Two Former #1 Overall MLB Mets Prospects
(Well, OK, one, not two, but who's counting?)
I occasionally like to see how other rankers list the Mets prospects. Otherwise, I'd probably forget them altogether at my age LOL.
MLB in its recent top 100 ranking has 5 Mets:
Brandon Sproat at number 40, Jett Williams at 52, Drew Gilbert at 74, Ryan Clifford at 87, and Carson Benge at 99. Those 5 #s total 352.
I suppose that having five prospects in the top 100 is very good in one sense: since there are 30 teams, each team should have roughly 3.33 prospects in the top 100 if it were completely evenly waited with talent.
So, since 5.0 > 3.3, the Mets numerically are good.
On the other hand, the Mets five top 100 prospects average out to just a 70 ranking (352/5), which is low. You'd like to be at least the halfway point in the top 100, or 50, on average,
Meanwhile, a team like Boston has three position players in the prestigious MLB top 10: Roman Anthony at number three, Marcelo Meyer at number seven, and Kristian Campbell at number 10.
Without studying the relative merits of those three versus the Mets five, if I had a chance to trade our five for their three, I’d probably do it in a heartbeat. Baseball teams live or die, more times than not, on their stars. If you're in MLB's top 10, they no doubt think you will be a future star.
Detroit has the overall number five ranked player in RHP Jackson Jobe, the top pitcher in their Top 100 list (someday he may have such a storied career that someone will write the Book of Jobe, but I digress). Max Clark, the power hitting Tigers outfielder prospect, is seated at number six, and Kevin McGonigle is at number 31.
- My guess is that if I had a chance to do a five Mets for three Tigers swap there, I would do that as well.
Another interesting overall analysis, which I may do an updated article on in about a month, is produced by Prospects 1500.
Their list includes the top 1500 prospects (30 for each team).
What is interesting with them is that they rank players from tier 1 through tier 5.
Tier 1 are players that are expected by them to have highly successful careers With probably more than one All Star appearance. Tier 2 include very competent future MLB players. Tier 4 are players that they consider as possible decent major league players down the road, and Tier 5 are players of interest that they expect to have minimal major league impact.
They have yet to update their analysis since midseason, so I will only highlight a few Metsies, but at midseason, they had only Jett Williams as a Tier 1, and I'd not be surprised to see them slip him to Tier 2 based on his second half struggles.
Sproat, Gilbert, Clifford, Acuna, and Mauricio (pictured), were at their # 2 Tier.
(It is weird to see Mauricio still in prospect lists. Memo to prospects: avoid long-term injuries.)
Will they all be still at Tier 2 in P-1500's soon-updated list? We'll soon see.
Benge and Baez were ranked at Tier 3 by P-1500. Both being at early career stages, I'd be quite surprised to not see both of these talented chaps in P-1500's Tier 2 by mid-season 2025.
At Tier 3 were Tong, Tidwell, and Jeremy Rodriguez. Maybe Tong very shortly sneaks into their Tier 2 based on his continued strong progress in the 2nd half of 2024.
At Tier 4 they had Nolan McLean, Kevin Parada and Colin Houck. I think in their upcoming update, McLean will be a Tier 3. The other two will at best be Tier 4 when they update their rankings shortly.
May I remind our readers that while lead off man Nick the Quick Morabito has yet to play in AA, where he will undoubtedly be assigned on opening day 2025, over the past 2 seasons, he has done this:
664 at bats, a fine .310/.410/.400 slash, 26 doubles, 8 triples, (just) 6 HRs, and a gaudy 110 runs scored, along with 80 steals in 99 attempts.
Add power, and that sure looks like Tier 2 material to me.
So, where does all of the above leave us?
I think we have a good quantity of minors prospects (skewed towards hitters), but no Paul Skenes or Bobby Witts in the group. Probably none that will even be close to that super duo, either. Those two scream "MLB Superstar".
BTW:
That was me pictured at the top, with Darryl, some years ago. Me?
I was the best athlete on my block growing up, and our block had lots of kids!
Best, that is, until my brother Steve surpassed me.
Anyway:
Pastor Darryl preaches better than me, but I can out-sing him any Sunday.
He once spoke at Joel Osteen's church, but I was invited to sing there.
True.
And Finally:
A LOOK-BACK AT TWO small cap AND BIG CAP METS HITTERS
Before I go, I saw this mid-May 2024 commentary in the article I found the above Darryl picture in. Mid-May was shortly before the Mets turned around their freefalling 2024 season.
So, it's the January dead period, so I thought I would re-post it:
baty … or VIENTOS? May I Choose?
So, here I am, on a fine Monday evening, waiting in the car for my wonderful bride, and my brother Steve texts me that he is out celebrating his first anniversary, but he adds that all the Braves do is HIT.
I reply that “All the Mets do is QUIT”. Megill was good today, I added...5 innings, 3 runs, 2 earned, fanned 7. When you HIT and don’t QUIT, that is a good outing. I refuse to nitpick pitchers, when the hitters are crap.
Nido homered, up to .241, but Lindor, .194. Time to hit, Frankie.
I then note that brett baty, he of small letters and smaller production, who is trying very hard to still hit his stride in his 3rd season, and coming up small, like the letters - he fanned his first two times up, and now comes up with the bags juiced and 2 outs. A hitter’s delight.
He, however, takes a big, fat, juicy strike one, admiring it as it goes by, and then pitch 2 is a swinging strike, and pitch 3 is a swinging strike.
Three pitches, why prolong the agony? The Mets (and baty of the small letters and smaller production) leave the bags juiced. Which they are fond of doing, it certainly seems. That inning died at 3-1, which was the finally wimpy score from a wimpy team.
Sitting on the bench during all of this is my guy, MARK VIENTOS, who had 2 hits and an RBI yesterday and is hitting .333.
I wonder why my guy MARK VIENTOS is not playing and the small letter, small production guy is.
Then I look at the small production guy’s last 15 games, which I have time to look up, since my wife still isn’t back yet.
Turns out baty is 8 for 47 with 5 walks and 22 strikeouts in those 15 games. Which makes me wonder:
Do the Mets want to actually, at some point in this decade, fight like desperate, cornered animals to win, like Pastor Darryl’s mid-80s teams did, or keep playing guys like the one with with small letters and smaller production who might someday learn to hit his weight in a month not named April?
It is just so easy to lose 2 of every 3 games, isn’t it? Like breathing.
Message to Mets:
Play the power guy with ALL CAPS. VIENTOS.
And not the guy with small letters and smaller production. baty.
Who someday, some season, we fervently hope everything will click for.
Let those things click for the small letter guy with the smaller production where he belongs…in Syracuse.
WHAT HAPPENED AFTER THAT MID-MAY ARTICLE?
No sooner had the ink dried, it seemed, we saw the Mets demote baty, elevate VIENTOS to the starting 3rd baseman role, and ignite as a team, as they “played like desperate, cornered animals” to out-win every other MLB team over the past 4+ months.
13 comments:
I am going to assume, unless you are drafting high every year, you will be lucky to have multiple tier one prospects. And if you are drafting high every year, how is that going? However, constructing a team of all tier two prospects? Your man Vientos did fairly well last year. What tier was he ranked? Guessing not a tier one or two.
If I had a team consisting of a player listed in "MLB's Top Ten" at every position, I would guess most would have come from tier two.
The Mets look like they have several positions locked up for a few years. (SS, LF, RF, C, 3rd/1st). Could you use a couple of your twos that may be blocked to get a tier one in a position of need?
Love looking at the prospect listings and dreaming.
Good AM.
Speaking of prospects, I saw that the Nats signed hulking Junior Santos to a minor league deal. Junior had a very promising debut at age 16, followed by several years of mediocrity, as he failed to come anywhere close to the abilities of hulking Tylor Megill. Santos always had a high WHIP and a relatively low K rate after that 16 year old debut, and a career ERA approaching 5.00 after age 16.
It's a good thing Terry "Lose 'Em Any Way You Can" Collins is not the manager or we never would have seen Vientos.
Steve, I am always in favor of trading up to get superior talent, if there is a deal there to be had that is worthwhile for the Mets.
The Mets have done lots of bad drafting over the years. I have written about that in recent years. Maybe I will rerun those, as I think it is a big flaw that has forced this team into luxury tax he’ll.
Vientos was barely a Tier 2 in the listings of the elite, because they look at the entire player, and Mark was slow and his fielding questionable. But a few years back, I watched Vientos’ clips of him homering to left, center, and right with a sweet swing, and I expected a lot more. Pre-COVID, he was a skinny kid without a lot of HR production. After COVID, in 2021, he was a slow starter after a year off. Then the power started, and I was very hopeful he’d be another Wilmer Flores, with a lower batting average, but considerably more power. That’s who showed up in 2024.
I sincerely hope he becomes more aggressive at not taking first pitch strikes. If that happens, 40 HRs and .275 is not unreasonable. Maybe some year, he might even take-a run at 50.
Reese, it would have been very easy to give up on Vientos…and have him blossom somewhere else. Thankfully, Mendoza was happy to write “Vientos” onto line up cards.
As it is, many will focus on his 27 HRs in 2024, and forget he did that in just 111 games. Just adding his playoff ABs to that and the numbers grow to 32 HRs in 124 games. Quite a pace. That would be 42 over 162 games. He needs to get the Ks down, though. Swing more at strike one.
Last year, in roughly two thirds of a season, Vientos had 27 HRs while batting .265. Extrapolate that and you are at the 40 HRs. He did not have a very good September batting only .213 over the last 15 games. A stronger finish and he is over the .275. I think that your benchmark is very reasonable. (Hoping for no sophomore slump).
Steve, I think the answer for Vientos to avoid the sophomore jinx, which Alonso certainly experienced, is to be more aggressive swinging at first pitch strikes that aren’t on the black.I believe (Sept and playoffs) he fanned 53 times in 32 games, without looking back at the data. That is a big red flag. Antidote? Aggressiveness on first pitch strikes.
Things would have looked much different if Mauricio Jett and Drew had played last year as very few AB's between the 3 so we found out very little about them a lost year for sure.
Had to go back and look at the November issue of "Baseball America". This is before the signing of Soto. In the issue they project the 2028 lineup based upon currently signed players through the 2028 season and prospects they feel will be MLB ready. Of the prospects, Acuna and Gilbert are not included. As it is before the Soto signing, they project Benge in center and Clifford in right. Also, Williams at second, Baez at third with Vientos at first and Mauricio at DH. Now with Soto, Clifford at DH or first, Vientos at DH and Mauricio not included?
Looks like the system has some tier two prospects that may be available to strengthen the system and MLB team. I am also hearing over my shoulder, remember that not all things happen as we wish.
(As I am typing this my thoughts go back to Reese Havens who I was hoping would still have been manning second base).
Reese Havens with that very weird injury. He would have been a Tier 2.
Gary, everyone would have had a much clearer read on R Mo, Jett, and Drew. Trade value and future utility would have been so much more clear.
Steve, I agree with BB America on those exclusions. The players excluded can prove that they do belong. Gilbert got up 367 times last year, and hit .206. We spend a lot of time bantering about a guy who didn’t hit .306 instead.
Happy to read this financial success by a former successful Met:
The Nationals re-signed Trevor Williams to a two-year deal, with a $14MM guarantee. He turns 33 in 2025.
The last time Williams was a free agent, he signed a two-year, $13MM pact with Washington.
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