Stephen Guilbert - 2012 Draft- Players 21-25

At this point in the mock drafts, names start to vary from list to list. I have worked with Mack on coming up with ten more players to round out the "first round”. My initial reaction to what should amount to the bottom third of the first round as it stands right now: there is a lot of raw high school talent in this draft. There will be a future All-Star taken after pick 20. My bet is there are a few. The problem GMs and scouting teams have to reckon with at this point is taking athleticism, projection, and ceiling over poise, durability, and refinement. Two players that could be taken back-to-back are Arizona State righty Jake Barrett and Ball State HS outfielder Nick Williams. Now, I do not see Barrett ever being much more than a mid rotation starter or a late-inning reliever. But his floor is not much worse than that either. Williams, on the other hand, could be a five-tool, all-star outfielder with serious power. He might never live up to his athleticism and flounder once facing AA pitching. Which do you draft? Sandy and company made a statement last year in drafting Nimmo and they seem more interested in developing outstanding athletes instead of playing it safe.

Personally, I prefer this strategy. Yes, more prospects will bust, but you place more emphasis on your player development, training, and minor league regiments. If you have faith in those, drafting with this strategy plays to your strengths.

There will be many of these decisions for teams to make—Appel vs. Giolito at the top of the round. Gausman vs. McCullers a few picks later. Buxton vs. Victor Roache somewhere around there as well. SS Marrero vs. Carlos Correa. Wacha or Fried. And that is just the first half of the first round. Some teams are drafting towards role-type players who could help the team quickly. The Mets are not and should not be one of those teams. Although high schoolers drafted in 2012 will not be ready for the much-anticipated “2014 Mets”, continuing to draft for upside rather than polish will only continue to stock the farm with elite talent.

This is not to say I advocate drafting only high school players—that is not the point of this at all. Some players have both a ceiling not yet near reached but also poise and experience (see Kausman, Kevin and Zunino, Mike). Similarly, there are college players that come with considerable risk and offer an enormous ceiling (Johnson, Brian). However, given the Mets need for impact talent, I would rather see them roll the dice than end up with another player the likes of Kunz, Pelfrey, Humber, etc. who were closer to the majors but did not have the ceiling of other players available.

These five guys are quite intriguing. I very much like Underwood although I could see the Braves taking a local kid with a live fastball in the first round and I do not see the Mets reaching at #12 but we will see. SS Carlos Correa is one of my "hands-down favorites" in this draft. Even though his placement on these lists varies, I expect he will go in the top 10 and if he is around by #12, the Mets will (and should) look hard at him. But first let's start off with an athletic five-tool outfielder:

 

#21- OF David Dahl – Oak Mountain High School (AL)

Why ranked #21: For the team looking for a five-tool outfielder with strong skills across the board who missed out on Byron Buxton will look long and hard at Dahl. He brings impressive defensive skills with a great throwing arm. Even though his defense is his greatest asset at this point, his 6.5 speed suggests he will be a terror on the paths. Line drive hitter with good swing mechanics and quick hands. Could add power down the road but defense should play in center long term making the power icing on the cake.

Why the Mets would draft him: The same argument for wanting Buxton in the system could be made for Dahl. Hard-working, multi-skilled outfielder who will look great with Nimmo and Puello in a future Citi outfield. Most scouts do not think Dahl’s ceiling is quite as high as Buxton’s and I am inclined to agree. If Buxton is McCutchen to Ellsbury, Dahl is Schafer to Gardner. Either way, I would take it. People say he has a good work ethic and is a student of the game. Good guy to work with in the system and it would be fun to see Dahl vs. Nimmo in their ascent through the minors. As established in earlier posts, there will be more talent on the board but if Dahl falls to the supplemental I would grab him.

Tools: All five tools are there and scouts think the power will come. Very strong fielding skills and a strong arm. Plus-plus speed and good hands with the bat.  

Ceiling: Gold-glove center fielder and a lead-off hitter.

Trivia: David is committed to Auburn University.

(Mack - I consider Dahl one of the top three outfielders in this draft. I would gladly take him with my first pick, unless Victor Roache ws still on the board)

#22- SS Carlos Correa – Puerto Rico Baseball Academy (Puerto Rico)

Why ranked #22: Impressive defensive shortstop with good instincts, movement, and a strong throwing arm. Offensive skills project well, too—quick hands, good bat speed, should hit for average and power down the road.

Why the Mets would draft him: I really like Correa and although he is much lower on some boards than others (for no reason that I can see), I would jump at the chance to draft Correa even at #12. He’s not at the level of Manny Machado or Deven Marrero but Correa brings a complete skill set to the table none the less and would immediately become the best shortstop prospect in the system. All of the skills are there and my gut about this kid is that he will only get better from here. I hope he can stay at shortstop but even at third he will be a defensive wizard. Big and strong athlete with good natural instincts. Great guy to develop and the Mets should look seriously at him. 

Tools: All five tools are present. 6.79-60 suggests good but not blazing speed and his bat speed and hands will let him hit for a high average and for power against premium talent. Calling card is his defense which is already a plus skill.

Ceiling: All-Star third baseman and a perennial gold-glove winner at the hot corner (chance for all of this at shortstop as well…we will have to see). 

Trivia: Courtesy of MLB Draft Guide: “I look at baseball, apart from having fun, as a job that can allow me to help my family economically. With God’s help, I can one day help my entire family.” – SS Carlos Correa
(Mack - I also like this kid. I have him currently projected as the 2nd SS taken in the draft, definitely in the first round)

#23- RHP Duane Underwood – Pope HS (Georgia)

Why ranked #23: Has the makings of a strikeout artist and power pitcher in the big leagues with a mid-90s fastball that reaches the high 90s, keeps velocity late in games, and complements his great heater with a very solid change and a strong curve as well. Although scouts describe Underwood’s rawness much the way they do OF Nick Williams, Underwood has a huge ceiling.

Why the Mets would draft him: A lot to like about a kid with Underwood’s repertoire. Throws three pitches and his ceiling is an ace. Even though Underwood might end up in the bullpen, never live up to his potential, or ever harness all of his natural ability, he is still a risk worth taking. I am unsure if the Mets would reach for him at #12 given the talent on the board and I think he will be gone by the supplemental, crazier things have happened and the Mets might pull the trigger if they like him enough. Watch for his name on draft day and if the Mets pass the first time, cross your fingers that he falls to the supplemental round. This guy is Domingo Tapia with a curve and a changeup that can miss bats already.

Throws: Four-seam fastball (mid-90s, touches 97), solid change with tail action and a tight-spinning curve.

Ceiling: SP1.

Trivia: According to ESPN, a scout they talked to saw Underwood throwing 94 MPH even after the 75 pitch mark. That is arm strength, folks.

(Mack - Please stop writing about this kid. He's my deep dark secret so the Mets can pick him with their 3rd pick overall.  Do you have any idea how BIG it is to find a high school kid hitting 97?)
 

#24- RHP Taylore Cherry- Vandalia Butler HS (Indiana)

Why ranked #24: Scouts love his size (6’9”, 260 lbs.). I have stated in the past that size truly has no correlation to success. However, what I do like is that Cherry throws in the low to mid-90s and has an above-average change…both of which he throws for strikes as a high schooler. Given his age, that is fantastic and enough to garner a look in the first round. This is the type of player I think will rocket up draft boards in the spring if he pitches as well as he did last year.

Why the Mets would draft him: The Mets have a number of young power pitchers with less-than-stellar control and putting a player like Cherry in the system would change that. He is a big kid but with a smooth and easy motion. I do not see a major injury in his future due to his mechanics. Throws both a two-seamer and a four-seamer to go along with that nice change and while the breaking pitch is still coming, I expect it will get there. Four pitches from a kid who already has his makeup makes him one of the safer and yet higher-ceiling highschoolers in the draft. You can never have too much pitching and Cherry is worth a look even at #12. I personally do not think the Mets will reach there but you never know. It is all about where the Mets rank these guys.

Throws: Four-seam fastball (92-94), two-seamer (low 90s), strong change. Breaking ball is there but I have not found much tape on him throwing it (nor read much about it in scouting reports. More later if I find it).

Ceiling: Top of the rotation pitcher with a strong KK/B ratio and eats a ton of innings with an efficient ERA.

Trivia: The Giants blogosphere seems to be interesting in taking Cherry at #20. They even mention that with the trade of Wheeler to the Mets, the Giants are uncharacteristically low on SP talent and Cherry would be a nice addition to the franchise. I agree with them and could certainly see the Giants snagging Cherry at 20.

(Mack - we all know there are only a handfull of RHSP in MLB under 6-0... well, there aren't that many above 6-8 either. I like my pitchers in the 6-3 to 6-5 range. Perfect delivery arch. Also, you don't want to be on the food line behind this kid)

#25- OF Albert Almora – Mater Academy (Florida)

Why ranked #25: Athletic center-fielder with strong tools across the board. High ceiling, projectable. Quick, compact swing that is of the line-drive variety right now but his bat speed suggests more power could develop down the road. Five-tool athlete who runs well, steals bases, and plays the outfield well. Should stick in center and could very well end up being a strong lead-off hitter at the next level.

Why the Mets would draft him: Mets need a toolsy speedster with lead-off capability and Almora fits the bill. He will likely go in the first round and he could be a surprise pick early in the first round like Nimmo was last year. I like Almora and I am unsure why he is considered behind Jankowski, Dahl, Roache-type players in the draft this year. Again at this point I am not sure the Mets will reach for him at #12 but if they did, they could do far worse. Almora brings a lot to the table and he would, in my mind, be a fringe top-100 prospect in baseball after a season if not higher/sooner.

Tools: All five are there and all five are strong. Hitting home runs not a priority but given his smooth swing, quick hands, strength and discipline, I will bet he is a double-digit HR guy before long.

Ceiling: Five-tool lead-off hitter for a championship-caliber club. 

Trivia: Almora won a Gold medal and took home the MVP award for Team USA in the Pan-American games last year.

(Mack - I don't know enough about this kid to give an educated opinion...)

--Stephen