Remember 1969: Remember's Ramblings

 

Remember's Ramblings – Volume 2, Article 5

January 28, 2025

 

Line-up Construction

 

 

It was a couple days ago in Mack’s Sunday Observation post that the first rumblings of ‘who is hitting where’ arrived.   After a lot of weeks of Who’s on First, etc. we are close enough to spring to start thinking about the line-up with the players that are currently on the roster.

I think it was Ray that first suggested that Mark Vientos hit in front of Juan Soto.  Then Adam returned with a lineup with Vientos following Lindor and Soto followed by the lefty Jesse Winker in the clean-up spot (against a right handed starter). 

I started to write out a comment, but it got bigger than I wanted so I thought I’d write it up as my Tuesday morning piece to generate further thought. 

A few things that immediately came to mind:

(1)    Francisco Lindor is the lead-off hitter.   He settled in there last year and there is no reason to change what worked. 

(2)   Juan Soto hit exclusively in the #2 hole in 2024.   He had some guy named Judge hitting behind him. 

(3)   At this point, the Mets biggest home run threat for the last 6 years is still out there someplace and won’t be part of this discussion.        

So, is Soto a #2 hitter and that is that?    The answer is no.  According to Baseball Reference, prior to 2024 he had roughly 400 more career plate appearances hitting third than he did hitting second.    AND his career batting average, OBP, slugging and OPS are considerably higher in the 3 spot than the 2 spot.     In addition, his homerun, RBI, and walk rates are all better hitting just in front of the clean-up hitter. 

So that convinced me that he was a perfect #3 hitter.   But wait. With his .400+ annual on base percentage, wouldn’t you want him getting up sooner at least once a game?    If he hits second and gets on base, they are guaranteed a base runner with less than two outs.    Would that skill be somewhat wasted hitting in the three hole where it is possible there are already two outs before he gets up?    

Now it is time to look past just where Soto will hit.   Who else will fill those slots most effectively? 

The common view is that Vientos will biggest power bat going forward.   That might sound like a clean-up hitter.

Brandon Nimmo has always been a high OBP guy that has hit at the top of the line-up to use those on base skills.

Looking at Vientos line-up splits, he actually hit in the clean-up spot only 3 times in 2024 – there was some guy named Alonso that posted up every day.   And in Vientos’s extremely small sample size hitting 4^th, his OPS was an underwhelming .276, which was less than his batting average alone while hitting in the 5^th spot.    His  strongest statistical batting order position was actually 7^th last year, but in a smaller sample size than hitting 5^th.    

Both Nimmo and Lindor show the lead-off spot as their best hitting position, and both by quite a lot.   Unfortunately, Nimmo’s numbers drop quite significantly in the 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th position, but with many fewer at bats.    His best position is actually batting 6^th, but again, with only 122 career plate appearances, compared to his 2537 as a leadoff batter. 

A couple other things to consider is the right-left set up and the team speed.   It seems a little unfortunate that neither of these provides a natural solution.    The do not have a lot of team speed (or even good baserunners), and tend to be pretty left-handed leaning. Ideally an alternating hitting batting order would be in order with some speed at the top.    Vientos may provide the righty bat to hit between Lindor and Soto, but he does not have the speed or baserunning skill in order be an optimal #2 hitter.   In fact, his career XBT, or Extra Base Taken % is more than 14 points lower than the league average.      StarlingMarte would be a better option when he plays, although without other injuries (Nimmo?), it is hard to see him getting regular at-bats.  

So with all this said, against a right handed starter, I guess I would stack the top of the line-up with lefties:

(1)   Lindor

(2)   Nimmo

(3)   Soto

(4)   Vientos

(5)   McNeil

(6)   Alvarez

(7)   Winker

(8)   Baty (who else is going to play first?)

(9)   Taylor or Siri

This gives them their best OBP guys, thus their best chance of scoring more runs, especially in the first inning which is where they fell short last year.  

And on the down side, it exposes them against the lefty bullpens, but ..

Against a lefty, Marte would slot into the (2) position and Nimmo drops down, although Nimmo is actually a pretty good hitter against lefties.    

There doesn’t seem to be much of a set line-up any longer, especially on the Mets team, but I fully expect Lindor to hit leadoff and Soto third.    There is a lot of hope that Vientos and Alvarez continue their improvement.   

Of course, some or much of this becomes moot if they make other roster moves between now and opening day.  

Thoughts?  Comment below!

 

Remember’s Reminiscing:   January 28 Birthdays

 

The only birthday to celebrate today is that of Tsuyoshi Shinjo who turns 53.     I just looked for some fun facts about Tsuyoshi, and found that there weren’t many.   He did have exactly 100 RBI in his career.    And I had forgotten that he actually came back to the Mets for a second stint as a free agent after being traded to the Giants and playing for SF for a year.   Unfortunately, the second go-around did not go well, finishing 2003 with only 124 plate appearances , a .193 BA, and a weak .483 OPS.   Somehow pulled 0.2 WAR from those awful numbers.   A closer look shows -0.8 WAR for offense and +1.0 WAR for his defense.    OK, that was the fun fact:   Shinjo was a terrific center fielder.  Happy Birthday!