Reese Kaplan -- Prospects or Suspects? Mets Minor Leaguers Not Impressive

Tom Brennan recently did a profile of the Mets’ top 30 prospect list and to say it’s unimpressive is putting it mildly (the list, not Tom’s article) 😁

Granted, everyone you see in a high school or college environment crushing the competition has star written all over himself, but how many of these youngsters have the tools and talent to move beyond that level of performance when the players on the other side of the field were just as noteworthy themselves? 

There’s an old joke about a Little Leaguer being asked by his Dad how his team did that day and he enthusiastically recited amazing hitting, dominant pitching and a lopsided score.  Just as his Dad was about to burst a button on his vest, his son said, “Then the big kids arrived…”

Some players put up fine numbers like Thomas Szapucki but injuries have gotten in the way of his ascent up the ladder.  Now he’s 25 and still just on the cusp of when he should be in the majors, but all of the sudden he’s forgotten how to control his pitches.  For his minor league career that dates back to his 19 year old debut with the Gulf Coast Port St. Lucie Mets, he’s looked incredible when he’s been able to pitch.  If you go by the back-of-the-baseball-card numbers, you’d think they’re already outfitting him for the All Star game.  His minor league ERA is just 2.37 which spans stints from Rookie ball up through AAA.   He’s logged only 167 IP over all that time, but yielded just 124 hits, striking out 11.5 per 9 IP and walking 3.6.  Some say lefties take longer to develop than righties and the Toms River native is a southpaw.  When we’ll actually see him in Queens is anyone’s guess.

Then there are the others who don’t do so consistently well in the minors but somehow put it together at the major league level.  There’s no reason to rehash the Jacob deGrom career specs from infielder-turned-pitcher which rotated between very good and very meh.  Now we’re looking at a guy who could challenge Bob Gibson’s seemingly untouchable 1968 ERA title of 1.12.  

These numbers jumped out at me this week when the Mariners announced they were sending uber prospect (and basis of most Mets fans’ agita) Jarred Kelenic back to AAA Tacoma after his horrible 8-83 start to a major league career.  New Yorkers expected he would be the second coming of Mickey Mantle based upon his 700 AB minor league career which yielded a .293 batting average to go along with 31 HRs and 115 RBIs.  Consequently his .096 major league batting average with a 31% strikeout rate was not just unsightly, but unexpected.  Granted, his minor league rate of 24% wasn’t impressive, it was still markedly better.  

Of course, hot prospects are always doubly disappointing when they don’t develop the way fans expected.  The two shortstops the Mets ticketed to Cleveland as part of the Francisco Lindor trade -- Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez -- were hitting .246 and .179 respectively.  What?  How could that be?

Do remember, though, that for every weak link there’s a player who flourishes after leaving the Mets, too.  I won’t ruin your breakfast by reciting a litany of them, but picking draft choices is a lot like choosing stocks.  They all seem good on paper but not every one of them becomes the next Tesla.  More are destined to be the next Pet Rock.