HOME IS NOT ALWAYS "HOME SWEET HOME"
Ask any fan before the 2019 season to rank each of the following ballparks in terms of favorability to hitters?
Philly, San Diego, and Citifield
I think you'd get this ranking:
1) Philly
2 & 3) San Diego and Citifield tied for a distant 3rd
Did that ranking list bear out in the output of each team's big sluggers?
You analyze the following data and tell me:
BRYCE HARPER:
Home: .264/.387/.552
Road: .256/.357/.467
MANNY MACHADO:
Home: .219/.297/.406
Road: .289/.369/.513
PETE ALONSO:
Home: .218/.335/.553
Road: .297/.379/.610
What's that you say? Not good with numbers?
Can't figure it out?
OK, I'll answer for you - here's the official ranking of easiest to worst hitting parks, based on hitter performance:
1) Philly
2 & 3) San Diego and Citifield tied for a distant 3rd
Manny and Pete are remarkably worse at home, in their tough parks.
Smart Bryce knew that if he was to ever make the Hall of Fame, he needed to hit in an easy home park - and he got it.
He had by far the worst road stats of these 2 boppers - but also, by far, the best home stats.
Smart indeed.
He had by far the worst road stats of these 2 boppers - but also, by far, the best home stats.
Smart indeed.
Because missing being on the 2019 World Series champ Nats team hurts - but his path to the Hall of Fame goes right thru Philly's bandbox ballpark.
Pete Alonso could be a future Hall of Famer, too - so it behooves the Mets to figure ou tif playing at Citifield is a real impediment to that.
7 comments:
No comments? Must be a symptom of Daylight Standard Time.
Tom, the Mets have been trying to figure out how to hit at Citi Field since they opened it in 2009. They built a big spacious ball park and instead of filling the team with players with good speed that fit the ballpark, Sandy came and filled it with power players like Duda and Granderson. They moved the fences in twice, no luck. Then, in 2018 Jeff McNeil came up and showed everyone how to hit at Citi Field hitting .388 in 98 at bats there. What did Brodie do? Trade for a 2nd baseman with leg problems with 120M left on a contract that demoted Jeff to a utility role. Heck, he almost even threw McNeil in the Cano/Diaz trade! In 2019, McNeil followed up his 2018 Citi Field stats by hitting .310 in 242 at bats. Also in 2019, JD Davis had the best year in Citi Field’s 11 year history hitting .354 with 16 HRs and 33 RBIs in 206 at bats. Now the Mets are talking about trading JD Davis.
Maybe if the Mets paid attention about who hits well at Citi Field and built a team around them they would finally have home field advantage.
John, it's like that song verse, "once you have found her, never let her go." Once you've found a hitter who can rake at Citifield, never let him go.
But someone ought to quietly, outside of the media glare, sit down with Pete and see if he has thoughts on why he hit much less at home than on the road. Or, if they don't want to take a chance to mess with his head, analyze the crap out of why - go game by game - see if it has to do with dimensions (which could still be shaved a little bit - I made suggestions in an article several months ago) or with the fan base's displeasure with the Mets not winning, and Pete putting too much pressure on himself - the solution to which would be "plan acquisitions based on targeting the assemblage of a 100 win team".
While Pete hit 80 points lower at Citi than on the road, Aaron Judge in his career? His home field advantage is overwhelming:
.315/.433/.647 home. .233/.355/.472 away. A gargantuan difference.
Was 2019 a home field fluke for Pete, or can something be done to fix it?
Good questions Tom. We will see how he adjusts in the future. He hit more HR at home with 6 less RBIs at home. 13 more K's at home (98-85). His BA on balls in play also was much better on the road .217 at home vs. .330 on the road. .989 OPS on the road vs. .888 at home. Did not see an answer there.
Then I looked at the hit trajectory BA for Alonso, McNeil and Davis. It gives BA against ground balls, fly balls, and line drives. Obviously all three have high averages on line drives but Alonso has a .340 BA on Fly Balls and .235 on ground balls, McNeil .286 on ground balls and .240 on fly balls. JD Davis .283 on ground balls and .282 on fly balls. It could mean that if you want to have hitters who hit well at Citi Field get guys with high BA on ground balls.
But Pete hit 27 homers at Citi Field. I think we can live with his lower home BA to get those 27 homers as long as you have guys like McNeil and JD Davis around him.
John, to summarize from my old, latest "fix-the-dimensions" article:
I'd curve the CF fence and make it 400 or 402, rather than straight across 408. I would eliminate the outward dip in the Mets bullpen.
And I'd bring the fences in at the corners by about 15 feet. Now 335 and 330 - make them 318.
Doing the latter would, for instance, have had one just-foul Alonso grand slam to have been fair instead.
And I would raise the height of the foul pole, since he hit that ball much higher than the top of the pole.
They should have kept the same dimensions of Shea, 338 down the line, 371 and 396 in the alleys, 410 in Center. I would get players that fit the stadium and try to go from there.
John, those old Shea dimensions are too big for Pete and Jeff. The offense is almost always lower for Mets hitters at home than on the road, and that would make it worse.
Reality is that they will not change it again - unless the analytics department figures out that it would lead to more wins. This is what I wrote 2 years ago about it:
A) METS HOME FIELD DISADVANTAGE
I often wonder if the Met have a home field disadvantage.
And if so, what the reasons for it are.
The old adage is to win a pennant, you should win 2/3 of your games at home, half on the road. Based on that, you'd go 54-27 at home, 41-40 on the road, and end up at 95-67. Good enough to win the pennant most of the time.
Well, in the 2011-17 stretch of nearly 7 full seasons, the Mets are in fact playing .500 ball on the road - 272 wins and 273 losses through Sunday, August 20.
Mission accomplished on the road.
So are they winning 2/3 of their home games? Hardly.
In fact, from 2011-17, they are a starling 23 games under .500 at home, at 263-286.
Winning two thirds of 489 home games would result in 326 wins, or 63 more wins than the Mets have accomplished, or roughly 10 wins short at home every season and 10 extra losses.
That, for those not mathematically inclined, is the difference between an 80-82 team and a 90-72 team. Big difference.
How about the Yanks over the same period?
If you asked yourself, "Do the Yanks have a home field advantage?", you would immediately answer "Absolutely" - and you would be absolutely right.
The Mets over the past 7 years on the road are 272-273; the Yanks a nearly identical 278-274.
At home, the Mets are 263-286 (.479), while the Yanks are a vastly superior 320-223 (.589).
I am not a statistician, but the comparative home vs. road differences of the two teams are EXTREMELY statistically significant. Not just a series of events that cumulatively one can explain away. Playing at Citifield is a Mets disadvantage.
It's, I postulate, why the Mets infrequently make the playoffs.
My guess is that the Mets home vs. away differential over those 7 years is the worst in all of baseball.
Disadvantage indeed.
So this is your chance.
I am asking you, the avid and highly concerned Mets reader, to think about this, and offer thoughts as why the Mets have a severe home field disadvantage over such a length of time and share it in response to this article.
B) METS HOME FIELD DISADVANTAGE V. 2
Yesterday, I wrote about the Mets' sickening home field disadvantage, looking at home and away wins from 2011 to present. Offensive disparities home vs. away are a key component.
Most clubs' hitters love hitting at home. Stats show the Mets dread it - see below. I'd like your thoughts as to why hitting at home is drastically worse than on the road for this franchise. In all but one season, ranked 25th or worse in hitting at home, worst in all of baseball in 3 of those 7 years. But average rank on the road? NINTH!!
2017:
Home: 30th in hitting (.232); 4.14 runs per game; 81 homers
Away: 3rd in hitting (.263); 5.18 runs per game; 104 homers
2016:
Home: 26th in hitting (.239); 4.18 runs per game; 112 homers
Away: 14th in hitting (.253); 4.10 runs per game; 106 homers
2015:
Home: 30th in hitting (.233); 3.86 runs per game; 85 homers
Away: 9th in hitting (.255); 4.56 runs per game; 92 homers
2014:
Home: 30th in hitting (.224); 3.53 runs per game; 59 homers
Away: 8th in hitting (.252); 4.23 runs per game; 66 homers
2013:
Home: 30th in hitting (.219); 3.30 runs per game; 59 homers
Away: 14th in hitting (.254); 4.33 runs per game; 71 homers
2012:
Home: 25th in hitting (.242); 3.54 runs per game; 67 homers
Away: 9th in hitting (.256); 4.48 runs per game; 72 homers
2011:
Home: 10th in hitting (.262); 4.04 runs per game; 50 homers
Away: 5th in hitting (.265); 4.81 runs per game; 58 homers
Averages 2011 – 2017:
Home: 26th in hitting; 3.78 runs per game; 76 homers
Away: 9th in hitting; 4.51 runs per game; 84 homers
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