Greetings Mets fans, I have found my way back to this wonderful site after a brief hiatus to attend to some personal issues. I look forward to contributing to the overall content and I hope to spark some discussion on the future direction of our favorite ball club.
In short, this series of articles will try to analyze a different position on the Mets’ team each week, with the express intent to gauge where we are now (2012) and where we are headed in the future (think 2014 and beyond, otherwise known as Sandy’s timetable).
This type of analysis is helpful, in that it can explain roster moves or a lack thereof as we go along. A single move may not make much sense, but if you take a step back and look at the series as a whole, you may start to figure out what Sandy’s true plan is (contending in 2014).
I also plan on using some basic statistics from time to time to make a point, but I will try to keep it light since that is not everyone’s “thing” so to speak. Basically, I am going to look at the top ten players at the specific question, generate an average for the list and compare it to where we are and where we want to be. After all, imagine if we had top ten talent at every position on the field! I would take that in a heartbeat, and so should you.
For the first installment, I want to focus on the biggest area of need on our roster, which is at catcher. I affectionately refer to the position as the “black hole”, since it has been pretty much non-existent post-Piazza.
For starters, let’s look at the top ten list for catcher to get a baseline of where we would like to be in the future. I will use an average of the last three years’ statistics (2009-2011), since the current season is incomplete. Furthermore, I will use OPS (on base percentage, plus slugging percentage) to evaluate the catchers offensively, since it is an inclusive statistic (not perfect, but a solid choice).
But what about defense! Some defensive statistics are easy to compare, others not so much. For example, “calling a good game” is hard to quantify. The percentage of runners thrown out stealing is easier to see, but it involves the pitcher and their ability to hold runners close, etc. Plus, who is really concerned about a catcher’s defensive range? I value defense, but I am focusing more on offense (but I will mention defense and/or reputation, if applicable).
So, who are the top ten catchers from 2011? My list would include the following catchers; Mauer, Napoli, VMartinez, McCann, Montero, Ruiz, Soto, Buck, Wieters and YMolina. I only focused on the players who averaged at least 350 at bats over the three year period (I want my catcher to actually catch a majority of the games) and it was sorted by OPS.
What did I learn? The “average” amongst the top ten catchers’ averages (weird) is 425 AB’s and an OPS of .807 (slightly inflated by VMartinez and a few of the other AL catchers who can also DH). Generally speaking, the listed catchers actually played around 120 to 130 games, which is significant. It also shows the need for a solid back up catcher. Either way, keep those numbers in mind as we move forward.
Who do we have at catcher right now? Josh Thole, who by all accounts is a pretty solid receiver (still not great, but is generally improving), so long as his concussion issues don’t continue to interfere.
However, Josh’s averages for the past three years are 198 AB and an OPS of .706, which is not that great, but he hasn’t really been a full time player for the entire time. So, focusing on just 2011, he posted 340 AB’s and an OPS of .689 and so far in 2012 he has posted 192 AB’s and an OPS of .659, which simply is not very good.
While still young (25), I don’t see Josh improving that much from this point forward. His statistics and injury history would make him someone that I would not count on as our future backstop. However, I do think that Josh is someone that would be an ideal back up catcher, filling in for thirty to forty starts, maximum, while also giving you a pinch hitter on the bench when is isn’t starting.
If you want more proof, who are Sandy and Company looking at, if the trade rumors are to be believed? A catcher! Not a ringing endorsement for our current state of affairs, if “over the hill” types like Ramon Hernandez are an upgrade.
The other catchers on the major league roster (Johnson, Nickeas) are short term, fill in types. Hell, Johnson and Nickeas combined have an average OPS of under .600, which is putrid.
What about the minor leagues? I think it is hard to look at anyone below AA and truly project their future (plus kids in A ball are at least three years away, if not more). I will generally leave that speculation up to the writers here who are more in tune with the “kids”. However, initially looking at AA and AAA, you have the following players;
May (AAA) .636, Blaquiere (AAA) .563, Centeno (AA) .684, Pena (AA) .629 and Gronauer (AA) .562
Damn! Not a very pretty picture, if you ask me. If the collection of names here cannot pass .700 OPS in AA and AAA, how the hell are they going to play better then Josh Thole, whom we all agreed a few sentences ago was not very good? I don’t see a single prospect on that list.
OK, just for a little more reference, looking deeper into the farm system at just St Lucie (A+) and Savannah (A), you have Forsythe (A+) .780 and Maron (A) .771, which is a bit more promising. However, from listening to Mack, Forsythe is pretty old for his current level, so that may not be as enticing as originally thought. That leaves us with Maron, who may develop, but .771 in A ball isn’t blowing anyone’s socks off, not to mention that is four levels below Queens.
So, where does that leave us? We have a back up catcher filling in as our starter, with no real prospects at the middle and/or upper levels of our farms system. Especially if you view the situation through the lens of 2014 and beyond. I would say that our starting catcher for 2014 is not yet on our roster. Does that player arrive via trade or the free agent market? I am hoping for a trade, especially if you look at the scraps that qualify as free agents in 2013.
If I had my choice, I would seek a “Yadier Molina” type (yes, it kills me to type his name and I still ache over his NLCS home run). He is not a superstar, but he does everything you ask pretty well, is as tough as they come and he plays regularly.
If Sandy makes one move this season, or in the offseason, I hope it is for a young catcher that can step in in 2014 and put Josh Thole where he belongs (on the bench as our #2 catcher).
Who would you want?
(Sorry Mack, I know this strikes a nerve with you, especially since the Mets passed on Yasmani Grandal in a recent draft......who by the way has a .841 OPS in his first 53 AB as a major leaguer)
No comments:
Post a Comment