Coming
Later Today –
9 30 am – Herb G
– Minor League Report
I hope
the Mets noticed that one of my favorites early for the 10th pick in
the draft, Vanderbilt RHP Tyler Beede, got back
on the horse and sat 93-97, hitting 99 on Friday night. He Also struck out 14
Xavier batters in eight innings.
(keithlaw
@keithlaw
- Heard from a scout at the regional that Tyler Beede looked the best he
has all season in his outing last night.)
I heard
from an old buddy of mine today, Jonathan Elfenbein (@ReliableJon)
who is close friends with one of Mack’s Mets original writer’s David Rubin (@djrubin). Jon reports that David’s wife, Shari, had a
successful kidney transplant and everything is back to being kosher in the
Rubin household. Any of you that have been around here for a while will
remember David’s great posts and, frankly, he was more of a partner here with
me than simply a writer. Feel free to contact him on Twitter and try to get him
back as a writer here.
I want to continue our discussions about relief pitching.
Let’s face it, there are two different kinds of relief pitches
and the only ones that seem to get any press are the closers. Jenrry Mejia couldn’t wrap himself around
the concept of relieving until he was told he was going to close. All of a
sudden, he had self-importance.
You might have noticed that Rafael Montero gave up no runs in the first two innings he pitched on Friday
night which would help support his role might be better served in the pen. I no
longer try and understand why starters can’t seem to get past six or seven
innings anymore. What I do know is you need six or seven effective relievers on
your staff to turn a gamer you were leading in the sixth into a victory at the
end of nine.
You also can’t fault the pen here for the loss. There was a
stretch where they produced eight straight scoreless innings, a feat that
should have produced a victory. This was a bad night for Montero, but, in
addition, defense is coming into play again. You can’t win at this game without
power hitting if you’re going to throw and kick the ball around.
I don’t expect Montero to be back for a while. First, the Mets
get an opportunity to showcase Dice-K before the trade deadline comes up and,
secondly, this would give Montero a chance to hook back up with Frank Viola and work on what’s bothering
him. He only had two bad outings but right now, the Mets need to start playing
.700 ball if they want to keep in the race for a wild card slot.
Saturday’s game proved we even have longer to go. I think the
right pitchers are there but just need the right set of circumstances. It sure
would be nice to give these guys a 7-0 lead once in a while.
We talk all the time about firming up our ‘dream rotation’ for
2015. We throw a lot of names out there like Montero, Syndargaard, and Wheeler,
but two less, exciting guys may just be added here to make it a lot easy to get
this job done. Let’s face it… Dillon Gee has been the Mets best starter over the 2013-2014 season… and
the guy that is turning heads right now is Jacob deGrom. Add Matt Harvey to the mix and 60% of your future rotation may already be
formed. This leaves you the 2015 contract of Bartolo Colon and what decisions you want/need to make regarding Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Noah Syndergaard, and Rafael Montero. This is a really good
problem that’s developing.
Gary Seagren asked –
Hi Mack, after your last post on the draft
wouldn't Zimmer also be in the mix if available along with Newcomb and Turner
and if so what's your pick?
Hey Gary. Good to hear from you.
Oh yeah, Zimmer is definitely
in the mix and should be available at #10. Only one outfielder will be drafted
in the first nine picks and he’s behind the plate right now (Alex Jackson). If… and this is a big if…
the Mets go outfield, they will have to pick between ‘tools, defense, and a
cannon for an arm’ (Zimmer) or above average power with limited speed (Michael Conforto). Think of Zimmer as Brandon Nimmo v2.0, while Conforto ‘attacks’
the game similar to Lucas Duda or Alan Dykstra.
So, put the three on the board
and where do I go?
I love Newcomb but the Mets
have to start drafting outfielders. I’d go with Zimmer and ship him straight to
St. Lucie.
19 comments:
Mack, The Mets have to take the best player available and if that's Newcomb or Beede you take the pitcher. I'm not thrilled with either Zimmer or Conforto. At #10 I'd make my pick in this order Turner,Newcomb,and Beede. One of those players will be available.
I'm on the Zimmer, Turner & Conforto (in that order) train as well. We need bats and bays that are 2-3 years away and not 5-6.
Did you notice we are all in the college junior wheelhouse?
I hope we are right.
What is it with the Mets and the retreads like Carlyle and Eveland? I know Carlyle has been doing well for Backman but Eveland is just "Meh!" Both Thornton and Socolovich have been significantly better and suffer the same "not on the 40-man roster" disease yet weren't taken.
Reese -
They needed a spot starter and Everland has been doing that for awhile this season.
It's just one game.
Let's sit back and see if it works against the divisions's worst team.
Tampa Bay got themselves a very good outfielder from the philosophy of developing pitching. Wil Myers is better than any of the outfielders in the draft. We can trade Niese, Gee, or Wheeler and get an outfield prospect better than any in this draft unlikely that it will be a player at the level of Myers.
No player drafted is going to step in in 2014 or 2015 and fix current problems. You have to draft the best player. If that player is a pitcher and is successful and you don't have an spot than you have a trade chip.
Hoffman may be the best player in the draft. You have to wait an extra year but I think he is worth that risk. Before he was injured he was better than Harvey at the same point. It's unlikely he will reach Harvey's status and that goes for many pitchers who were or will be better college pitchers than Harvey was. I still believe Hoffman has the best chance of being a star of the players who might be there at #10. Next I would go with Newcomb, although he seems to be moving up and might go in the first 9. Beede would be my third choice if the unlikely doesn't happen, like Kolek slipping to 10.
Richard Jones
Richard, I would be thrilled if the Mets picked Hoffman but the mass Mets fans on places like #MetsTwitter would go nuts.
From what I can tell from the landscape right now, I think the following players will be on the board who we like here on MM:
Zimmer (odds getting lower and lower as some have him as high as #5 to the Cubs. I put it 50-50)
Hoffman
Toussaint
Turner (I think he might be there…again 50-50 here)
Gettys
Newcomb
Gatewood
Beede
Conforto
Some even think Nola might be around.
Take your pick. Right now the top 9 looks like:
1.) Aiken
2.) Jackson
3.) Rodon
4.) Kolek
5.) Gordon
6.) Nola
7.) Freeland
8.) Pentecost
9.) Turner
but I've heard a couple reports that Toronto really like Toussaint which could push Turner to us. Needless to say we'll have college pitching (Hoffman, Beede, Newcomb) and outfield (Zimmer, Conforto) to choose from.
Mack
I believe a large majority of ticket buyers pay little attention to the draft. Those that do, know that it takes time to build through the draft. There will be those that will not be happy with the Mets drafting Hoffman and they will make sure their heard. Most that do follow the draft might prefer a bat but I think they would understand the logic in draft Hoffman and they would be able to accept that pick even if they weren't trilled.
I think it would be unfair to compare Hoffman to Harvey. Wheeler is a work in progress so I see him as a more reasonable comparison. So do you pick Duda over Wheeler. You compared Conforto to Duda so I'm going with that. Also they should be able to sign Hoffman for $500K-$750K under slot. That is based on the money slotted for the 15-20 pick where I think he should go. The would allow the Mets to go as high as 1.4 million with there 2nd pick if someone fell because of signability issues.
Mack - You know my thoughts on the draft. Turner if he's available, Now here's a out-of the box idea. Put him at AA for the 2nd half, and see if he can make a push to be the SS on Opening Day 2015, or by ASB 2015 after a half season in Vegas.
On next year's rotation,
I think Niese is a lock, unless we trade him. I don't see us going without a lefty, which means Niese is here until Matz is ready. To me, Wheeler is the man on the bubble right now. Unless...
I could see them going with some variation on a six-man roster, to give Harvey some extra rest first year back after TJS. If you buy into the theory that too much early pitching contributes to TJS, it would make sense to have him take it easy and ease back into pitching for a while.
Stephen
I thing I'm seeing a consensus on is the top 5. Callis has Newcomb going #6. I've seen both Zimmer and Conforto in the top 9. I've seen Hoffman going has high as 7. Last year after the top 3 or 4 it became very unpredictable. If I was making the pick Gatewood would be the only bat I would consider. He is a high risk but he as the potential to give a very large payoff. I would rather take a large risk and have a chance of getting a future all star than draft a player who is 100% sure to a platoon player.
The Mets 2015 rotation
I want to see what Wheeler does from his last start to the trading deadline. I would be looking at what Gee, Niese, and Wheeler could bring back. Like Mack said Gee has been our best pitcher since Harvey went down. I believe in selling high. If he could bring us a Joc Pederson I would trade him. I don't know if that would be a good match so I doubt it would be him. I would need to see contenders that need pitching and have outfield prospects. I also think Profar is a trade possibility. So who goes depends on what I can get back for them. I'm also not sold on deGrom yet. I think he will be a solid start but I'm not jumping on the band wagon that has him as the next Harvey. Will see how he does the 2nd time around the league.
As far as Niese I don't see the logic in needing a lefty. I do for the bullpen but not a starter. If we going to be facing a left handed hitting team Friday and Neise is schedule to pitch Thursday against an all righ handed hitting team he pitches Thursday. I do think it helps to have contrast in the rotation but that can come in ways other than right handed or left handed.
Next year's rotation 'locks' are likely Harvey and Niese. Wheeler has shown what he can do and with a little more experience and polish I believe he can reach his ceiling - I wouldn't deal him. Thor still has ace upside, something that can't be said about Gee or deGrom even though they've pitched awfully well.
That's 4 out of 5 spots. I'd bring in a cheap vet to hold #5 until Matz is ready.
This way we can capitalize on what our 'other' pitching talent has been doing (Gee, deGrom, Montero) by maximizing their trade value. We keep the young guns with SP1 or SP2 upside as well as our stalwart lefty in Niese. We need offense and trades have to be made, I think the best policy is to hold onto the pitchers with the highest ceilings.
DeGrom has to be on a lot of GM's radars by now with what he's done in the bigs so far. Maybe he can be our Walt Terrell this time around and bring in a foundation piece for the lineup.
Michael
They will not to bring in a cheap vet. They already have an expensive one, Colon. I don't think they will be able to move him. Why give him up and eat most of his salary and then bring in another vet.
Michael could be right about deGrom.
If you are going to move him, you want to do so before he works his way through the league.
Right now, deGrom could get you a Joc Peterson-type OF prospect... this could all change with 2 bad outings
Analyzing the Mets needs entering into the 2014 draft and trading deadline by position, ranked from biggest to least.
The outfield
I think Lagares is showing that he is going to hit. He is a long term solution to centerfield. Granderson is going to be here for a few more years and along with Nimo they should cover the 2nd outfield position for a while. They might overlap for at most a year. That leaves another outfield spot which the Mets have no current or foreseeable future solution to.
I don’t think this is something the Mets should try to address through the draft. They can’t wait. I think they should target prospects like Joc Pederson and Gregory Polanco. Could deGrom, Gee, Neise or Wheeler get one of those?
Shortstop
This is a need but it is not as large as the outfield since it isn’t as big an offensive position as leftfield. Tejeda is coming around. Flores seemed to make all the routine plays. Made a couple of mental errors but he could get the job done. They do have a couple of prospects but the a few years away. Rosario and Cecchini.
I would like to see the Mets target Profar and to a much lesser degree Sardinas from the Rangers.
1st Base
At the major league level this is a much bigger need than shortstop but Smith is looking like the real deal. The Mets pushed him by playing him in full season A ball. Smith had a rough April but hit .320 in May. He seems to learn fast and make the needed adjustments. He is still at least 2 years away. He needs to hit for more power, only 7 extra base hits, all doubles.
3rd base
Wright is here but I think this is about the right time to be looking for a third baseman in the draft.
I would look to draft potential 3rd base prospects beginning with the 2nd pick. Could be high school shortstops.
Catcher
d’Arnaud’s offense is starting to concern me. I haven’t given up yet. All his injuries set him back. Hopefully he stays healthy and comes around. Plawecki is looking like he could be someone we can fall back on.
2nd base is looking good.
Murphy is here. Flores gives some depth and Herrera gives us a prospect for the future.
Pitching
Harvey and Syndergaard are the only untouchables as far as I'm concerned. I would like to keep proven pitchers like Gee and Neise and I would be reluctant to deal them. I would deal one of them if it can bring me a Profar or Polanco. I would have to keep the other along with Colon for 2 of the 3 remaing slots. I would not trade Wheeler at this point. I want to see if he builds on his last start. If he does not I can see moving him or deGrom. I would hold onto Montero. He can be insurance as a starter or help in the pen.
Pitching is their biggest strength but I still believe this is the way to go at the top of the draft. Pitching is much deeper in this draft than hitting. I also think the Mets will be moving some pitching of not before July 31 than in the off season. After this current group, Matz is the only strong prospect.
In summary the Mets should look to deal from their pitch surplus for an outfielder and a shortstop. They should draft the best player available with their first pick. Although they likely won’t draft Hoffman they should. After that they need to look for, high ceiling, high school, outfielders and 3rd basemen.
I've been assuming he gets moved to a contender. If he doesn't, then let him SP5.
Richard -
As far as SS, I think Chris Owings would be a good move. We match up well with AZ, and I don't want to move on Profar until we see how his shoulder responds. Latest injury update says he's out for the season. I think DeGrom could get us Owings and another(low-level) prospect. Make that Gee instead of DeGrom and you could get a better prospect. They've got a 3B/1B at A+ ball (Brandon Drury) that looks good - .287/.347/.894, although his defense is "adequate". His arm's a 55, so maybe switch him to OF?
Profar should be back before the season is over. I live in north Texas and I get a lot of Ranger news. He should be back in late August but it is after the trading deadline. I think he is much better than Owings. I have Owings and Sardinas at about the same level. With all of the Rangers pitching injuries they match up well also. Owings is safer than Profar and I still don't know if the Rangers would be willing to deal Profar at a reasonable price.
I do think we agree that we should address shortstop via the trade route. AZ has had a high price on Owings and since he won their shortstop position I don't know if deGrom gets it done, let alone bringing another prospect. Every G.M. has seen hot prospects get off to great starts and than fizzle out. deGrom doesn't have enough history yet. Right now I think we could get Gregorius for deGrom straight up.
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