Mike Friere - What Now, Mike?

photo by Mack Ade

No, I am not talking to myself, but I have done that before (usually watching Oliver Perez pitch). The subject of this article is actually a different player on the Mets, with the name Mike.

A couple weeks ago, I started a new series of articles that will be titled “What Now”? Essentially, I am going to select a different Mets’ player each week, that I feel could make a positive impact if everything falls just right. More to the point, I am selecting players that are viewed as a “bad investment” or are “questionable” to say the least, for 2012 and beyond.

Last week’s installment focused on Johan Santana, who is a player that I hope can turn things around this year. This week, I am going to stay within the starting rotation and take a closer look at Mike Pelfrey’s potential contributions for 2012.

I am sure that most of you, at some time or another, have played a game called “word association”. Simply put, the game is played with a minimum of two people. One person says a name, place, topic or subject and the other person must immediately say the first word that comes to mind.

For example, if one person said “cheese calzone”, the other person might respond with “lunch”. Or, if you said “the beach”, a normal response would be “vacation”. In my house, if you said “Ommegang beer”, I would respond with “heaven” (it doesn’t mean there is anything wrong with me). I am sure you get the general point.

If you played the game with the average Mets fan, what do you think the response would be to “Mike Pelfrey”? Mine would be “disappointing” or perhaps “waste” as in wasted or underutilized talent. I am sure there are many more words that would be said (some downright nasty), but I don’t think you would find a single Mets fan that is generally pleased with his progress (unless you spoke to his mother, perhaps).

I am not trying to pile on Mike, per se. But I also cannot help but feel that he should be more then he is and that he should have provided more to his team and their overall success. Am I alone in this thought?

Oddly enough, according to Wikipedia, Michael Alan Pelfrey was born on 01/14/84 in Ohio, and he is now a six foot seven inch, 230 pound, right handed ground ball pitcher in the New York Mets organization. I guess the writers on Wikipedia play the word association game, too.

In addition to the general information in the last paragraph, it is also worth noting that the Mets drafted Mike in 2005 with the ninth overall pick out of Wichita State University (who are known as the Shockers, by the way). Pelfrey was actually projected to go higher, but teams were scared off by his salary demands and his agent (Scott Boras), so it was widely assumed that the Mets got a bit of a steal. There were comparisons to other sinker ball specialists, like Kevin Brown and Roy Halladay!

After a lengthy negotiation process, in January 2006 Mike was signed to a four year contract that was worth roughly 8.8 million dollars, including the signing bonus (I guess we did spend some money as an organization, in the past). Getting picked that high and signing a lucrative contract before throwing one pitch as a professional only added to the expectations.

Just for “fun” (because Mets fans like to wallow in their misery), here are the top ten names (plus a few extras) from the 2005 draft, which had to be one of the deepest in recent memory; Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement (who?), Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero, Troy Tulowitzki, Wade Townsend, Mike Pelfrey and Cameron Maybin. Plus, Andrew McCutchen (11th), Jay Bruce (12th) and Jacoby Ellsbury (23rd) were picked in the first round, as well (it’s hard not to think about having McCutchen or Ellsbury, in hindsight).

Anyway, Mike started his Mets’ career with a ton of hype in 2006, making a total of 18 starts across three different minor league stops, while posting pretty good statistics (7-3 2.43 ERA 1.18 WHIP 96.1 IP and respectable peripheral ratios). His quick (perhaps a little too quick, again in hindsight) ascent to the major league roster included four starts for the Mets in 2006, with mixed results.

In 2007, Mike made another 15 starts in the minor leagues (primarily with the AAA affiliate in New Orleans) and didn’t have quite the same success, although it wasn’t “horrible” (3-6 3.94 ERA 1.35 WHIP 80 IP and similar peripheral statistics, lower than 2006, as you would imagine). The slight regression was attributed to “better competition” and a talented pitcher being “bored” and needing to get to the big league club.

Eventually, Mike returned to the major league roster and made thirteen starts, again with mixed results (OK, they were pretty bad). Looking back now, you wonder if 33 total starts (176.1 IP) in the minor leagues were enough, or was he rushed to the big stage too soon? Should the statistical regression(s) have been a red flag?

From 2008 through 2011 (a total of four seasons), Mike stuck with the major league club and has been an established member of the starting rotation. He has averaged 32 starts, with 196 IP, a 4.27 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, among other “below average” statistics (including an alarming number of home runs allowed for a ground ball pitcher). The best compliment given to Mike at this stage is that he is “an innings eater” that every major league rotation needs.

Looking at Doug Pappas’ “similarity scores” on the baseball reference website, Mike profiles with such “stellar” names as Al Nipper and Todd Stottlemyre, at this point in his career and at his current age, which isn't promising.

OK, so maybe I am piling on, after all. But, looking at where he was drafted, what he was paid to sign and how the players drafted around him have produced since that time, how can you not be underwhelmed with his contributions? You simply expect more from a first round draft pick with a college pedigree.

To summarize, from 2008 through 2011, the Mets paid Mike almost 9 million dollars, which was worth an average WAR (wins over replacement level) of 1.6 and an RAR (runs saved over replacement level) of approximately 15. We would only be slightly worse over the last four years with a borderline AAA pitcher instead (Nelson Figueroa anyone?)

Turning our attention to the future, a good question is what to expect from Mike in 2012? The short answer, in my opinion, is “not too much”. Remember, Mike is going to pitch the 2012 season as a 28 year old with over four years of experience as a full time starting pitcher. He can’t be looked upon as a “young” pitcher anymore. More to the point, he is probably “maxed out” with regards to his potential and his production.

Some fans may point to his 2010 season as a sign of his true potential, or that maybe Mike has some Brett Saberhagen in him, since his “good years” and “bad years” seem to alternate a bit, wtih 2012 set to be a “good year”.

I think we look back at 2010 as his “career year” and that his production going forward will be consistent with his four year averages I referenced above. He should be non-tendered, but the fact that the Mets don’t have anyone better at this stage speaks volumes. So, it seems that his greatest contribution for 2012 will be as a “place holder”, until the young pitching in the minor leagues can make it to Queens and take his spot from him.

What do you think?