Paul Articulates – Cash in now

The New York Mets are still looking to bolster their starting pitching rotation.  Some top starters that were on the free agent market like Corbin Burnes (signed with AZ) and Max Fried (signed with NYY) have been lured to other teams already, there are a couple of big names remaining.  One of them, and to me the most interesting, is young Japanese star Roki Sasaki.

Sasaki is an interesting case because he is an international player who has been posted by his team, meaning that any MLB team can sign him.  Because of his age and experience, he is not eligible to sign a free agent deal, so he must sign to what is essentially a minor league deal with a bonus that is determined by the international bonus pool.  

Each team has a bonus pool determined by their market size and their positioning in the competitive balance draft rounds.  The size of this pool maxes out just over $7.5M.  The Mets have $6.26M.  

There are intricate rules for incentives and penalties that I won’t get into here, but the point is that teams have the ability to sign one of the best available pitchers out there for an AAV less than $1M, a bonus of $7.5M, and get six years of team control.  What a bargain!!

Another interesting feature of the international signing bonus pool is that teams can obtain up to $250k of pool money from another team through trades.  They also lose $500k for each free agent they sign that rejected a qualifying offer.  

There is a nice summary in MLBtraderumors.com if you would like to see the exact amounts each team has.

So if you are in the market for the “best deal in baseball”, and the 2025 bonus money becomes available to each team on January 15th which is 16 days before Sasaki’s window to sign closes, then it behooves you to make sure to maximize the amount you can offer.

Understand that not all of the 30 teams have the same chance to sign Sasaki.  The information that has been leaked about the process so far indicates that Sasaki has been very particular in what he is looking for in a host team, and it is not just money.   

My read is that he wants to be part of a team that is capable of making him the best pitcher he can be.  The fame and money can follow.  This positions the Mets very well, as their pitching lab and their recent history of transforming pitchers like Sean Manaea speaks volumes.  

There are other teams like the Dodgers that can also claim to have first class player development and technology to lure Sasaki, so a nice hefty bonus can help.

So what can the Mets do now that the sales pitches and owner visits have been completed?  The answer is to sweeten their bonus pot.  Go make some trades that include transfer of international bonus money to the Mets.  

I am not trying to imply that we should give away talented prospects just for small amounts of pool money, but that would have to be a condition of any trade for other talent.  This begs the question of what talent you put on the block.  Here are a few suggestions.

1. Brett Baty – Baty has been a promising prospect throughout his development, but stumbled when he got his chance in the majors.  He started hot, and then went into a prolonged slump when opposing pitchers found the hole in his swing.  

This has soured Mets fans, but does not mean that Baty is a lost cause – he is a very talented baseball player that may just need a different environment and a little less media pressure to get back on track.  A small market team that has a good amount of international bonus money but can’t match Sasaki’s wish list would be the perfect fit.  

Think Athletics, Mariners, Guardians, and Twins.  The Guardians have a pretty good third baseman in Jose Ramirez and the A’s just traded for Gio Ursela, but the Mariners and Twins are in need.  Maybe there is a deal for Baty where the Mets pick up a relief pitcher and some bonus money.

2. Kevin Parada – Parada was a highly touted prospect with a power bat.  He is still working his way through the development system, but has a few very talented catchers ahead of him, including Francisco Alvarez who appears to be the long term solution for the Mets.  

Seattle seems pretty healthy with Cal Raleigh, but the Twins and the Guardians are teams that need upgrades behind the plate.  Maybe there is a deal for Parada where the Mets pick up a relief pitcher and some bonus money.

3. DJ Stewart – Stewart spent some time with the Mets last year and showed some real power at times.  He was capable, though not spectacular in right field.  The Mets have a very strong outfield roster right now and the chances for DJ to break into the MLB roster this year are pretty slim.  He could add outfield depth to any of several teams that have top bonus money but low probability of luring Sasaki.

If David Stearns makes these three deals, the Mets could wind up with another $750k in bonus money, which puts them above $7M.  Couple that with the outstanding player development system; the state-of-the-art pitching lab technology; the advantage of a large NY merchandising market; and a team that will contend for a championship and you have a pretty solid proposal to win Sasaki.

Go get it done, Mr. Stearns!