Good morning.
Now that both the prep and college seasons are underway, we are beginning to weed out some of the players that were once picked in the top 10 players going in this draft.
Examples would be Texas RHP Ty Madden and LSU RHP Jaden Hill. Madden has been erratic throughout the season while Hill went down with a season ending injury.
Others like Louisville catcher Henry Davis and Vanderbilt RHP Jack Leiter have secured their place in the coverted, big money level of the top 10 picks.
Here’s my top 10… as of right now:
1.1 - RHP Jack Leiter Vanderbilt
It is simply unbelievable What Leiter is doing this year for The Vandy Boys. There is a good chance that he could produce the best stat line in the history of college baseball. His perfect delivery puts him clearly ahead of his teammate, who comes in at number two.
1.2 - RHP Kumar Rocker Vanderbilt
It’s pretty sad when you are undefeated during the season and producing an ERA under 1.00, and you are considered only the second best pitcher on the team. This is the case of Rocker, who started the season as the clear favorite for the first pick until Leiter came along and took it away from him. No problem though. Both will be very rich men in 2021.
1.3 - SS Jordan Lawler Dallas Jesuit HS (TX)
Lawler remains at the top of the class of a very talented group of shortstops that are eligible for this draft. Some feel he could go 1.1 in this draft due to his very talented prep bat to go along with superior defense. I love him here behind the Vandy Boys.
1.4 - C Henry Davis Louisville
No one has climbed up the charts more than Davis, who I had hoped would still be on the board when we picked at 1.10. He now is both the top catcher and power bat in the draft. There is no chance he will fall to us.
1.5 - SS Marcello Mayer Eastlake HS (CA)
The talent level between Lawler and Mayer is very thin, though he seems to be developing pop quicker than Lawler is right now. ++ defender and power arm and projected to stick at short. A projected future all-star in this game.
1.6 - SS Matt McLain UCLA
I am predicting a string of shortstop picks early in this draft. We have seen this before when teams pick someone that looks to be being picked earlier than they should be. Simply put, they are picked before they should be because a team is afraid they will never get the chance to draft a quality player at that position.
Such is the case with McLain, who is the last of the top tier shortstops in this draft. There are plenty of pitchers and outfielders left in this draft that a team can pick in the second round.
McLain is easily the most advanced shortstop bat, though he did get off to a slow start this season. Now batting close to .300.
1.7 - OF James Wood IMG Academy (FL)
Now I go out of the box…
Normally, by now, I would be picking right hand pitchers, but the creme de la creme of power bats are starting to run out and I believe Wood is going to be picked earlier than he would normally slot.
Still, this is one hell of a bat. Wood is all raw power that will, IMHO, develop into one of the best power bats in baseball someday. Excellent speed. Plays center now but is projected to move to right when he makes the majors.
Another one that got away from us.
1.8 - RHP Gunnar Hoglund Ole Miss
Hoglund becomes the third right hander picked here, mainly due to the fact that others like Hill and Hadden fell out of the top 10.
In his first seven starts this year, Hoglund produced 70 strikeouts in 43.2 innings pitched. He is an underrated power pitcher that would be an asset to any team that drafted him.
1.9 - C Adrian Del Castillo Miami
Henry Davis might have dethroned Del Castillo as the top catcher in the draft, but he is still in the top 10 and just out of our reach at nine.
Del Castillo’s bat has really come alive lately and I expect him to do an impressive job for the Hurricanes in the playoffs. He can catch, he can throw, and he can hit balls against walls.
No, he doesn’t do windows.
And now we are up at 1.10.
There still is plenty to pick from here… right handers Jackson Jobe and Andrew Painter… catcher Harry Ford… SS/3B Brady House… and outfielders Sal Frelick, Ethan Wilson, and Jud Fabian.
But I’m going with the hot lefty…
1.10 - LHP Steve Haijar Michigan
Michigan got off to a slow start this year due to COVID restrictions, but Haijar is leading them as the Friday night starter.
You have to love a power 6-7 lefty with three + pitchers, one of which is a 95+ fastball. He is projected to be major league ready in less than three years which would make him eligible for opening day 2025 at the latest.
His stats are good go far this year (thru 4/10: 6-ST, 1-0, 2.80, 35.1-IP, 42-K) but I expect them to get even better as the Michigan air warms up.
Imagine a 6-7 lefty in a rotation with Matt Allan and JT Ginn?
***Bonus***
One of our readers, and ex-writer, 'Eddie From Corona' asked me to extend this list to my top 15, so he could see who I had just missing the boat.
Here goes...
1.11 - Sal Frelick OF Boston College
Frelick has been tearing up the balls thrown to him this year and he has risen to be a genuine first round pick, but I passed on him because of his 5-9 size.
1.12 - Jackson Jobe RHP Heritage Hall HS (OK)
Jobe has it all, but his bread and butter pitch is his slider, which has an elite 3000-3250 RPM with 2 plane tilt. Only downside is his 6-2 height.
1.13 - Andrew Painter RHP Calvary Christian Academy (FL)
Painter continues to be a personal favorite of mine, but I have to follow what I believe was the 'best player available. That's why I chose Haijar over The Paint Man.
1.14 - Jud Fabian OF Florida
Fabian's bat has been miserable this month. He went 1-24 in a stretch, with 17 strikeouts. He's too good of a hitter to continue this way, but, right now, he's not a top 10 pick.
1.15 - Brady House SS Winder-Barrow HS (GA)
He is considered one of the top five shortstops in this draft, but his lack of speed and his tendency to strikeout too much has him last on that list. Still, a solid pick at 1.15.
12 comments:
Mack, a very digestible breakdown. Makes a lot of sense. I like the idea of the tall, hard throwing lefty, if we cannot have the crown jewels above the 10 slot.
Much harder to predict, but it would be interesting to see who you think might be the top 15 or so in the second round and who you would hope we'd get with that pick. I don't know how many extra picks there are before the second round starts.
I have a post coming up on Thursday that has my thoughts on 3 options in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round.
Good. When does the draft start this year? How all that works with the slimmed-down minors will be something to watch.
May
Mack,
The great unknowable about Draft Picks, for me, is how players would be coached and developed by different organizations.
For example, you think that instead of John Stearns, we could have had Dave Winfield or Robin Yount. But would they have had the same careers with the Mets? We don't really know that answer.
In most cases, we'd like to think that a player's talent and makeup would help them succeed anywhere, with any organization. So maybe it's more pronounced in those marginal guys.
You look at today's game, the unreliability of relievers, combined with their increased expense and importance, and it's clear -- to me, at least -- that the wisest course would be to develop your own relievers in the farm system.
Look at the Mets. What quality relievers have we developed since Familia? There's Lugo. And . . . anyone else? Whereas the Braves, without me doing any research, seem to constantly bringing up a variety of fresh, cheap, hard-throwers.
I don't think that's necessarily because they drafted better.
One team's flop might have been a solid pick for another team.
Thoughts, Mack?
Jimmy
Jimmy
I could write a book on the players the Mets screwed up in the pioeline.
Mack, thanks for this article and clearly laying out the top 15 picks with your thoughts.
Stearns was a Philly draft pick.
Good catch, RDS, thanks. The Mets acquired him in a trade. Number two pick overall.
Still, I think the larger point stands.
Jimmy
Mack,
I'm still surprised that Jeff McNeil has endured as long as he has. When Sandy first arrived, with Hudgens as hitting instructor, they were very, very adamant about "the approach."
They really tried to fit everyone into that box.
Which works for some guys, like Nimmo, but not for others -- like Daniel Murphy, Travis d'Arnaud, Jeff McNeil.
Some guys need to feel free up at the plate, not so analytical.
I will always believe that the Mets let Murphy walk because he didn't adhere to the philosophy. I think Sandy has loosened up on that of late.
BUT: If you could write a book on the topic, why not give us an example or two. A sample page, so to speak.
Jimmy
Jimmy
I know Jeff and were there when ge joined the Mets.
He probably survived because he was never considered a prospect. Drafted as more of a utilty infielder.
Really only beganbegan to shine once he hit Savannah.
Love it, It awesome to know that any of the first 9 may side one spot and would be a viable option of us.
but I did not have guys like Hoglund or Haijar on my radar.
A big time Lefty would be amazing to the staff with Allan and Ginn as long as none are traded... Biggest take away is he could be ready quickly which to me is important with large contracts being handed out we need some financial balance with low cost but effective players...
Haijar my new target. as Painter is as well...
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