I saw Joe DeMayo just came out with his updated Top 30 list.
I did mine about a month earlier, in mid-October.
Joe's list and my list were quite similar, with a few disparities explained.
I summarized his and my lists below:
|
JOE
DEMAYO RANKING |
MY RANKING |
WHY I RANKED A PLAYER HIGHER OR LOWER
|
|
1.
INF/OF Jett
Williams |
1. Brandon Sproat |
Flip a coin between him and
Jett |
|
2.
RHP Brandon
Sproat |
2. Jett Williams |
See above |
|
3.
OF Drew
Gilbert |
3. Jonah Tong |
Tong Terrific, think his
ceiling is higher. |
|
4. 1B/OF
Ryan Clifford |
4. Carson Benge |
Benge over Clifford due to latter's K rate |
|
5. OF
Carson Benge |
5. Nolan McLean |
I think McLean will be
terrific |
|
6. INF
Ronny Mauricio |
6. Drew Gilbert |
Drew is talented, bad season,
now 24. |
|
7. RHP
Nolan McLean |
7. Ronny Mauricio |
Rust, risk of re-injury,
likely to stop SBs |
|
8. INF
Jesus Baez |
8. Nick Morabito |
Terrific year, I do think he
adds power |
|
9. RHP
Blade Tidwell |
9. Boston Baro |
Very good first year, solid
future |
|
10. RHP
Jonah Tong |
10. Luisangel Acuna |
Up to # 10 on basis of his great Sept. |
|
11. IF/OF
Luisangel Acuña |
11. Ryan Clifford |
Ryan K’d 160 X in 129
G. Hit .228. |
|
12. RHP
Christian Scott |
12. Jer. Rodriguez |
Scott left off my list; already a MLB. J Rod great performance for an 18 y/o, |
|
13. LHP
Jonathan Santucci |
13. Blade Tidwell |
Concerned that Tidwell got
hammered at AAA. Major leaguers hit a lot better. |
|
14. IF Jeremy Rodriguez |
14. Marco Vargas |
Marco hurt a lot, but he
gets on base. |
|
15. INF
Marco Vargas |
15. Jon Santucci |
DeMayo and I are close in ranking Jon S |
|
16. OF
Nick Morabito |
16. Nate Dohm |
DeMayo & I are close in
ranking Dohm |
|
17. INF
Boston Baro |
17. Trey Snyder |
DeMayo and I are close in
ranking Trey. |
|
18. RHP
Dom Hamel |
18. Jesus Baez |
I’d have had Baez higher, if it not for meniscus injury that cost him 2 mo. |
|
19. SS
Trey Snyder |
19.Daiv. Gutierrez |
Gutierrez had significant improvement in 2024, so I had him ranked higher. |
|
20. RHP
Nate Dohm |
20. Yov. Rodriguez |
I liked that his bat was
coming around at season’s end; he has a gun for an arm. |
|
21. RHP
Mike Vasil |
21. AJ Ewing |
I liked potential enuf to
have AJ at # 21. |
|
22. 3B
Jacob Reimer |
22. Mike Vasil |
DeMayo and I are close in
ranking Vasil. |
|
23. INF
Colin Houck |
23. Jacob Reimer |
DeMayo and I are close in
ranking Reimer. Great eye, missed most of 2024. |
|
24. C
Daiverson Gutierrez |
24. Ron Hernandez |
DeMayo and I are close in
ranking Ron. |
|
25. C
Yovanny Rodriguez |
25. Wyatt Young |
I like Wyatt. 118 games in 2024, a fine
.287/.387/.358, 17/ 25 SBs. Fine fielder. |
|
26. C
Ronald Hernandez |
26. Dominic Hamel |
Ranked Dom lower - awful AAA year. |
|
27. C
Kevin Parada |
27. Edward Lantigua |
Joe DeMayo and I are close on
Edward |
|
28. OF
Edward Lantigua |
28. Alex Ramirez |
Alex not in Joe's 30. Barely in mine due to SBs. May he wake up in 2025. |
|
29. RHP
Jack Wenninger |
29. Jordan Geber |
Geber as good-performing
underdog |
|
30. OF
Eli Serrano III |
30. Nate Lavender |
Nate returns in 2025 as a high
K reliever |
Houck and Parada, in Joe’s Top 30 at # 23 and # 27, just
fanned too darned much for me, totaling 324 Ks in 226 games in 2024, and both struggled defensively. So I left those two Mets first round picks out of my Top 30. Both obviously are looking to break out strongly to the upside in 2025. Hopefully, both have goals that include reducing strikeouts from 1.4 per game to one K or fewer per game.
Wenninger and Serrano, whom Joe had at 29 and 30? I had them slightly lower, and hence slightly out of my top 30.
So there you have it.
Except for this needed footnote involving Jett, Drew and Reimer:
The injury-truncated seasons of Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, and Jacob Reimer came to a close last week as the AFL season finished up, with the AFL season being only briefly underway when I had published my Top 30 ranking in October.
The 263 AFL plate appearances between the trio boosted their season PAs to 249 (Jett), 361 (Gilbert), and 165 (Reimer), still well below a normal full season of at bats, but helpful to each of the 3 in reducing their 2024 playing time deficits.
Overall, they hit just .211 in 633 at bats, which is clearly not good.
(BTW, I asked my brother Steve as we ate breakfast at Buttermilk’s in Patchogue what those 3 had hit during 2024. His guess? .211. BULLS EYE. He laughed and said he was going to go out and play that number.)
But the trio’s combined OBP was a solid .353 due to a combined 116 walks. That’s a lot of free passes. That said:
Their batting averages have to come up a lot in 2025, regardless of the OBP.
One of the most positive stats for the trio was from the least experienced of the 3. Jacob Reimer walked 30 times while fanning just 27 times in his 165 plate appearances. The K rate and BB rate were both excellent. That should bode well for Reimer in 2025.
Jett Williams walked 39 times in 249 PAs, but fanned a very high 65 times. He needs to improve there.
Drew Gilbert walked 47 times and fanned 68 times in his 361 PAs so his K rate was acceptable, and walk rate was quite solid. He did smack 14 HRs. He just had a lousy average.
The trio, in their 775 PAs, had just 26 doubles, 4 triples, and 18 HRs, with just 75 RBIs. 95 runs scored were an OK total.
So, their offensive power and batting average output, while not terrible, need to collectively rocket upwards in 2025 after their mediocre, injury-riddled 2024.
A combined average in 2025 boosted by at least 60 points to .270 or better, with continued high levels of walks, will bring sighs of front office relief, as will taking that ratio of an extra base hit to PA ratio of only 1 in every 16 at bats up to something more like 1 in every 10 ABs in 2025.
A disappointing offensive production year from the trio, in summary, but the high walk rates were a major positive that should not be overlooked.
Above all, I want to see 1,600+ plate appearances from this trio in 2025, up from 2024’s meager 775. Staying healthy is the key to 1600+ plate appearances.
14 comments:
More opinions:
Baseball America also had Williams over Sproat. I disagree as a MLB potential ace that can at least pitch in the bullpen now should be ranked over a potential player that hasn’t really mastered AA, but was pushed up.
The down year in the entire system cannot be an accident, I feel. Morabito, Rodriguez, Hernandez, and Baro were the only ones to put in a strong offensive year.
I do agree that players that cannot make consistent contact stand to become windmills in the majors, but we just traded for one. My fingers are tightly crossed. In all, I would like to see a list of players that we can trade based on ability to improve or importance (pitchers) and guys that are on their path and we cannot see much upside.
Upside guys: Sproat, Mauricio, Gilbert, Tong, Benge, McLain, Rodriguez. Vargas doesn’t project to add power, Acuna, Williams and Morabito are similar result players, and Clifford needs to be traded this year before his value goes down too much.
Alonso v. Clifford, as everyone thinks they are comparable.
AA: Alonso: .313/.425/.574, 45 BB, 57 K, 320 PA
Clifford: .231/.359/.457, 63 BB, 117 K, 333 PA
I cannot compare the other levels as A+ was in St. Lucie for Alonso but in Brooklyn for Clifford with that wind against lefties.
I disagree with you on Parada. I feel that catchers have to work hard on their defense and it takes away from their offense. He probably took advantage of lesser pitchers in college, but I have to give him the spot over an Aj Ewing or Wyatt Young or Geber.
It has been written that many feel Clifford has a higher upside than Gilbert. The way he was promoted last year may reflect that. Also, remember Alonso played college and was in age 24 in AA. Clifford played in age 20. After saying this, I would love to see Clifford step his game up with a higher average and lower Ks.
I enjoy reviewing these top prospect listings and reading the reasons one ranks a prospect differently than another. Out of respect for your listing, I will not say you should have ranked prospect A here, B is better than C. I have my own feelings on rankings.
Vasil and Hamel have not been added to the 40 man roster making them eligible for the draft
Steve, that Vasil and Hamel exclusion from the 40 man says it all, doesn't it? If they don't get drafted, I figure out a way to get both in the bullpen. some guys who were mediocre at best minors starters who turned into excellent relievers include Jeurys Familia, Brad Hand and Andrew Miller. Switch to Plan B.
Your point on Clifford's age is good, but he still gives me a Kirk Niewenhuis vibe until he proves otherwise.
Gus, on Vargas, if I am Vargas, I take that as a challenge. Strength can be added. I never did weight work in high school and when I started college at 5'10", 135, a friend of mine there talked me into working out with him 3-4 days a week on the universal machine. I jumped 120 pounds on my bench weight before Christmas vacation, in just a little over 2 months, and added 18 pounds. Essentially, doing the same thing changed McNeil from a homerless skinny slap hitter into Jeff McNeil, the moderately powered Met. TJ Rivera did the same.
Parada, I did an article about on Saturday, so I will reserve any comment here on him.
Sproat? I would tell him, I do not care about your ERA, you work on your curve and change up by throwing both a lot more in games until you upgrade both pitches, then you will have a full repertoire to be a successful MLB starter more quickly.
I would ask every hitter who fans too much, what do you think of Joe Sewell? Sure, the Hall of Famer of the height of Jett Williams played 100 years ago in a far lower strikeout world, but this guy, in 9 seasons only fanned between 3 and 9 times in those seasons. How did he manage to not strike out? I'd study it.
Or don't study it and be like your strikeout idol Jose Siri, who in 265 at bats in 2024 where the count reached 2 strikes, he hit just .113.
Did you leave Scott off your list for a reason? Going to be in Patchogue next Thursday.
Ray in Patchogue? Wow! Lots of good new restaurants in the town, geared mostly to breakfast and lunch and some for dinner. Are you just in for Thanksgiving day?
I did leave Scott off because I considered him a true major leaguer already - his injury with the Mets truncated that. I did have Ronny on because, even though he made the majors, I did not think he had played long enough to prove he was not still a prospect, and then got hurt off-season. I think he moves up from prospect status to MLB status in 2025.
Thank you Steve. Very valid points.
Tom,
Thanks for the list and for putting it out early...I like your smart choices.
"Or don't study it and be like your strikeout idol Jose Siri, who in 265 at bats in 2024 where the count reached 2 strikes, he hit just .113. "
I can't imagine what possible offensive value this guy would have for the Mets...pinch runner? pinch hitter?
Other than as a defensive replacement late in the game...zero in my book.
Is he even coachable?
So, Mike Vasil, Dom Hamel, Nate Lavender, Luke Ritter, and other prospects, were not added to the 40-man roster and are avail. in the Rule 5 draft.
But, every team can stash up to 78 players. The 40 on the MLB roster and 38 more regardless of level for the AAA roster. So, wouldn't any of those 4 have to be kept on the MLB roster ALL YEAR, if they are part of the 38, and in the MLB portion of the draft?
BTW...we are never told who the 38 are each year.
also, players not added to the 38-Man AAA Roster will be eligible for the minor league portion of the draft.
Prospect rankings illustrate the rough ride that players have through the minors. They are up and down, and only as good as the last season in the rater's eye. However, they are still developing, trying out new things they learn and often failing to get it right until they have many reps. That can lead to a perception of regression when it may just be taking one step back to position for two steps forward. My opinion is that Vasil and Hamel will rise next year as quickly as they fell this year.
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