Tom Brennan - Riding The Rapids

Coming Later Today –  

                                                           

        9 30 am – Herb G – Minor League Report

        11 00 am – UPDATED - Pick 26 (775) - C  Tommy Pincin - Upland (CA) High School

         2 00 pm - SIGNED - Pick 27 - (805) - RHP Alex Palsha - Sacramento State (CA)

         5 00 pm - 2015 Draft Profile  -  C/1B  -  Chris Betts  -  Wilson (CA) HS - updated 6-5

RIDING THE RAPIDS     by Tom Brennan

You ever see one of those action flicks where the guys are in a raft and they're riding some surging rapids, and the waterfall's up ahead, and it is a big one, and they know it is up ahead but they're not too sure how soon they get to it, and there is a point of safe passage but they gotta catch it just right?

Kind of what it is like for the baseball prospects that aren't the elites.  You know the Harveys, Wheelers, Syndergaards and d'Arnauds are elites - it's an easy ride to major league success, right? 

OK, not so easy, even for the elites. But other guys, well that navigating the rapids stuff can have its pitfalls.  How well can they paddle? How long before the falls show up?  Gonna make it?

Let's check out a few of our “rafters” and see how their journey's coming.  (As Yogi might say, “You ain’t made it until you made it.”)

Dominic Smith, turning 19 on the day this likely gets posted (happy birthday, Dom) is a Master Navigator.  Why?  Well, at his extremely young age for full-season A ball, he gets on base well, does not strike out much, hits lefties decently and without high Ks...and weathered the rapids of a season-opening slump very nicely. Power is missing in action, but his raft is sailing in pretty calm waters, so he has plenty of time to refine his navigation as he charts his course through higher levels.  We may see him at Citi within 3 years, but he has plenty of time to “row the boat ashore, halleluia!”

Our next boating enthusiast, Jeff McNeill? 3 years the elder of Mr. Smith, and playing on the same mid A team, so less time chronologically to course-correct, but he is in fact navigating beautifully.  In Savannah, he is hitting great (“check”), lots of extra base hits and steals (more homer pop would be nice, but “check”), and is tearing up lefties as a lefty hitter (huge “check”). Low Ks too (“check”). He also has been super consistent, no slumps.  He’s coming fast and smooth, one to watch.  Raft on, dude!

LJ Mazzilli?  In Savannah, he is red hot, showing surprising power and average since May started.  He’s 11 of 12 in steals, so he like McNeil are excellent burglars. I needed help on LJ…so I asked my resident Australian expert, Michael, an avid Met fan since birth, med school student - and nephew. Michael had also noted the surge - but astutely noted also the somewhat advanced age (24 after the season) to just be in mid-A.  Always smart, that Michael.  That time clock gives LJ little room should he navigate off course.  LJ also is kind of high in strikeouts, a warning sign.  And decent but not great against righty pitchers – who only get a lot better at each level.  So, LJ’s future rafting journey will not be an easy one, but Mazzilli is clearly paddling furiously.  Go for it, LJ.  And may the course be with you.

Other rafters, like Taijeron, Lawley, Vaughn, Nieuwenhuis, Lutz and Dykstra (and even a fave of mine currently guzzling a cup of big league Joe, Matt den Dekker) are all hitting big K shaped boulders, and their rafts are getting perilously close to the falls. Only Dykstra of all of them seems to show real progress this year in hitting less and less “K Rocks” in 2014.  Most of these guys hit far worse against same side pitchers than opposite side pitchers.  And their average age is over 26, so the journey may be stalling for them - running out of time?  Some (relatively) older boaters, like Eric Campbell, do in fact get the knack, and against the odds make it to Met Pier 25.  Way to go, Eric.  That’s where the money is.

Some rafters were on a promising path, but their rafts are taking on water and going in circles in 2014.  Puello and Tapia (the hardest-throwing, low K pitcher I know of), but they are both young, and have time to start moving downstream again.

Sometimes, it is harder to raft in a crowd. Or when elite boaters are gaining on you. Danny Muno has rafted well since signing, except for the PED wipeout in 2012, and is paddling hard in Vegas.  But lots of middle infielders are paddling furiously behind him, including LJ, Reynolds, McNeil, Herrera and others.  So he gotta paddle faster, or get lost in their wake.  Don't forget the life preserver, Danny.

Matt Reynolds lost his oar last year and appeared in dead water, going nowhere.  This year, he must have put an outboard motor on his dinghy, hitting .370 in AA. Needs a little more extra base power out of that outboard, though.  Boat on, my man!   

I could go on, but suffice it to say, the boating can be extremely hazardous.  Relatively few hitters avoid the falls, but we got some master boaters out there, and I am pulling for them.  Once they make it, life is good.

P.S. Leathersich and Akeel Morris are clearly navigating in speed boats.

Weigh in, mates...who are your favorite rapids-riders?