MACK - MY Sunday Observations - Chain Analysis by Position - SP-2

 

Good morning

Last Thursday, we wrote about the first seven starters in this analysis.

We now move into the second group (of three) of BLUE or Red starters in the chain. Here are seven more:

Zach Thornton – AA  LHP   6-3   170

23/years old.  Drafted in the 5^th round of the 2023 draft, by the NYM, out of Grand Canyon University

Minors –

    2024  A/A+:   20-G, 12.ST, 5-4, 4.10, 1.40, 68-IP, 18-BB, 54-K

    Last two outings:

        4/30 (AA)  -  4.1-IP, 5-H, 2-ER, 54/78

        4/18 (A+)  -  6-IP, 1=H, 0-R, 0-BB, 8-K, 72/50

Five pitch mix known for deception

FB – 90, T-94, 2200-2400RPM, 16” vertical break

Slider – low 80s  2-plane break  2400-2500  3.9” vertical break

Curve – mid 70s  11-5 shape 

Changeup -  low 80s  1700 RPM  10.8” vertical  14.5” horizontal

Cutter – mid/high 80s  2400  6.4” V   3.3” H

Probably the most pleasant surprise this season for all chain starters. Was recently promoted to AA after tossing 0.44/0.67 in four starts for Brooklyn. Because of congestion issues, this is probably as high as he goes this season.

ETA – ASB 2026

 

Jack Wenninger – AA  RHP   6-4  210

23 years old – drafted by NYM in the 6^th round of the 2023 draft, out of the University of Illinois-Urbana (big one)

Three seasons –    30-G, 23-ST, 7-6, 4.01, 1.21, 132.1-IP, 166-K

2024 – A/A+:         25-G, 19-ST, 4-6, 4.30, 1.27, 115-IP, 140-K

             A+:             10-G, 9-ST, 1-2, 3.12, 1.31, 43.1-IP, 51-K

2025 so far - AA:   5-ST, 4-1, 2.92, 24.2-IP, 7-BB, 34-K

Last five outings –

        4-29 -  4.2-IP, 7-H, 6-ER, 2-BB, 2-K, 86/51

       4-23  -  5-IP, 4-H, 0-R, 1-BB, 10-K, 89/60

      4-17  -  5-IP, 3-H. 1-R, 1-BB, 6-K

      4-11  -  5-IP, 2-H, 1-ER, 1-BB, 9-K

      4-4    -  5-IP, 2-H, 0-R, 2-BB, 7-K, 76/50

FB – 91-94, T-96  18” vertical 13.5” horizontal break  high ¾ arm slot

Changeup/splitter -  best pitch – low/mid 80s  3.9” V  7.21” H

Slider – 94-95  above average ride

Curve – high-70s 

Relies heavily on fastball/changeup combo  50 Grade control

Me? I’m writing off 4/29 as a one-off clunker. I think the Mets have found something special here and I can’t wait to see how the season turns out for him.

Another Binghamton pitcher blocked for a promotion. Not sure where he will finish this season.

ERA -  ASB 2026

 

Jonathan Pintaro – AA

27/years old.  RHP   6-2   235  

2022 undrafted, out of Shorter University (GA)

Mets signed Pintaro after a 2023 season with the Glacier Range Riders, of the Frontier League (Indy)

2024 – A+/AA/AAA – 17-G, 15-ST, 3-6, 2.68, 1.16, 74-IP, 75-K

2025 so far -  B-Mets:  4-ST, 0-1, 2.93, 1.04, 15.1-IP, 7-BB, 22-K                       

Last four outings –

       5-2   -   4.2-IP, 3-H, 2-R, 9-BB, 6-K, 78/51

      4-26  -  5.2-IP, 2-H, 0-R, 0-BB, 9-K

      4-20  -  4-IP, 4-H, 1-ER, 0-BB, 5-K, FB: T-97

      4-9    -  2.2-IP, 2-R. 4-BB

Repertoire has evolved significantly

4-seam  -  93-95, T-97  high spin rate

Cutter  -  89=92  key offering  and most reliable pitch  55 Grade

Sinker  -  added recently  mid-90s  compliment 4-seamer

Sweeper  -  82-85   shows promise

Chamgeup  -  mid-80s   50 grade  

Slider  -  mid-80s   heavy downward action  -16” Vert. break

Strength lies in unpredictability   FB/Cutter mainstay

Look… Pintaro is blocked every way come Sunday. He might as well unpack and enjoy the Binghamton weather (sic).

ETA  -  my guess, due to so many chain upper level starters, 2026 pen

 

Joander Suarez – AA

25/years old   RHP   6-3   235   2017 IFA

Seven seasons  -  87-G, 70-ST, 20-22, 4.20, 1.23, 357.2-IP, 392-K

2025  -  AA  -      3-ST, 0.00, 0.87, 17.1-IP, 17-K

          5/1 – promoted to AAA-Syracuse

Last four outings –

       5-1  (AAA)   -   3-IP, 8-H, 8-ER, 2-BB, 3-K (24.00), 73/45

      4-24  -  5.1-IP, 2-H, 0-ER, 0-BB, 5-K, 47/67

                Now 11.2 scoreless innings to begin the season

      4-18  -  6-IP, 0-H, 0-ER, 0-BB, 6-K

      4-12  -  6-IP, 2-H, 0-BB, 0-R, 6-K

4-seam FB  -  93-95, T-96   above ave. vertical break   Primary pitch

Changeup  -  85-89   best pitch   limited sink  

Curve  -  hi-70s/low 80s   12-6 drop   best secondary pitch

Fastball/changeup combination is key to his game

FB: 50-55   Change:  55   Curve:  50   Control:  45-50 

Boy. Welcome to AAA. Was surprised to see he got this promotion before others. It will be interesting to see how this last outing screws with his head.

ETA -  another guy I think is destined for the 2026 pen

 

Noah Hall – A+

24/years old   RHP   6-0   195

Mets drafted Hall in the 7^th round of the 2023 draft, out of the University of South Carolina.

2024            -   A+/A:   5-ST, 0-2, 9.69, 2.31, 13-IP, 10-BB, 12-K

2025 so far -    

Last two outings –

      4-29 -      5-IP, 5-H, 3-ER, 1-BB, 7-K, 77/52

      4/23 -     4-IP, 7-H, 1-R, 2-BB, 4-K

Fastball  -  91-95, T-96   ¾ slot   50 grade  exceptional movement

Changeup  -  low/mid 80s  70 grade potential  high spin  55% whiffs

Slider  -  mid-80s  high spin rate   45-50 grade

Repertoire centers on FB/change combo

History of back issues

Another of those pleasant surprises we are seeing from the 2023/2024 drafts. I expect Hall to settle in at the Coney and finish the season there. So much blockage will slow down his ETA.

ETA - 2027

 

Joel Diaz – A+

21/years old  -  RHP   6-2   190   2020 IFA

4-seasons -      55-G, 44-ST, 5-10, 3.50, 1.22, 195.2-IP, 203-K

2024   Rk/A -   20-ST, 17-ST, 4.48, 74.1-IP, 71-K

2025 so far -      5-G, 3-ST, 1-0, 0.44, 0.67, 20.2-IP, 2-BB, 25-K

Last five outings –

      4/30   -   5-IP, 3-H, 1-ER, 0-BB, 6-K  (0.44-ERA)

      4/23   -   4-IP, 2-H, 0-R, 0-BB, 5-K, 58/38,

      4/17   -   4-IP, 2-H, 0-R, 1-BB, 4-K, 65/43

      4/11   -   4-IP, 1-H, 0-R, 2-BB, 5-K

      4/5     -   3.2-IP, 1-H, 0-R, 1-BB, 4-K

Fastball  -  92-94, T97   riding life   low vertical approach  60 grade by BA

Changeup  -  mid-high 80s   late fade  most effective secondary pitch

Curve  -  75-77  12-6   dubbed “el yo-yo”   favorite pitch   50m grade

Diaz is human! He gave up a run!

There is no slot currently in Binghamton for him or any other Brooklyn starter. My guess is Hagenman isn’t long for the Syracuse roster, thus opening up a slot there for McLean. Just a guess, but this could create a move for Diaz soon.

ETA - 2026

     

R.J. Gordon – A+

23/year old    RHP   6-0   195

Drafted by NYM in the 13^th round of the 2024 draft, out of the Univ. of Oregon

2025 is his first major league season.

So far this season – Brooklyn:  4-G, 3-ST, 2-0, 2.70, 1.08, 16.2-IP, 6-BB, 20-K

Last three outings –

       5/2  -      4.1-IP, 2-H, 0-R, 3-BB, 4-K, 71/41

      4/25 -      5-IP, 3-H, 1-R, 1-BB, 9-K

      4/20 -      4-IP, 3-H, 2-R, 3-BB, 4-K, 74/47

Limited info on his pitches

Fastball – primary pitch   velo unavailable   probably low-mid 90s

Reliance on breaking pitches… slider, curve

Changeup – used in college to keep batters off balance

Boy, talented pitches just keep coming on this team. I don’t think anyone heard of this guy until his first outing this season. Far too early to project. Need to see how he handles each level.

Mets Internal Options vs. LHH — Some Obvious, Some Fun and Under the Radar:

https://isaacgrofman.substack.com/p/mets-interal-options-vs-lhh-some?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2794019&post_id=162619562&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=gpx5q&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

If they want to get really fun: Ryan Ammons — acquired from the Red Sox via Rule 5 and a former Clemson Tiger — is currently in Brooklyn and has the tools to become a true MLB lefty specialist. His fastball sits around 92 mph but features unique cutting action and elite vertical break for his low arm slot. Despite being just six feet tall, he generates impressive extension, and he pitches with closer-level intensity, even if the raw stuff isn’t quite there yet. His slider has nearly a 40% whiff rate. While walks were an issue in college, he’s looked sharp early this year — 7 strikeouts, just 2 walks, and no runs allowed in his first 5 innings.

 

Picking April MLB All-Star

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6325707/2025/05/01/mlb-april-all-star-teams/

First base — Pete Alonso, Mets

After signing a short-term contract with the Mets last winter that includes two opt-outs, Alonso looks primed to re-enter free agency and capitalize in the fall. The 30-year-old appears to be in great shape and is off to a scorching start, slashing .343/.474/.657 (219 OPS+) with seven homers and 28 RBIs. He’s benefitting from having Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto hitting in front of him; they provide significant traffic when he comes to the plate.

Early MLB takeaways: Best and worst teams

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/44918088/mlb-2025-season-passan-early-takeaways-best-worst-teams-offense-torpedo-bats-trends

New York Mets: They sport the best record in MLB -- and have gotten to the top of the standings despite slow starts from Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo, with Juan Soto still seeking his power stroke. New York's pitching has been nothing short of brilliant, with a rotation leading MLB in ERA by nearly three-quarters of a run at 2.27. And that's without Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, two free agent signings who have spent the first month on the injured list. It doesn't hurt that Pete Alonso was the best hitter in the league in April, and Francisco Lindor is doing Francisco Lindor things, too. There might not be a more electric place to watch a ballgame these days than Citi Field, where the Mets are 13-1 this season.

 

Francisco Alvarez returned with a new goal that helps him fit in with Mets

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6322306/2025/04/30/mets-francisco-alvarez-base-running/

“It’s not about stealing bases,” Alvarez said. “I just want to be a better base runner. I want to go first to third, second to home plate and score from first base on doubles.”

The Mets are baseball’s best at scoring from first base on a double. In the Mets’ 8-3 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Luisangel Acuña scored from first on Tyrone Taylor’s double for the first run. The Mets have scored from first base on a double 16 times. The next-best team, the Athletics, has done it 10 times.

Baseball Reference’s metric, called extra-bases taken percentage, counts the number of times a runner advanced more than one base on a single or more than two bases on a double, when possible. Entering play Tuesday, the Mets ranked third (53 percent) in the majors, behind only the San Francisco Giants (58 percent) and Detroit Tigers (56 percent), the only other teams above 50 percent. Club officials point to personnel knowing Citi Field well enough to know when to take such chances on the bases on balls hit into the alleys and corners of the outfield. Richardson said the Mets have stressed taking better secondary leads this season.

Jim Koenigsberger             @Jimfrombaseball

When Don Zimmer passed, it was revealed that Pedro Martinez had tried to apologize the next day, and Zimmer said:

 "Don’t, it was all my fault."

 

"We expect Satchel Paige to get into shape and be ready to pitch when called upon."

Braves President William C. Bartholomay

62 year old Satchel Paige was just 158 days shy of the five years’ playing time required to qualify for a MLB pension. Satchel reached out to 29 teams to give him just one more chance, and 29 teams turned him down.

In  order to make Satchel Paige eligible to receive his pension, Braves  President Bill Bartholomay signed Paige to a contract running through the 1969 season as the Braves pitching coach. Satchel would actually  suit up and pitch a couple of innings during two exhibition games early  in the spring of 1969, but he’d spend the rest of the season “coaching”  from his living room in Kansas City.

After reaching his 158 required days, Paige left the Braves organization and less than three years later, began drawing that Major League pension.

Satchel Paige received $250 a month for his pension.

 

"Willie Mays scooped the ball up at the base of the 406-foot sign, whirled and fired. It came in on one bounce, directly in front of the plate, and into the glove of catcher Tom Haller, who put it on the astonished Willie Stargell. It was described by old-timers as the greatest throw ever made in ancient Forbes Field.”

Bob Stevens, San Francisco  Chronicle

August 25, 1965

"I couldn’t believe Mays could throw that far. I figured there had to be a relay. Then I found out there wasn’t. He’s too good for world."

Willie Stargell

"People talk about that catch in the 1954 World Series and, I’ve said this many times, that I’ve made better catches than that many times in the  regular season."

Willie Mays

That  1965 season, Willie Mays hit .317, with 52 HRs in a pitcher-dominated  era, so that his OPS+ was 185, for a god-like 11.2 WAR.