12/11/25

ANGRY MIKE: 2025 PROSPECT REPORT: ZACH THORNTON

 ANGRY MIKE 




OVERVIEW:

The Mets drafted Zach Thornton in the 5th round of the 2023 draft, and after a solid professional debut, they decided to challenge the young left-hander during the 2024 season. Thornton was credited for putting in a tremendous amount of hard work during the off-season, which is why he enjoyed a breakout 2025 season, posting numbers as dominant as any other pitcher in the system. If it wasn’t for an abdominal injury that forced him to miss the final month and half of the season, there is reason to believe Thornton would have not only finished the year in Syracuse, he might have even earned a couple starts at the MLB level. 


Thornton posted exponentially better numbers across the board compared to his 2024 season, despite spending the majority of the season facing much more advanced competition. He exuded confidence and navigated through lineups with conviction, and his performances were on par with some of the best pitchers not only in the Mets system, but in the entire minor leagues. Unfortunately for him, the Mets have the deepest collection of high impact starting pitchers in the MLB and a record number of them posted breakout seasons at almost every minor league level. Despite Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and others gaining all of the media attention, Thornton quietly put together as dominant of a season as anybody prior to his injury.







Thornton threw 6 perfect innings in Double-AA, only to watch Tong throw 6.2 perfect frames. Thornton posted an ERA of 1.98 across 72.2 IP, only to watch Tong finish with an ERA (1.43). Thornton dominated hitters  holding them to a .187 BAA, an astounding number for a starting pitcher in AA, only to watch Tong post a .146 BAA. Thornton also showed improved strikeout potential, posting a 29% K-Rate, only to be bested again by Tong’s 40% K-Rate.

Tong posted an incredible 0.92 WHIP, ranking second behind Thornton’s remarkable 0.81 WHIP. Thornton posted a 4% BB-rate which has only been seen one other time by a Mets prospect, Christian Scott, several years ago. The idea isn’t to make this article about Jonah Tong, the point is to show you that Thornton’s season was on par with Jonah Tong’s historic season, which was by far the most dominant season ever by minor league pitcher.

You like what we did there? That’s why Mack calls me a “writer”…











2025 SEASON HIGHLIGHTS:

     14 GS | 72.2 IP | 1.98 ERA | 0.81 WHIP | .187 BAA | 48 H | 11 BB | 78 K 

- 2025 K-Rate (29%) -> (‘24 18%), despite facing more advanced competition 
- 4% BB-Rate was the lowest in MiLB among pitchers with at least 70 IP
- Only other pitcher in the system to throw 6 PERFECT INNINGS in 2025
- Only 1 outing allowed 4 ER -> 2nd lowest to Tong 

- 13 Outings -> allowed 3 ER or fewer -> that’s 93% of his total outings 
- 7 Outings -> ZERO ER allowed
- 2 Outings -> One ER allowed
- 2 outings -> Two ER allowed 
- 9 Outings -> 5+ IP & 6+ strikeouts

- HALF of his outings for the season -> 5+ IP & 3 or fewer hits 
- 6 Outings -> 2 or fewer hits 
- He walked 11 batters total fir the ENTIRE season
- 5 Quality Starts -> 22 IP | 0.41 ERA | 0.50 WHIP | 36 K | 7 H | 4 BB
- 4 Outings -> 21.2 IP -> 8 BB 
- 10 Outings -> 50 IP -> 3 BB 
- 56.1 IP versus RHB -> 59 K | 34 H | 8 BB | .172 BAA | 0.75 WHIP


LHP versus RHB SPLITS:

Z. Thornton: Not Ranked -> 56.1 IP | .172 BAA | 0.75 WHIP

T. White: #22 | Top 100 -> 65.1 IP | .183 BAA | 1.26 WHIP

P. Tolle: #28 | Top 100 -> 72.1 IP | .216 BAA | 1.05 WHIP

N. Schultz: #40 | Top 100 -> 43.1 IP | .320 BAA | 2.03 WHIP

R. Snelling: #51 | Top 100 -> 84.2 IP | .203 BAA | 1.03 WHIP







2026 OUTLOOK:

Thornton has nothing left to prove in AA, and should spend the majority of his 2026 season as part of a formidable Syracuse rotation, that will feature several of the Mets Top Prospects. The only reason we might see Thornton begin the year in AA is if the Mets delay Sproat’s insertion into the MLB rotation for a couple weeks by starting him in Syracuse. It’ll be a house-keeping type move that has him begin the year in AA, it won’t be because he’s not ready to tackle the next level.

2025 highlighted Thornton’s continued evolution into an impact starting pitcher, his velocity spiked up consistently into the low-90s MPH, topping out at 95. Thornton featured a devastating cutter that he used to keep hitters off-balanced, while deploying his above average changeup and slider as his put-away pitches. Watching Thornton’s starts, you’ll notice how he challenges hitters in the zone, and knows how to induce chase to put them away. Thornton excels at using a tactical approach to locate his pitches, for setting hitters up for a potential strikeout or to induce weak contact.

He still has considerable projection left on his 6’4 frame, so there is reason to believe he’ll continue too add a couple more ticks of velocity as fills out and increases strength. Despite not throwing as hard as Top 100 ranked prospects, Thornton posted some of the best splits versus right-handed batters for the season. Four left-handed starters were ranked among the Top 51 Overall prospects and Thornton posted the lowest BAA & WHIP among them all. This might play a crucial role as to how we might potentially see Thornton deployed during the 2026 season, as it might expedite his arrival to Queens, as a potential high-leverage multi-inning reliever.

A.J. Minter’s health remains a question mark, Gregory Soto’s return seems unlikely, and Danny Young is out for the season because of TJ surgery. Even if the Mets add a lefty-reliever this winter, Thornton might be an option to consider for the bullpen when the pennant race heats up. Although Thornton’s future is going to be as a starter, having a dynamic multi-inning RP, with elite control and elite strikeout potential, could be the difference between making the playoffs or making reservations for Cancun. 

The Whitesox utilized Garrett Crochet the same way, and Stearns even deployed Burnes as a reliever during his initial stint in the MLB, so there is historical precedent to use him in this capacity if the need arises. I can tell you with confidence, Thornton will not pull a Frankie Montas, and start whining about having to pitch out of the bullpen, as he’s a competitor who will fill whatever role the Mets need him to, especially if it means competing for a World Series. 

Just watch him pitch and you’ll understand.

Thornton is primed for a huge 2026 and will continue to be one of the more closely watched prospects in our farm system by the “House of Angry Mike”, because of the potential upside he offers and for the fact he has the rare potential to continue improving his future ceiling like our other Top Prospects.













10 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Zach could sneak by Wenninger and behind Tong for a 📞

Tom Brennan said...

Mike, fine summary - will Thornton be the next Frank Viola?

JoeP said...

That works for me Tom.

Paul Articulates said...

Thank you for bringing this to everyone's attention. We have a gem in Thornton.

TexasGusCC said...

Ernest Dove will be commenting on here. He loves Thornton.

Great writeup Mike. You think the lesser velocity would play a role in his availability? Also, talking heads may not know him, but I’m sure other teams do.

Tom Brennan said...

Read this about Frank Viola (lack of) velocity:

Johnny Podres, who had used his changeup to become a World Series hero for the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1955, taught Viola to jam the ball deep into his pitching hand, then throw as if he were unleashing a fastball. "Pod said, 'Think about pulling down a window shade and you'll get a nice, downward motion,' " says Viola. To the hitter, the pitch looks like a fastball as it leaves Viola's hand, but it travels 10 to 12 miles per hour slower.

"Frank's fastball goes 86 to 88 miles an hour—above average," says Such. "But his changeup makes the fastball seem like it's going 92 or 93. And there's more to it than just the difference in speeds. His changeup runs away from a righthanded batter like a screwball would. Then it sinks. So the ball is changing speeds, changing vertical hitting zones and changing horizontal planes all at the same time."

Ernest Dove said...

I dont want it to be his future but with Zach Thornton elite level pitch command, he could be an option for MLB reliever as needed. I could see a battle of sorts between him and Santucci to be a Peterson replacement while the other to pen.

ANGRY MIKE said...

Nahhh, doesn't give off the mustache vibe. Besides he's a lot more aggressive, Viola almost lulled the hitters to sleep. They used to measure he velocity of his curveball with a SUNDIAL...

ANGRY MIKE said...

Thanks Paul!

ANGRY MIKE said...

Agreed, his splits against RHB is also very impressive, he reminds me of a LHP version of Butto, but he has exponentially better command. Unlike Butto, he has a much more aggressive and tactical approach for each hitter, whereas Butto didn't always seem to be have somebody behind the wheel even when the motor was running...