FOR BETTER...OR FOR WORSE.
I think if you polled 1,000 Mets fans, 1,000 Mets fans would say the Mets roster is ALREADY better than the one that competed(?) in 2020.
OK, 999 out of 1,000...there's always a contrarian somewhere.
The Mets are clearly better going into 2021.
Where are they better?
Offensively, even thought they were good in 2020, I expect Pete Alonso to bounce back, and the bats of Francisco Lindor and James McCann are upgrades.
Defensively? Lindor and McCann make the defense better.
Pitching, though?
Despite strong 2020 starter efforts from Jacob DeGrom and David Peterson, the combined starters in 60 starts were a ghastly 13-22, 5.37 ERA. Unbelievably bad, frankly.
With Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, and Joey Lucchesi, and the mid-season (or earlier) return of Noah Syndergaard (and subtraction of Steve Matz, Porcello and Wacha and their combined 2-16 record from 2020) should make the starters seriously better already - with further improvement to the starter contingent likely in the weeks ahead (make sure to read on below).
The overall starter ERA goal, to me, should be 3.50 or less. What an improvement that would be.
Relievers? Despite a mostly stellar 2020 from Edwin Diaz, the relievers were 13-12, 4.60 ERA, with 11 of 18 saves. Trevor May and Aaron Loup improve the pen, but more is needed to be done to bring this contingent below a 4.00 ERA, where it belongs.
Conclusion? Pen, rotation and offense collectively should be substantially better already. Sandy needs to finish the extreme makeover.
Trevor Bauer? Before I go, I keep hearing Trevor Bauer only did it over a 60 game schedule in 2020. For a fuller picture, I added in his playoffs to get him to 81 innings, 43 hits, 115 Ks.
Then I thought, what about spring training? For instance, Joey Lucchesi (who says his arm now feels great) not only had a brief, bad 2020, he got scalded in spring training too. They say spring training is meaningless, but it can be a supporting indicator at times.
Bauer? In 2020, 3 "spring" outings, 9 innings, 3 hits, 1 run.
So that, all-told, is a not-insignificant 90 Bauer innings of just 46 hits-allowed baseball in 2020, and a microscopic ERA.
Only a hit every 2 innings.
Jacob deGrom, in his amazing 1.70 ERA Cy Young season, allowed 152 hits in 217 innings, a still great but far higher rate.
At Bauer's 2020 hits-allowed rate, Jake would have allowed 42 fewer hits in his 217 innings in the most dominant year of Jake's career.
Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA stunner in 1968? He allowed a terrific, but much-higher-than-Bauer rate of hits when he gave up 198 hits in 305 IP that season.
Sandy Koufax's best year of hits per inning was 216 hits allowed in 336 innings in 1965. Incredibly good, but if he allowed hits at Bauer's 2020 rate, he would have allowed nearly 50 fewer hits.
The only pitcher that I can ever recall who was as stingy with hits per inning as Bauer (and he did it over a 2 year period) was Craig Kimbrel; Kimbrel allowed just 64 hits in 131 innings in 2017 and 2018. Play word association at the time and say "Kimbrel" and you'd likely respond "Beast."
Can Bauer be a 2021 BEAST and come close to replicating his stunning 2020 stinginess in 2021? I don't know. Probably not that dominant. But what he did in hits per inning in 2020 was utterly amazing.
Since it is Steve Cohen's $$, if he wants to spend it on Bauer, do you have an issue with adding a guy who in 90 innings allowed 46 hits and fanned 124 and gave up an occasional run?
I just hope Bauer, if he becomes a Met, follows GM Kevin Costner's advice in the movie Draft Day to his draft target Chadwick Boseman, "For G..d's sake, just stop tweeting."
10 comments:
Nobody around here seems to care, Trevor. Enjoy LA.
My rule of thumb has been to not make too much out of any 2020 COVID-season stats.
Conforto is not that good, Alonso is not (I hope) that godawful.
Bauer's numbers in 2020 were when he pitched entirely against the NL Central. That's it. And he was on an amazing roll.
Not ready to roll out the Gibson/Martinez comparisons.
For me, there are just too many red flags blowing for this to be the guy.
Sandy uncharacteristically went out of his way to praise him in his first press conference. He seems to really believe in Bauer.
And I can live with that, and hope, if such a thing comes to pass. So long as Sandy also believes in TEAM DEFENSE (it's still a bad group, overall), and the BULLPEN (also, not much improved). In the past, those have been two blind spots for Mr. Anderson (along with, you know, building a decent farm system and, yeah, winning games). Add Bauer and address those things? Sure, okay.
But again, would not have been my plan. It's all those damn red flags.
Jimmy
Jimmy, I'm with you on Bauer in this sense: if he wants too many year and too much money, the downside risk is certainly there big-time. If I were the billionaire owning this team, I might well pass. Heck, almost everybody is.
And he is no Jake, personality-wise. But Cohen may feel adding Bauer vaults him into being a top World Series contender along with the Dodgers.
If Bauer were "2020" right in 2021, the chance of this being an absolute killer starting pitching staff is certainly right there. Very tempting.
And yep, I agree that Conforto being as good as he was in 2021, and Pete being as bad as he was in 2020 again, are both quite unlikely, not to jinx Conforto.
I LOVE the offense of Nimmo, Conforto, and Smith a lot - and would be fine with a Marisnick to play 50 (?) starts against lefties, giving each of the 3 about 15 or so game starts off to stay fresh. Against righty pitching, I am OK with the 3 Lefties, and their combined lousy defense, because their offense combined is so good.
Tom all great points but I wish he had a better track record. That’s why I wouldn’t offer him more than what Wheeler received last year. Wheelers numbers over his two past seasons I believe were better and more consistent than Bauer’s. We also know that Wheeler could pitch in NY, which also goes along way, considering Bauer is more outspoken than Wheeler ever was. So if we can get Bauer’s for $23 a year for 5 years than I am all in to get him. If not for get it.
Actually you can offer him $23 a year and give him options to gain another $10 per year if he his certain incentives?
Zozo, we'll see how much he gets and who gets him and for how long. We know someone will.
I feel that when people say that, Zozo, it's the same as passing on the guy. Why pretend you want him. I can say that I want a Corvette, but only at $25K. What's the point?
He's not signing a Wheeler contract. An agent establishes those guidelines, much like listing a house for sail.
Sure, you can come in with a lowball offer, but that only makes your team look like garbage -- and it's unnecessarily insulting to the player. Staying with the house metaphor, if it sits on the market for a long time, and you sense desperation, yes, you can make that low offer. I think that might be happening with Bradley.
Bauer will get paid.
Sorry, that above comment was from me.
Tom, yes, I have that same feeling: If Bauer even approached his 2020 performance, that rotation is pretty crazy.
I'd rather fix the bullpen, bolster the defense, and add a medium-level starter.
So much risk involved in Bauer.
Jimmy
Jimmy, anything more than 3 Bauer year contract would scare me.
Jimmy, anything more than 3 Bauer year contract would scare me.
Would have responded sooner but for shoveling a lot of very heavy snow. Yuk.
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