Tom Brennan - METS' MASH UNIT
Joel Sherman wrote an interesting article in the Post on January 15, noting what we all who follow the Mets closely know intuitively: how far this 2017 team goes depends on how healthy it is.
Simply put, in 2016, Granderson was the closest the Mets got to Cal Ripken, with 150 games. He, Cespedes, Duda, Wright, Walker, Cabrera and d'Arnaud, representing 7 of their 8 would-be starting 9 heading into 2016, averaged only 99 games played. That's an average of 39% of games missed. Love those sick day benefits. Heck, the sputtering Al de Aza got in only 2 less games than Cespedes' 132. Three back surgeries in one infield in a season is undoubtedly a major league record. Other guys (Reyes, Flores) got hurt too.
Pitching-wise, the vaunted starting 5 (Thor, Jake, Steve, Matt, and Zach) got to start only 92 or 93 games - so they did not start 43% of 2016's games, a lot due to Zach's zero starts, of course.
Colon got (thankfully) to start a bunch of the others, while Lugo and Gsellman primarily got most of the rest - and those 2 saved the season for them by starting really, really well. Wheeler (as noted) got zero, Harvey just 17, and 4 of the 5 had arm surgery since the last time they pitched.
Good news? Team depth on a still-not-quite-settled roster looks better (perhaps a lot better) to me starting 2017 than it did at the start of 2016. Even without Fat Bart. And early reports on our starters' health seem very hopeful.
So??? Hope for a heathy squad, but don't take it for granted that it will be. If that 99 games played per offensive guy can jump to 125, we're in great shape. If our 5 top starters can give us 125 combined starts, ditto.
Just as, if not more, important, may the health of you, the fine readers and writers of Mack's Mets, be excellent in 2017.
May each of you not miss a start.
12 comments:
The roster is unsettled. I am fully convinced Wilmer Flores will be traded for a middle reliever before the season starts. You don't piss off Sandy Alderson without repercussions. Ask Justin Turner.
Then Flores will hit 30 in a season somewhere else. So...if he does go in a deal, get value back for him. Why Sandy would be pissed over Wilmer's attempt to earn this year what is still major league chump change would frankly puzzle me. But Sandy did trade him in 2015...almost...so why not again.
He was offered Ruben Tejada money despite the fact that in about half as many ABs he's hit nearly quadruple the number of home runs, equaled the number of RBIs, hit for a slightly higher batting average and is actually wanted by a major league team (unlike Chase Utley's tackling dummy).
Flores was a dummy for his nonathletic, season-ending duck-dive into the catcher. Two dummies.
I agree with Reese. Alderson is Trump. Wilmer is toast.
As for injuries, I've gotten used to them. What I haven't gotten used to is the lack of developed players in AAA/AA to fill in.
To SOME extent I can see Alderson's rationale if he can turn a $2 million salary in a position not of great need (with Rivera, Cecchini and others possibly waiting as backups at minimum wage) into a serviceable bullpen arm, but Wilmer never got a full time shot here and likely never will so if he can turn into another asset and satisfy Alderson's vindictiveness at the same time, so be it.
Reese, I agree: Wilmer is surplus...just don't give him away. I think he could be a big hitter for a second division team with friendly fences. He seems to hit a bunch of to-the-wall shots.
Mack, I agree - this team has to draft hitters better. Hopefully, Alonso and Lindsay (and Mazelka?) fit that bill in a year or so.
Wilmer Flores is still only....25 yrs old?
Consider what his production has been.
Then think of all the roadblocks and hurdles he has endured just to get regular playing time.
Now think if what he could accomplish with a starting position at possibly 3rd base.
Don't trade away that potential.
Especially not for a bullpen arm.
Perhaps it is better to replace the decision makers that are holding him back.
Bob, good point - he is not the best athlete in the field or on the base paths, but the concern that the bat could explode is one to not overlook.
Guys -
Wilmer is sick of being a sub. He is done with it and sees no future with the Mets as a starter.
Can not blame him for taking the team that traded him once aleready to arbitration.
Wilmer has to have sleepless nights wondering how he would do if given 550 at bats - I think he'd do pretty darned good.
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