Reese Kaplan - Should They Stay or Should They Go?

With apologies to The Clash, it's time to play that game of roster decisions. The Wilpons were highly disingenuous with the fan base when they said there was a plan for contention during the 2014/2015 time frame.  They sold that bill of goods to David Wright, too, when they paid him off to stay here for a hometown discount with the promise they would be putting a competitive team on the field.   Had they been honest with everyone, they would have told the fans they were doing everything possible to ensure a long term contender which, unfortunately, would have included trading David Wright rather than extending him for too many years and too much limited money.

So here we are at the precipice of another losing season, this time tempered only by the Philiadelphia Phillies decrepitude.  The pitching is still here (though between injuries and an inexplicable about-face by Rafael Montero) it’s not exactly panning out as planned.  Going forward you need to decide who is key to the future of the franchise and who has to go.  Needless to say, you have a couple of immovable contracts on the books for Curtis Granderson and David Wright.  You have to figure they’re here for the long haul regardless of performance.  So let’s see what other options we have if we were going to start with a blank sheet of paper.

First Base

Lucas Duda is still not aggressive enough to inspire confidence he’ll be better than the lower third of first basemen in the league.   He’s one of the few power threats in the lineup, but his sinking average makes him someone that pitchers look forward to facing, not fear in the batter’s box.  Allowing him to occupy 1^st base for the remainder of the year pretty much guarantees a hefty raise as he accumulates enough in HRs and RBIs to make him more expensive than the last 1^st basemen unceremoniously dispatched to the Pirates. 

The short term solution would be to promote Alan Dykstra from AAA to play in place of Duda.  This move would depress Duda’s salary for next season (if he’s indeed part of the future) and let you see what you have with Dykstra who is the poster child for OBP.  If you feel compelled to keep up the platoon nonsense, you have Eric Campbell and AAA’s Josh Satin waiting for the right handed ABs. 

Second Base

Arguably your most valuable trade chip, Daniel Murphy is a hard worker and solid producer whose defensive and baserunning gaffes are not so frequent that they overwhelm his positive contributions at the plate.  He’s proven he can hit major league pitching over the past several years and he’s left handed to boot.  While you could argue that for these very reasons he should be part of the nucleus going forward, the fact remains you have to give to get and there is precious little in the Mets cupboard in terms of proven major league talent other teams would accept.  You have alternatives in Wilmer Flores, Josh Satin or even Terry Collins’ favorite, Eric Young, Jr.

Shortstop

Ruben Tejada is not the answer.  Keep him for the former Omar Quintanilla role if you must, but stop the madness and fill the black hole.  If it’s not going to be Wilmer Flores and you’re not ready to rush Wilfredo Tovar or Matt Reynolds to the majors, then you have to get someone from outside the organization.

C

Promote Juan Centeno and please stop with the over-30 career .200 hitters.  They’re fine for backup roles but you need to see who is worthy and capable of major league opportunities.  Both Anthony Recker and Taylor Teagarden have had 4-6 years to establish themselves and failed to do so.  Why waste ABs on either of them?  Even at that, Centeno is probably auditioning for a role as a backup or as a trade candidate with Travis d’Arnaud still considered the primary catcher for the future until Kevin Plawecki is ready.  I’m assuming TdA gets another shot come August and to begin 2015. 

OF

With Juan Lagares on the DL and Curtis Granderson set to make Jason Bay money, you have two of the three slots filled unless you really want to roll the dice and offer up Lagares in trade.   He too would be attractive to another team, but the other CF options available in-house at the major and minor league levels – Chris Young, Matt den Dekker, Kirk Nieuwenhuis – are all unappealing and not long term solutions.  Even the left fielder choices leave a lot to be desired.  Still, I’d rather see Andrew Brown and Eric Campbell trying to establish themselves by playing regularly than I would more of Chris Young, Eric Young or Bobby Abreu. 

SP

Before he went down with his injury, Dillon Gee was showing that the latter part of 2013 was not a fluke.  Jon Niese is having the best season of his career.  Bartolo Colon has had a few stinkers but in his last four starts is pitching to a sub 2.00 ERA.  Daisuke Matsuzaka has made himself into a trade chip.  Jacob de Grom probably wishes he could take the thin air of Las Vegas with him as he’s turning into the ultimate hard luck pitcher.  Matt Harvey and Jeremy Hefner are down for the count.  Rafael Montero seemingly got spooked with his first big league exposure and it’s carried over on his return to AAA.  Noah Syndergaard is injured (non-pitching side) but still shaky with his command.  Zack Wheeler is still searching for consistency. 

Now you have to decide which of these pitchers are part of your future.  If it was up to me, the no-brainers are Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, Jacob de Grom and one of Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard.  Zack Wheeler has more value than do the other youngsters because he has shown he can pitch at this level, hence he would net more in trade.  Bartolo Colon is probably an ASB salary dump and Dice-K could similarly net a warm body in the upper minors.  The real key is Dillon Gee showing he is healthy.  Although he’s outpitched Niese for his career, he’s right handed as is everyone else as rotation possibilities.  Niese’s left handedness and favorable contract terms make him the one to keep.  Gee should net a fairly good return given his modest salary and stellar production even though he’s not a classic power pitcher.  Hefner is a AAAA filler for injuries/incompetence.  Hopefully we’ll see progression of other pitchers to AAA next season who might fill that role, too. 

RP

In the bullpen you’re starting to see the emergence of an under-30 group that is highly respectable.  Jeurys Familia, Vic Black, Josh Edgin and Jenrry Mejia all should be kept right where they are.  Carlos Torres is a little bit older, but Thursday’s implosion notwithstanding, he’s been a terrific pitcher in his middle inning role.  Bobby Parnell hopefully will be coming back as well, so for once going into the next off-season there shouldn’t be a mad scramble for scrap heap pickups.  You also have Zack Thornton, Miguel Socolovich and Ryan Reid doing fairly well in AAA with Joel Carreño succeeding in relief (but failing thus far as a starter). 

So what do we have here to trade to improve the club? 

• Dillon Gee
• Daniel Murphy
• Bartolo Colon
• Rafael Montero or Noah Syndergaard
• Zack Wheeler
• Daisuke Matsuzaka 

It would seem to me that you should be able to net someone’s AAA prospects with that many chips available.  Bear in mind that you might need a first baseman, too, depending on what you do with Lucas Duda, Alan Dykstra, Eric Campbell and Josh Satin.  Ironically the answer there might have been the Rakuten Eagles’ new corner infielder whose career was derailed by injuries and the presence of David Wright.   There are other chips on the table, too -- the rest of the roster -- but pretty much none could start on another major league team. 

Assuming Lagares and Flores are still here next year, you really only need to find one outfielder, a shortstop and possibly a first baseman.  It appears doable, but it would require the club being honest with its fans about going backwards in order to progress forwards.  Honesty has not been something the Wilpons have done very well.  Maybe the new PR guy can help.