6/3/14

Stephen Guilbert - Blue Jays Dictate Mets' Fate in '14 Draft

Late-season success took the Mets out of contention for one of the top 7 in the draft.


The Blue Jays sandwich the Mets in the 2014 amateur player draft held this week in New Jersey. How could the Blue Jays play this?

One method would be to reach for a player at #9 who projects towards the back end of the first round and sign them for under slot, then pick a player at #11 who has slipped or has higher signing demands. The Blue Jays and Mets have a strong relationship and the GMs and their assistants know the opposition well. My bet is that the Jays will have a good sense who the Mets will select and can play around a bit at #9. The slot recommendation is $200,000 different between the #9 and #11 pick and the Jays could stand to get two very good players and save some money for later rounds if they choose to do so. It is risky, though, because leaving someone like Toussaint or Turner on the board could mean the Mets grab them.

The other method would be taking the best player on the board both times. This could get expensive for Toronto but truly is the best strategy for building a good system, especially for the Blue Jays who have some holes in their farm system at the moment. 

The Jays could also try to do the opposite of the first method mentioned if a player falls to them at #9. This seems to happen every year and if Toronto sees Alex Jackson, a Boras client, or control artist Aaron Nola still on the board, they could go over slot to get them and then draft someone like Hoffman at #11 and save money that way. 

I envy the Blue Jays. This is a deep draft and missing out on Phil Bickford last year means they get a shot at a much better player this year. My guess is that the Jays have a few targets in mind: Nick Gordon, Jacob Gatewood, Trea Turner as Jose Reyes heirs, Touki Toussaint, Grant Holmes, Kyle Freeland for rotation support, and Bradley Zimmer and Michael Conforto for outfield help. They could also look at catcher Max Pentecost, as he would be good value at #9 or #11 and help a weak position. 

The Blue Jays stay pretty tight-lipped about their draft plans and the only player I have seen them tied to is HS RHP Touki Toussaint, an absurdly talented Florida youngster born in Haiti. TT has control issues and would be a bit of a lottery ticket and project, but has some of the best "stuff" in the class. The Blue Jays like him, but they also know that the Mets probably will not draft him. I look at that and think, "Okay, they're going to get their guy at #9 knowing Toussaint will be there at #11" and that is a great position to be in. 

Projection: 

#9- SS Trea Turner
#10- LHP Sean Newcomb
#11- RHP Touki Toussaint

I am starting to think Zimmer might be off the board at this point. Newcomb is the next on DePo's chart. 

Leave your thoughts in the comments below. 

-SG

2 comments:

Steve from Norfolk said...

Please, God, let the Jays draft a pitcher first! Getting Turner would be like Christmas morning in June.

Stephen Guilbert said...

His defense is fine, Rene. I've seen him play plenty and he probably won't but he could win a gold glove. He's not Simmons, but he's very very good out there. I do hope Newcomb is available, too, though. I'd love either one.