1/7/25

Tom Brennan: Thoughts on Citi Field Dimensions

Many Deep Conversations Occur About This Park’ Size

This morning’s 6 AM Mack’s Mets article, by Remember 1969, raised the topic of Citi Field dimensions. I always appreciate that discussion.

Of course, some will disagree or agree based on their own personal predilections. I am not defensive about my position…just think it is the most sensible position on dimensions.

That’s what makes this game so interesting. Debating the best course forward. Some for example prefer offense over low scoring, some will prefer the opposite.

My expounded view on the subject is essentially this:

1) I have no say regarding the subject of field dimensions, Stearns and Cohen do. They write the checks and make the decisions. I just opine.

2) I have no idea how the players feel about shortened fences. I can only speculate. I’d be shocked if Pete wouldn’t have wanted the fences 5-7 feet shorter.

3) It is my understanding that the ball does not carry well at Citi Field at certain times during the season. Part of the park factors that make Citi Fielda pitcher-friendly park.

4) Cohen and Stearns just brought in super elite power hitting Juan Soto, and already have big power bats in Vientos, Alvarez, and Lindor, and may retain Power Pete. If I were the owner, I’d want them to have an easier park to hit in, in order for them to produce more offense and make my investments look solid and prudent.

5) If Soto, for one, hits 45 HRs vs. 35 HRs in a season, it probably will incrementally excite the fans, enough to push home attendance up.

6) I do not advocate for a band box park, just a park whose park factors are neutral or slightly hitter-friendly. With regard to that, Statcast analyzes each “park’s hitting factor.”  Stat-Cast Park Factors. They describe it as follows: 

“Statcast park effects show the observed effect of each displayed stat based on the events in the selected park. Each number is set so that “100” is average for that metric, and the park-specific number is generated by looking at each batter and pitcher, controlled by handedness, and comparing the frequency of that metric in the selected park compared to the performance of those players in other parks. 

“For example, the 135 HR mark for 2018-2020 at Great American Ball Park does not mean the Reds hit 35% more home runs at their home park. It means for batters and pitchers who played both at GABP and elsewhere, 35% more home runs were observed at GABP.”

7) With that in mind, and looking at historical data of 2 teams of interest, the Phillies and Mets, in the last 5 full seasons (2019, 2021-24), the Phillies park was ranked 12th out of 30 parks in hitter friendliness, while Citi Field ranked well below that, at 24th.

8) I am only advocating for the Mets’ park factor over 5 years to be around #15 out of 30.

9) My guess is that moving fences in roughly 5-7 more feet would raise the park factor from #24 to #15. Of course,that would require analysis by the Stearns analysts.

10) A case of course could be made that paying a mountain of gold to Soto over the next 15 years would warrant striving for a hitter-friendly park factor of 10, to bolster his ongoing superstar status and future Hall of Fame chances.

Despite the implications of all of the above, if the Mets would win more home games each year in a large park, wins to me are first and foremost because winning a World Series is the primary goal, not to lead the league in batting but miss the playoffs.

An interesting topic, with no 100% objectively right answer.

But the first two versions of Citi Field (2009 and 2011) were both ridiculously too deep. That conclusion is objectively right.

The 3rd (closer-in) fences version, established in 2016, made it close to a fair park for Mets hitters. Close, true, but still pitcher-friendly.

That’s my rationale. 

My vote? Move them in again.

18 comments:

Briscoe Met Fan said...

Move right center in 6-10 feet.

Remember1969 said...

I think the answer is a dome over the stadium in April and May.

That is my next research project. How things play out by month.

Soto's stats at Citi are better than any other ball park with > 60 at bats. I don't know how many of them came in April.

Tom Brennan said...

Briscoe, reasonable - do you remember original Citi Field? 415 to right center, which neutered David Wright? That was so dumb. Also, a lot of stadiums are around 400 feet in dead center (399, 401, 402). Citifield is perpendicular to the plate and at 408. I'd make that 401, and round it off.

Zozo said...

I still hold out hope that we can one day put a retractable roof over Citi. Better option for our players to stay healthy when playing in at least 81 games a year in a controlled atmosphere.

I like the pitchers park that we have always had and hope to keep it that way. We just need to build a more speed and defensive oriented team to cover the field.
Also I think if it is more pitcher friendly we may not have to spend too much money on free agent pitchers. That way the average pitcher should be able to keep the ball in the park a bit more to help his stats?

Tom Brennan said...

Remember 1969, a roof would have been awesome. I seem to remember one excuse was fear the extra weight would cause sinkage. But imagine an enclosed 70 degree stadium on a 35 degree misty night in early April. 20,000 more fans would show up.

While it was at Shea, I remember Piazza CRUSHING a ball to right center. Probably a 430 footer on a normal day. Died in the heavy spring air and wind, caught on the track. Shorter fences would help neutralize that deflating thing for hitters. Of course, the pitcher who gave up that blast to Piazza had to be grinning.

Jon Messinger said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Remember1969 said...

The question from my piece earlier this morning that will flummox me forever is why the low batting average and the crazy number of singles difference?

Tom Brennan said...

I think low batting average at home and fewer singles may have been due to early slumps by hitters. Maybe more home than road games early on? The infield grass might well also be a factor.

Remember1969 said...

The 2024 numbers mirror those of other years. I know that LIndor, Nimmo, McNeil, etc. never got things going until June, but as I look at past years, one other stat that strikes me as 'normal' for the Mets is their BABIP. The batting average for balls in play is rather significantly lower at home than on the road consistently. A head scratcher. The grass height is the only thing I can come up with. The bases on balls differential (always more at home) is also weird. Is there less ground in foul territory at Citi than other ballparks?

JoeP said...

Tom Just remember...the more homeruns we hit; the more home runs the opponents hit.

Agree with many of the points made. Bring right center in a few feet due to the crazy dimensions. Also, it appeals to the pitchers out there looking for a new home.

Zozo, I like you would love a retractable roof. It stinks sitting out there in April. With a retractable roof you take away all the excuses about playing out west in good weather throughout the season.

Tom Brennan said...

JoeP, I am cold-blooded. I haven’t been to an April game since the early 1960s, except in April 2023, when I was retiring. My coworkers took me. San Diego and Soto were there. Unbelievably, it was 90 degrees, and a more comfortable day in the shade you could not find.

If they added a roof and enclosed it, I would go to multiple April night games.

My argument is, our hitters will hit better in a tighter park, but our pro pitchers should be able to adapt and thrive with the Mets scoring more runs.

Tom Brennan said...

Zozo, if the park were smaller, a cheaper soft tosser who keeps HRs low, like Quintana, becomes more attractive.

TexasGusCC said...

Cohen looked into it, he said forget it.

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, was that before or after he spent $765 million on a slugger?

Gary Seagren said...

We don't have a dome because Wilpon was making the decision which like the dumb as a rock call on RF being 415 ft to kill DW goes down on the list of all time terrible calls.

Paul Articulates said...

The domed stadium is an awesome dream, but there is no economic justification. The movement of walls is cheaper, and the timeframe to implement is quick. Mets just need to decide if they are going to win offensively or defensively. Right now they are the third best hitting lineup in the NL East, even with Soto. That creates quite a risk when making your ballpark more hitter friendly.

Tom Brennan said...

Paul, I agree with you, except I am convinced many more folks would go to a domed park due to not having to sit in 35 degree weather or rain. I just don’t know how many more attendees there would be annually. So I don’t know what the break even on cost effectiveness would be. A domed stadium would allow off season events, too, like large music concerts.

Tom Brennan said...

Gary, the Wilpons’ legacy is bad in many ways. 415 feet to right center with DavidWright in his prime. Ultra bonehead.