up through the system behind him, and the prospects of the big jump to AA, loom ahead. The next year will go a long way to seeing whether Vaughn moves up this list, or drops off it altogether.

In four starts last season, Chris Young totaled 24 innings, allowing five earned runs on 12 hits and 11 walks while striking out 22.  His final outing of the year came against the Phillies, where the tall righty tossed seven scoreless innings, surrendering two hits and three walks while punching out seven.  The sample size is too small to form an accurate prediction of how young would pitch in 2012, but it does serve as a reminder of the type of pitcher Young used to be when healthy. Over his career, Young is the owner of a 3.74 ERA (4.66 xFIP), 1.202 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 2.21 K/BB.  He is traditionally a fly ball pitcher, recording just 28.2% of outs on the ground.  Given this fact and a career BABIP of .248, it’s possible that Young has simply benefited from playing the bulk of his career at pitcher friendly Petco Park in San Diego.  This is somewhat the case. http://risingapple.com/2012/01/06/should-the-mets-re-sign-chris-young/

Jeremy Hefner:  Claimed off waivers by the Mets on December 12th, Hefner is coming off his fifth minor league season with the San Diego Padres since being drafted in the fifth round of the 2007 entry draft.  He features three pitches, including an 88-91 mph fastball, a sweeping slider and a heavy change up that he uses more effectively against left-handed hitters.  Though not overpowering, Hefner is described as a cerebral competitor who has a heightened concept of how to get hitters out.  Having pitched nearly 700 innings through every level minor league baseball has to offer, Hefner averages nearly eight strikeouts per nine innings and is not particularly susceptible to the long ball. http://www.metsfever.com/2012/01/what-options-do-mets-have-if-johan.html

Filling Out The Ranks From Here

25-Man Roster

Lineup: 8
1. Coco Crisp, CF (S)
2. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Jason Bay, LF (R)
6. Lucas Duda, RF (L)
7. Josh Thole, C (L)
8. Ruben Tejada, SS (R)

Bench: 5
C: Mike Nickeas, C (R) [Ivan Rodriguez, C (R)]
IF: Justin Turner, 2B/SS/3B (R)
IF: Josh Satin, 2B/3B/1B (R)
OF: Andres Torres, OF (S)
OF: Fernando Martinez, LF/RF (L)

Rotation: 5
1. Johan Santana, SP (L)
2. Jon Niese, SP (L) [Javier Vazquez, SP (R)]
3. R.A. Dickey, SP (R)
4. Mike Pelfrey, SP (R)
5. Dillon Gee, SP (R) [Chris Young, SP (R)]

Bullpen: 7
CL: Frank Francisco, RP (R)
SU: John Rauch, RP (R)
SU: Ramon Ramirez, RP (R)
MR: Bobby Parnell, RP (R)
MR: Pedro Beato, RP (R) / Daniel Herrera, RP (L)
LOOGY: Tim Byrdak, RP (L)
LR: D.J. Carrasco / Manny Acosta, RP (R)

If I'm looking at this correctly... the Mets would only "NEED" a leadoff hitter who can play CF. The thing to remember is, there are differences between completing a roster and filling out the team. FRANKLY... part of filling out the team SHOULD be trimming some of the bullpen because A) We need another lefty in there and B) We need D.J. Carrasco out. It also wouldn't hurt to have a better righty option for backup catcher and perhaps a starter in the event we move Pelfrey or Niese.

Center Field:
There are actually a couple of pretty solid names in free agency to fill the Met need for an everyday CF and leadoff hitter. While if it were 100% up to me... I'd be going after 26 year old Cuban defector Yeonis Cespedes, I think there are two fairly realistic options.

Coco Crisp (32) - Coco is coming off a pair of productive years in Oakland where he's produced good speed numbers and reasonably good On-Base numbers. He made $5.75 Mil in 2011 and should be earning somewhere in that ballpark in 2012. I think the Mets could handle that, though they'd want to control his years to keep him down to 1-2 at the most.

Corey Patterson (32) - Corey will cost around $1 Mil and would probably sign a 1-year deal. I have WAY more faith in Coco Crisp being a solid everyday contributor, but if we are looking for an affordable stop-gap... he's our man. To top that off, Corey's numbers in 2010 are strikingly similar to Coco's and that could translate into Corey being a relative bargain.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis (25) - Captain Kirk is a solid option to replace Pagan as the everyday CF... for now. He's gritty, has improved steadily through the minors and has a mix of power and speed. The questions remain as to whether there is enough range to stick in CF. He makes great plays but what I have heard is that those plays are great only because he was too slow for them to be easy.

Matt Den Dekker (25) - Defense is not a problem for Den Dekker. He's probably the best defensive OF the Mets have in the farm system and I'm probably going to be one of the only people who thinks he can start the season in Flushing. His issue is that he's NOT a leadoff hitter. He'd be an asset at 6th, 7th or 8th (9th if we're being sneaky) but he's not an OBP oriented hitter.

My Plan?: I'd sign Coco Crisp as he's a good candidate to lead off in 2012. He'll cost somewhere in the realm of $5-7 Mil but I honsestly think his 2010-11 output would be well worth that figure. This semi-blocks Nieuwenhuis and Den Dekker, but I see Kirk as more of a replacement for Bay in the short-term anyway.

Catcher:
The story of Mike Nickeas is a good one. A player ready to pack it in and give up on his dream finally getting his shot and looking pretty decent. Sadly... I'm not satisfied with pretty decent when I need my catcher to hit. The loss of Reyes means the Mets cannot afford to have a purely defensive backstop... even if he's a backup.

Chris Snyder (31) - Snyder was once considered among the better catchers in the NL. He had reasonable power and a GREAT eye. He also was almost ALWAYS hurt. His OPS took a bounce back towards the positive in 2011 and he feels like a reasonably good fit for the Mets who could use him as the righty starter and defensive replacement for Thole. He might require a two-year deal... but the Mets don't have anyone in the pipeline so that wouldn't be so bad.

Dioner Navarro (28) - Remember 2008 when people thought Dioner was reaching that potential that the Yankees had drafted for in 2000? He hit .295 and was an all star. Remember how he followed that up? Since 2008 he's been nothing special. He fell from favor in Tampa Bay and failed to find himself in Los Angeles. The good news? He'd be earning a "Nothing Special" contract.

Ivan Rodriguez (40) - I've been playing fantasy baseball long enough that I remember Ivan Rodriguez being drafted #1. Rodriguez hasn't been young for 10 years but he was a pretty solid contributor as recently as 2010. PLUS he's just about the best candidate for training Josh Thole to be a star catcher that we could name. My big thing with Pudge is I just can't see him staying healthy enough to be there for 1 out of 4 starts and that is what the Mets would need.

My Plan?: I'd sign Ivan Rodriguez because in MY WORLD... I'm trading Niese for the future catcher of the franchise and want someone who can be a clubhouse leader and train Thole and the young trade target. I also think that if he'd be healthy he'd be a good fit for starting 1/3rd of the games in 2012.

Starting Pitcher:
Pelfrey WAS tendered a contract and I hope he proves all of us wrong over the 2012 season. He COULD do it... MAYBE... With Pelfrey locked down I'm switching gears to something I've talked about a few times... Trading Jon Niese.

I like Niese a lot. I really do. So before anyone gets the idea I'm Anti-Niese or that I don't WANT him on the Mets... cool your jets. I am simply WILLING to trade Niese for one of 5 specific prospect/players that I think are in the REALM of possibilities: Wilin Rosario (Col), Yasmani Grandal (Cin), Devin Mesoraco (Cin), Ryan Lavarnway (Bos) and Jesus Montero (NYY). Getting a catcher to take over

Chris Young - We already have one giant on the team (John Rauch), why not give him some company in the clouds? Young was good (until he was hurt) in 2011 and there is little reason to assume he wouldn't be just as good (and hurt) in 2012. He's a smart guy who knows how to pitch and if he could ever stay healthy (I refuse to infer that he will) he'd potentially return to being the top option he was 4-5 years ago.
Javier Vazquez - Remember that magical season in Atlanta when Javier Vazquez had the stats of a God? The Yankees do. They bought into that career year and suffered through a season of Javier looking like a batting practice machine. He then returns to the NL and... well not right back to near Cy Young but his ERA was under 4.00. He'd be attainable and might actually have the stuff to be a front-end starter.

Matt Harvey - Now people SHOULD say I'm crazy but if you are the Mets and Matt Harvey shows up this spring and blows the competition away, do you send him to the minors? HECK YES YOU DO! ARE YOU NUTZ!?! Then again... if you send him down to AA or AAA and he shines, how long can you keep him there. Harvey and Familia could easily force their own promotions by playing simply well. Fans will demand to see them. We sure don't have too much else we are crazy about seeing right now.

My Plan?: So... I'm trading Niese and signing both Vazquez and Young. Now... we've heard that the Mets would ask for a Jason Hammel type player in a deal for Niese but I think that with WHO we have in the rotation... signing Vazquez who has a better shot of being a #2 pitcher. Young replaces Gee/Schwinden... until he's hurt.

Now... Some well deserved and intended ABUSE...

So... You might have noticed that I'm signing more players than JUST Ivan Rodriguez. The fact is that I believe a NY sports team should be run like a NY Sports team and that a minimum payroll should not teeter near that poverty level of $100 Mil. The Mets should have the money to field a payroll of $120-140 Mil and if it weren't for Darth Fred, Jeff Ponz-Walker and Emperor Madoff we'd be able to do that. Heck... we can add that I'd like to sign Hong-Chih Kuo while I'm at it.

The Team I Listed Above is a Few Things:

1. Not as good as a team WITH Jose Reyes
2. Built to allow a good amount of turnover in the next 2 seasons
3. Capable of staying relevant through the middle of the season
4. Not going to happen with the current ownership regime

Cutnpaste: - Lenny Dykstra, Chris Young, Josh Satin, Zack Wheeler, Mike Nickeas

In his first sit-down interview since copping a plea in his grand theft auto case, Lenny Dykstra — who earned his nickname as a hard-playing, hard-partying Met during the team’s wild days in the 1980s — says he learned his destructive addictions and major league ego cost him his fortune, his marriage and his freedom. “I really for the first time understand humility,” he said Thursday while smoking a cigarette on the patio of his private bungalow at The Hills rehab center. “It’s not everybody else’s fault. It’s not a coincidence that I’m here. It happened because I was using drugs and alcohol. It was a reality check.”Wearing a fleece sweatshirt and a court-ordered ankle monitor, Dykstra said his demons were wine, vodka, pain pills, party drugs and the rush he got blowing through his millions. www.nydn.com

For those who can remember that far back, Chris Young was the key “low-risk, high-reward” signing the thrifty Mets made last winter. Oodles of beat writers, bloggers, and fans couldn’t praise the move enough. After all, when healthy, Chris Young was an outstanding pitcher — a legitimate #2 starter on a championship club. Young would top a rotation that included the surprising R.A. Dickey, the improving Mike Pelfrey, and the poised-for-breakout-season Jonathon Niese. Further, that formidable foursome would be led by superstar Johan Santana, who was sure to be joining the team by June — or the All-Star Break, at the latest. http://www.metstoday.com/7223/2011-mets-evaluations/2011-evaluation-chris-young

11-25-11: - http://risingapple.com/2011/11/25/2011-season-in-review-josh-satin  - Defensively, Josh Satin is kind of like Daniel Murphy-he can play a bunch of positions, but not that well.  In the minors, he spent the most time at second base (250 games) while also seeing action at first (80 games) and third (68 games).  In the Majors, Satin played eight games at first base and one at third.  To quote Toby Hyde of MetsMinorLeagueBlog, “He started playing third, although he doesn’t have the arm for the position. He doesn’t really have the power for first, where he played in the big leagues.” Hyde goes on to say that he sees Satin “as the 25th guy,” especially if he can learn to play left field.  Given that he doesn’t hit for power or play any position particularly well, the bench seems like the most logical fit.  He could serve as a right-handed pinch hitter and stay in the game to play defense if necessary.  While he might not make a huge impact on the team, Satin provides an internal candidate to fill a utility role and add some much needed depth to the club.

11-26-11: - http://seedlingstostars.com  - Zack Wheeler - Wheeler made some nice strides this season, and his arsenal of pitches suggests that he could evolve into a well-above-average starting pitcher, but he’ll need to prove a) that he can hold up for a full season and b) that he can maintain his control for a whole season. His immediate improvement upon switching organizations is a positive sign, and he looks like a great acquisition for a Mets team that is still building toward the future. There’s obvious upside here, and if he can erase the two lingering concerns about him in 2012, Wheeler could become one of the top pitching prospects in the game.

11-26-11: - http://www.metstoday.com/7226/11-12-offseason/2011-evaluation-mike-nickeas  - As much as I like Mike Nickeas, I was completely stunned that the Mets included him on the offseason 40-man roster; did they really think that another team would jump at the chance to pick a 29-year-old, .180-hitting, third-string catcher in the Rule 5 Draft? Seems to me to be a waste of a roster spot, since there are at least two dozen catchers exactly like him throughout AAA. That’s not to say I’m upset; in fact, I’m pleased to know that Nickeas is likely to be in Port St. Lucie come February, and presumably part of the organization’s catching depth in 2012. My guess is he’ll be exactly what he was in ’11: a defensive-minded, backup backstop who can be shuffled between AAA and the bigs as necessary. And within the next 3-5 years, we may see Nickeas move into a minor-league managing post — perhaps in preparation toward a more successful MLB career.

Cutnpaste: Brad Holt, Chris Young, Tim Teufel, Harry Minor, Jason Isringhausen

9-17-11: - Brad Holt (Mets supplemental first-round pick in 2008): The right-hander from UNC-Wilmington rocketed through the minors for the first year of his pro career. But after reaching Binghamton in June 2009, his career has come to a dead stop. After back-to-back rough seasons in Double-A, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Mets take a chance and leave him unprotected. Read more: link  

Chris Young went to a little private college in New Jersey called Princeton. Maybe you’ve heard of it? He was selected by the Pittsburgh Pirates (how unfortunate) in the 2000 amateur draft, but refused to sign his rookie contract until he got assurances from the club that he would be able to complete his studies. So he didn’t end up becoming a full-time pro ballplayers until after he graduated with a degree in politics in 2002. (They don’t call it “political science” at Princeton like they do everywhere else. They can get away with that because, well, they’re Princeton.) Today he’s a pretty respectable no. 4 or no. 5 starting pitcher. - http://www.totalprosports.com/2011/09/16/9-smartest-players-in-major-league-baseball

A Greenwich native, (Tim) Teufel spent four years working his way through the minor leagues in the early eighties and had so much fun he decided to do it all over again, this time as a manager. Teufel just completed his first year at the helm of the Buffalo Bisons, the Mets Triple-A affiliate after years working his way up the ranks, beginning in short-season A-ball with the Brooklyn Cyclones of the NY-Penn League with stops in St. Lucie, Savannah and in Double-A Binghamton for the 2010 season. Read more: http://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/Teufel-watches-his-players-move-up-to-majors-2175813.php#ixzz1YJOpPeJT 

It is all nearing an end for Harry Minor, a lifetime of baseball that began at Wilson High in the 1940s and coursed through a couple of decades in the minor leagues before a seamless odyssey with the New York Mets that has spanned almost a half century. He admits there is a sense of wistfulness hanging over him as the curtain is set to close on his ball diamond endeavors that have brought him near to so many storied figures of the game. "Yeah, it's almost over," he said, and there is a sadness in a voice that normally oozes with vibrancy. "What will I miss? Obviously, the ball games. I never get tired of watching baseball. - http://www.presstelegram.com/sports/ci_18921592  

Mets manager Terry Collins said Jason Isringhausen (back) could be ready to pitch by the end of this week. Izzy has a slipped disk in his back and experienced leg numbness after receiving an epidural last week to help the back issue. He's likely to be used in a setup role when he returns, with Bobby Parnell and Manny Acosta continuing to handle the ninth inning. - http://www.rotoworld.com/sports/mlb/baseball?r=1