This is part the final edition of a 4-part series analyzing which players on each minor league affiliate looks like a future 25-man regular for the Mets. Today we look at the Mets Triple-A affiliate, the Las Vegas 51s. Triple-A is always interesting, as there are a combination of guys who can fill in adequately if an injury occurs but are not good enough to keep on a 40-man roster, and the prospects closest to the majors. Before we continue, here is the process:
Every organization has three types of minor leaguers:
1.) Prospects the team hopes and intends on being starters on a winning team.
2.) Regular role-players, bench pieces, bullpen specialists.
3.) Organizational filler.
Within Category 1, we have trade bait: a luxury most teams want and few have. Within Category 3, there is also the “lottery pick”. This is the guy drafted, signed, or traded for who doesn’t quite fit into any of the categories and could end up anywhere from all-star to flameout. There are also players who bounce between the majors and minors.
I want to examine who, level by level, in the Mets system, fall into either category 1 or 2. I am not interested in the Cat 3 guys.
Las Vegas
Category 1:
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| Thor. As Thor. |
RHP Noah Syndergaard
Despite the injuries, inconsistency and performance this year, this is an elite prospect who should be a very good major leaguer very soon.
RHP Rafael Montero
Despite the injuries, inconsistency and performance this year, this is an elite prospect who should be a very good major league very soon.
IF Wilmer Flores
Flores needs a change of scenery. Short of the Mets trading Daniel Murphy and needing a one-year stopgap before Dilson Herrera is ready, Flores has no spot on this team and he has done far too little with the opportunities he has had. The idea that Flores could be a shortstop need to stop. Seriously. He is barely adequate enough to be a second or third baseman and both positions are occupied. Still, this is a very good hitter with some power, a great batting eye, and extremely quick hands. Some team will use him as a second baseman or, at worst, utility infielder. There is also a chance he will hit enough to be a first baseman, which his glove might require eventually. Either way, absolutely a future major league regular.
C Kevin Plawecki
I am very glad Plawecki made it on to a few mid-season top 50 prospect lists. He is a good game-caller, a steady albeit unspectacular defender, and a very good hitter. Plawecki has always been an excellent contact hitter but it has been the rapid ascension through the system and the progression of his power that have taken him from "The next Josh Thole" to "This guy will force the Mets to decide who their future catcher is going to be". He has yet to hit much in Las Vegas but is still taking his walks and has clocked a homer already, giving him seven for the year. My favorite stat of Plawecki's: He has struck out just 31 times in 263 at bats. That is fantastic.
OF Cesar Puello
I have changed my tune too many times with this guy simply based on how he is performing at the time. It is my version of "what have you done for me lately?" That ends here. I got on the Puello train last year when he finally showed me the elite bat, the power-speed combination, and the hit tool I had been waiting for. A slow start this year is not going to change my opinion. He is still just 23 and has started to come around in Triple-A. There is an odd relationship with Puello and the Mets as he has inexplicably lost playing time despite no other more talented outfielders on the Vegas squad. One of the improvements I like in an otherwise down season is an increase in his walk rate, walking 20 times already in 200 at bats. In 2012, he walked only 7 (!) times in 226 at bats. The change in approach might be leading to the decrease in hits, but I am fine with that if he rounds out his game. He also has a cannon for an arm and is very athletic in the outfield, despite his size (6'2", 220 lbs). Puello will be a major league regular for at least a few years with some team. I do hope it is the Mets, although I am not sure how he fits into their plans.
Category 2
Las Vegas is tough with Cat 2/Cat 3 guys because unless you are a Cat 1 guy, you are probably a player who will sit there for years until someone gets hurt or traded. You will not be on the 40-man roster and you will not be selected in the Rule-V draft. This is the Darin Gorskis of the world and as much as I like John Church, Erik Goeddel, and Logan Verrett, among others, I cannot help but think they are all in the category.
RHP Matt Bowman
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| Matt Bowman modeled his delivery off of Tim Lincecum. |
While his future role is uncertain, the Princeton grad with a plethora of pitches and as intellectual an approach to pitching as anyone you will encounter, I do see a major leaguer here. He could be a back-end rotation guy, trade bait, or a solid reliever. I like this kid a lot and he has moved through the system quickly. A very nice mid-round draft pick by the Alderson administration.
CF Matt den Dekker
Man have injuries derailed this guy. Power/speed combo with contact issues but one of the better outfield gloves in baseball. Some team will find a spot for this guy. I cannot help but think a second-division team without a current elite defensive CF (like the Mets currently have) are not drooling over the availability of MdD and the low price tag it would take to get him. I like Matt den Dekker quite a bit but he is yet another player I hope gets a chance elsewhere. The only other alternative is making him a 4th outfielder and he would be a very very good one at that but I also think it is a bit unfair to him and his talent. Then again, winning teams sometimes have to do that and I want the Mets to win.
IF Matt Reynolds
I will be honest, I was not a huge fan of this pick. Reynolds has proven me wrong and has done nothing but hit this season. He has impressed everyone who has watched him and I would be silly not to think he can at least be a utility guy at the next level. If he hits like this, he will be much more. The Mets will have to find a spot for him eventually, but that bridge will be crossed when we get there.
There are a few who are unclassifiable because of major league time (Germen, Rice, Quintanilla, Satin).
That is all I have. Many will question the exclusion of the following players, and some might turn into major league regulars.
Logan Verrett
John Church
Zack Thornton
Cory Vaughn
Juan Centeno
Jeff Walters
Chase Bradford
Erik Goeddel
Darin Gorski
Tyler Pill
Jeff Walters
Danny Muno
Andrew Brown
I especially find hope with Centeno (backup catcher) and Walters (middle relief) but understand that I do have to differentiate the players I want on a winning team, and those who have the talent to play in the majors. All of the above guys do. However, Triple-A is full of those players and none jump out to me as impact players, or merely consistent or talented enough to be regular contributors or role-players. For now, they are all off, but do not be shocked if a few of them make a future Mets team for a couple years.
Category 1: 5 players
Category 2: 3 players
Despite Binghamton's impressive group of athletes, I think Vegas has it beat. The Mets system is very good and it is very deep. Make no mistake. I am critical of minor leaguers because I (and the Mets) have been burned so many times by prospects. My optimism about this system should be taken as a testament to how strong it is.
Check back on Monday for an interview I will do with Mack to see if we can identify any rookie league players who look like future major leaguers.
--SG
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