Reese Kaplan -- None of Us Saw That One Coming

If ever you wanted to rile up the Mets fans then you would pull off a trade for the $22 million now former Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert, Jr.  His 2023 season was a thing of beauty but before and after he never approached those levels again.  He can hit for average, can steal bases and owns a Gold Glove for his defensive acumen.  Those are all very good things.

On the down side is both his injury history and inconsistency.  To be fair to the man, he was the primary offensive weapon on a record setting bad White Sox team so he was obviously not going to be getting a lot of prime pitches to hit.  Now he's coming to a still incomplete Mets lineup with hitters like Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Bo Bichette and other newcomers.  He won't be a cleanup hitter.  Is it possible that with some reworking of his swing, good health and a resurge of power that he alone could replace Brandon Nimmo's offensive numbers plus stellar defense and speed?  Yes.  Is is possible he's the next Jose Siri or Cedric Mullins?  Absolutely.  For now he's a great unknown.

By taking on the full contract from the ChiSox the Mets were not asked to give up a huge player bonus to the Windy City.  The primary guy leaving on a jet plane is Luisangel Acuna, a player with strong defense and good base running skills but despite his 4 HR game in Winter ball he's not known for his power.  He didn't really fit into a starting role here so you've given up a part time prospect type of player for someone who's been an All Star.  The other player included was 21 year old pitcher Truman Pauley who has a 3 game career in pro ball.  He's a wildcard.  

The surprise contract awarded to and accepted by Bo Bichette reenergized Mets fans and media types that they are not apparently completely asleep at the wheel after all.  Coming so quickly on the heels of the Tucker deal in L.A. seemed somewhat coincidental, but if it was the market closing on top notch players to motivate the Mets finally to land someone of significance then so be it.  The reaction to securing Robert for a low price has not been as universally positive but we'll wait and see.

Of course, all the good times and extended cocktail hour celebrations on these developments quickly reignited the sometimes ill-placed optimism in how the rest of the off-season would progress.  Mets followers put on their best Steinbrenner style arrogance and began boasting that the next chip to land on the Mets try (and Steve Cohen’s accounts payable ledger) would be the still unsigned solid fielding Cody Bellinger.  We all know what he brings to the table both on the field and at the plate.  His consistency isn’t quite as good as you’d like to see but when he’s on he’s truly one of the best. 

The problem, of course, is that the Yankees would seem to have the inside advantage in negotiating for retaining him, but if you believe the stories floating around that the current offer to secure the return of the former Dodger was limited to $160 million over five years with opt-outs after seasons 2 and 3.  $32 million per year is not pocket change but given the numbers given most recently to Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette it appears a bit light.

The other story gaining traction is that the Yankees are not going to negotiate against themselves and are not considering adding a 6th year as suggested by Bellinger’s camp.  The desire to bring him what would be the last long term deal of his career as he approaches his sunset years in baseball is certainly understandable but no one signing the check likes to have a financial gun held to his head.  Consequently the Yankee position is also equally valid.

So what does that mean for the Mets?  Well, following in the Bo Bichette framework Steve Cohen could theoretically up the annual ante to say $340 million per season for a period of three years with two-way options for years four, five and six.  The actually risk to the Mets would then be limited to $120 million with the opportunity to extend the deal or walk away after his prime playing days have completed.  The overall deal would certainly pay less than what he could get in the Bronx, but it would leave him as a free agent again around age 33, still young enough to get another deal.  If his price dropped to as low as $30 million for the next three year deal, he’d still be looking at 6 years of $210 million versus 5 years at $160.  That extra year is not going to net him $50 million matching dollars anywhere.

There is, of course, a world of possibilities beyond Cody Bellinger, but none of them jump out as being nearly as desirable.  For his exercise we’ll leave out the rushed promotion of Carson Benge and the experimental conversion to outfielder of Brett Baty.  Let’s have a brief look: 

• Miguel Andujar — Way back in 2018 playing for the Yankees Andujar demonstrated solid offense and actually finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting when he hit .279 with 27 HRs and 97 RBIs.  The young right handed hitter looked like a key foundation piece for years to come.  Between slumps, injuries and uneven performance over the next several years he only managed to aggregate 900+ ABs from 2019 through 2024 during which he accumulated 17 HRs and 100 RBIs.  Those numbers would be good if it represented a single year but it was nearly two full years of performance.  Then this past season split between the A’s and the Reds he hit a solid .310 with 10 HRs and 44 RBIs over a little more than a half year’s worth of ABs.  The injury risk is always there and he’s not exactly Gold Glove material in the field, but ending 2025 with a salary of just $3 million.
• Harrison Bader — Well known to the Mets as a good glove/no bat type of player, the story floating around now is that he made offensive adjustments in 2025 split between Minnesota and Philadelphia which led to his season ending with a never before seen .277 batting average and best ever run production with 17 HRs and 54 RBIs.  He had a $4.5 million contract with the Twins who declined his option for 2026 preferring to pay the $1.5 million buyout rather than forking over $10 million.  Which Harrison Bader will emerge for 2026 is a great unknown.
• Jarren Duran — The Boston Red Sox are in need of a player like Brett Baty and it could be the foundation to begin trade talks for their slick fielding outfielder.  The lefty swinger had a decent 2026 with a .256 average accompanied by 16 HRs, 84 RBIs and 24 SBs while offering up formidable defense.  It would likely take more than Baty to get this deal done but many pundits advocate trying hard to make it happen as he has hit for a higher average in the past.
• Austin Hays — Another fringe level outfielder would be free agent Hays.  His 2025 numbers decent but not stellar.  He hit .266 with 15 HRs and drove in 64.  He’s not a top notch fielder but is a bit of a lefty masher and would be an appropriate platoon partner for someone who does the same against righties.  
• Steven Kwan — I’ve written about Kwan in the past.  He is a four time Gold Glove winner and delivers solid offense to accompany his presence in the field.  The lefty swinger is a career .281 hitter with moderate power and good baserunning speed.  He’d definitely be near the top of my list as a decent pursuit in trade if left field remains vacant.
• Ramon Laureano — Splitting 2025 between the Padres and the Orioles, he had a terrific year hitting .281 with a total of 24 HRs and 76 RBIs.  Back in 2019 during his last time as a regular he also clubbed 24 HRs so it’s not a fluke.  The issue is his defense is adequate at best.  At age 31 during the 2026 season you’d have to persuade the Orioles to part with this inexpensive $6.5 million outfielder in trade.
• Jake Meyers — The right handed hitting center fielder for the Astros has been mostly a part time player who is known far more for his glove than for his bat.  Last season he hit an uncharacteristic .292 but his career number is just .243.  He’s slated to hit about 11 HRs and steal 13 bases per year so he’s not going to be an exceptional trade candidate unless you somehow land someone much more impressive in left field.
• Lars Nootbaar  — Another player whose name keeps popping up is the Cardinals lefty hitting outfielder.  While his bat is nothing special, he’s known to be a solid defender.  His career best numbers at the plate include one year hitting .261, twice hitting 14 HRs and his best RBI production was 48.  He doesn’t steal many bases either.  I’d consider him only slightly better than Tyrone Taylor though hitting from the opposite side.