New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Series Preview

     The New York Mets, coming off of a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Rays, will look to turn their fortune around in a series against the Braves at Truist Park. The Mets and Braves were both anticipated to be at or near the top of the NL East coming into the year, but injuries and underperformance have ravaged both teams. The Mets, who prioritized addressing their depth in the offseason, have come out ahead, leading the NL East with an 18-16 record, 2 games ahead of the third-place Braves.

    This won't exactly be the star-studded series fans would hope for from two competitive teams thanks to the number of injuries that have hit both teams. Star OF Ronald Acuña Jr. was day-to-day after hurting his ankle running through first base but is in the starting lineup for game one. Former Met and 2020 Silver Slugger winner Travis d'Arnaud is down for the season with a thumb injury, top prospect and defensive wizard Christian Pache is on the 10-day IL, and top of the rotation arm Mike Soroka was recently transferred to the 60-day IL and is scheduled for surgery on his Achilles' heel. Depth arms such as P Touki Toussant and RP Grant Dayton will also be unavailable for the series. In a new development, Huascar Ynoa, who had been their best arm all season, broke his hand when punching the dugout wall after his last start and will be out for at least a few months, according to Braves beat writer Mark Bowman.

    The Mets seem to have it worse, though. SP Jacob deGrom was placed on the 10-day IL and is eligible to rejoin the team on Thursday the 20th. He joins key contributors Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Carrasco, and Seth Lugo, all three of whom have not yet pitched an inning for the major league club this season. 3B JD Davis, who had been one of the team's best bats with a .390/.479/.610 slash line in his limited time, has not played since May 1st. UTIL infielder Luis Guillorme is out with a strained oblique and OFs Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, and Albert Almora will also miss the series. A team of guys just on the IL between the two teams could compete for a playoff spot.

    Last year, the Braves were an offensive force, but this season they have cooled off a bit. Their team wRC+ dropped from 3rd in 2020 to 14th in 2021, their OPS from 1st to 7th, and their wOBA from 1st to 8th. 

    With starter Travis d'Arnaud down, the Braves are thrusting their top-10 prospect, William Contreras, into the starting role. William, the brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras, only has 15 career games but has put up an impressive .292/.370/.563 line with a 150 wRC+. 11 of his 15 career games have come this season, where he's continued to hit well with a .943 OPS across 44 plate appearances. Still only 23 years old, Contreras is making a strong case to be the full-time starter when d'Arnaud's contract expires after 2021. Backup catcher Jeff Mathis is practically Contreras' opposite. He is a 38-year old defensive-minded backstop with career batting stats resembling those of a pitcher: a .194/.252/.299 line, a .243 wOBA, and a 45 wRC+. Mathis gets his value from his game-calling and defensive skills, and while his glove has diminished over the years, he is still an invaluable presence for a team with young starters like Max Fried, Mike Soroka, and Ian Anderson. 

    First baseman Freddie Freeman needs no introduction to Mets fans. Not only has he been one of the most prolific Mets-killers since Chipper Jones retired, but Freeman was also last year's NL MVP. He has established himself as one of, if not the, best first basemen of the last half-decade. He has a career .890 OPS and 138 wRC+ with solid defense at first base, taking home a Gold Glove in 2018. In 2021, his average has dipped to .222 but Freddie has maintained a .349 OBP and a .472 SLG. Freeman is certainly a name to watch out for in this series and should be a name to watch out for.

    Ozzie Albies has quietly been a driving factor in the recent successful Braves teams, establishing himself as a surefire top-10 second baseman in baseball. He has posted consistently solid numbers, with an OPS just above .800 and 11.7 WAR through 442 games. Albies, like much of Atlanta's core, is still very young and is signed to a very team-friendly deal which will keep him with the Braves until 2026 and give him only an average of $5.5 million per season from 2021-2026. Albies has played his usual brand of ball in 2021 with a .243/.315/.479 line, a 113 wRC+, and 0.9 WAR through 38 games. 

    Up the middle with Albies is SS Dansby Swanson. A former first overall pick, Swanson has been a definite disappointment for Atlanta since joining the organization in the infamous Shelby Miller trade. He was abysmal in his first full season but slowly picked up his play from 2018-19 until breaking through in 2020 with a 116 wRC+ and 1.9 WAR, a career-best (even though he only played in 60 games). Swanson has failed to build upon his 2020 season, crashing back down to the tune of a .211/.276/.367 line and .278 wOBA. Swanson has now played 545 career games and will need to turn his numbers around sooner rather than later to avoid "bust" status.

    Another former top prospect who hasn't lived up to expectations is 3B Austin Riley. Riley came up in 2019 with a bang but fizzled out the rest of the way, thanks in part to his 36.4% strikeout rate and 5.4% BB rate. Entering 2021, he had accumulated over 500 major league PAs but only 0.1 WAR. Riley has gotten a consistent role as the starting third baseman, playing in all 40 games. He looks a lot more comfortable at the plate and the results speak for themselves, with Riley slashing .291/.405/.394 with a 123 wRC+. Most noticeably, his strikeout rate is a much more palatable 26.1% and his walk rate has skyrocketed to 13.1%, 14th in the NL. If Riley can keep hitting at this rate, he can be a problem for the Mets for the better part of the next decade.

    In the outfield, the Braves are pretty thin at the moment after losing star Ronald Acuña Jr. and up-and-comer Christian Pache. LF Marcell Ozuna signed a one-year, prove-it deal with Atlanta in 2020 and responded by winning a Silver Slugger and finishing 6th in NL MVP voting. That earned him a 4 year/$65 million pact. He hasn't lived up to the salary yet, with his OPS down over .400 from last year. He should get back on track soon enough, though, since his xwOBA of .346 is above average and much better than his current .290 mark. In CF, the Braves have been rocking with Ender Inciarte, who profiles more as a 4th outfielder than a starter. His 91 wRC+ is right in line with his career numbers, but Inciarte actually seems to be overperforming early on. In RF, Ehire Adrianza and Guillermo Heredia have gotten the starts. Both of them are career depth guys, usually latching on with an MLB team but never playing a huge role. Heredia is the hot bat right now and should get more of the playing time this series.

    LHP Max Fried will duel RHP Taijuan Walker in game 1. Fried is making his third straight start since returning from the IL and has had disappointing results thus far, with a 6.55 ERA, 4.95 FIP, and 4.23 xFIP in 22 innings across 5 starts. Fried was great in 2018, 2019, and 2020, but only threw a combined 115.2 innings those seasons. In 2019, he had a 4.02 ERA over 165.2 innings, and that falls more in line with his expected stats. Fried has had success against the Mets in the past, posting a 2.88 ERA as both a starter and reliever. 

    Taijuan Walker has found success early on with a 2.20 ERA, but like Fried, his peripherals paint a different picture. Walker has a 2.94 FIP but a 4.13 xFIP. Much of that is likely due to his high walk rate, which has climbed to 11%. His strikeout numbers have also gone down over his more recent starts, leaving Walker with a not-so-pretty 12.9 K-BB%. Will Walker's weaknesses be exposed or can he continue to outperform the metrics? Taijuan hasn't faced the Braves since 2017 when they were a much different team, but at least he is up against an ailing lineup rather than the Braves at their strongest.

    Veteran starter Charlie Morton will take the ball for game 2. Morton had a late-career resurgence with the Astros, playing a pivotal role in their playoff runs. He helped the Rays reach the postseason in 2019 and 2020, and the Braves signed him to a 1 year/$15 million deal to help them do the same. Morton has posted a 5.08 ERA, one year after having a 4.74 ERA. He doesn't look nearly as dominant as he did with the Astros, but it is important to remember that he hasn't even pitched 80 innings between 2020 and 2021. The most noticeable differences for him in 2021 are his higher HR/FB ratio and much higher walk rate. If those regress more towards his career norms, Morton could be a solid back-end starter for the Braves, but right now his performance has been poor.

    The Braves have another veteran starter slated for Wednesday's game in Drew Smyly. Smyly earned a 1 year/$11 million deal from Atlanta after a bounce-back 2020 campaign. Smyly has gotten rocked early in the season, though, allowing 17 earned runs through his first 4 starts (only 19 innings). He has settled down since then, with 12 innings of one-run, 8-hit ball (against the Brewers and Nationals, two teams that are struggling offensively). The biggest change is that he hasn't allowed a HR in his last two games after permitting 9 through his first 4 starts. The Mets have not hit home runs at a good rate this year, so Smyly may be able to extend his hot stretch against them.

    The Mets haven't announced their starters for games 2 or 3 yet, but expect some sort of bullpen game. Sean Reid-Foley and Joey Lucchesi should make at least one appearance in this series. Jordan Yamamoto could certainly get the call from AAA, as could Thomas Szapucki, a top ten prospect in New York's system. The Mets are ailing right now and just need to hold out a little longer until deGrom, Carrasco, and Lugo return towards the end of May. Syndergaard's addition in June should fully transform their staff into one of the league's best. But for now, everyone will have to eat up innings to get the team over the hump.

    If the Mets' pitching does struggle, at least the Braves aren't looking much better. Their three scheduled starters all have ERAs north of 5, and Atlanta's bullpen is currently 25th in ERA, 24th in xFIP, and 25th in batting average against. 

    This will surely be an interesting series between two banged-up division rivals. Neither team looks like the clear favorite, but I will lean towards the Braves in this one. The Bench Mob has been productive so far, but it doesn't seem likely that guys like Kevin Pillar and Jose Peraza can maintain their levels of play for much longer. Inexperienced players like Jake Hager and Joneswhy Fargas will also be inserted into games since even the Mets' depth is on the IL. Ultimately, things don't look incredible at the moment, but New York's schedule is looking lighter in the near future. They won't play a team currently above .500 until the Padres on June 3rd, and by then many of the injured players should be back on the roster. FOr now, we can see what guys like Szapucki, Hager, and Fargas are made of and hopefully pull out some wins in what will be a gritty series against the Braves.