We all know that baseball has evolved significantly from the game we knew a few decades ago. There used to be plenty of room on a roster for players who were capable of slapping a hit through the hole to move the runners or someone who could execute the hit and run without exposing the base runner to an easy caught stealing attempt.
As the advanced metrics evolved and the analysts computed the probabilities of success for those capable of the long ball versus the short ball, baseball’s offensive compensation incentives became very polarized around the home run. For a case in point, look no further than the 2023 season when Jeff McNeil re-tooled his swing for more power despite winning the batting title in the prior season.
With that in mind, the New York Mets went through a fairly significant overhaul in the recent off-season to build a new core that is better positioned to attain the championship that New York fans covet. We were all very clear that David Stearns took a “run prevention” strategy into his re-tool of the roster, but clearly there had to be more variables in the equation than just defense. (They did decide to retain guys like Juan Soto this year).
I took a look at everyone on this year’s 40-man roster and last year’s 40-man roster, and compiled the statistics for everyone that had a major league at-bat.
The results were interesting, but inconclusive. A few highlights from that review:
• The 2025 roster stuck out in 24.3% of their at-bats. The 2026 roster stuck out in 23.1% of their at-bats.
• The two players with the lowest K/AB last season are gone (Azocar and McNeil), but three of the top acquisitions for this season, Bichette, Polanco, and Semien, had better K/AB performance than any of the hold-overs.
• Of the newly acquired players, only Luis Robert Jr. had a K/AB ratio that is not in the top 10.
My conclusion from this analysis, as rudimentary as it sounds, is that good hitting still matters. It is just not the only means to the desired end. Run prevention is essential, whether it comes from good pitching, good defense, or both. But to win, a team must score, and the numbers suggest that this year’s team, while it lacks the total power of last year’s team, still has a better team batting average and a lower K rate. It remains to be seen how this lineup gels and how well the lineup structure facilitates scoring.
9 comments:
I come from a simple game
1. Three strikes and you're out
2. Three outs and pick up your glove
3. Peanuts, popcorn, and NOT tuna rolls
4. The more times you get on base, the more times you cross home
5. The more times you try to hit a home run, the more times you won't
6.
Time will tell. But it is no accident that the two and the less with the lowest strikeout rate are Bo B and Polanco. You can’t have a lineup full of high strike out guys. I think Alvarez will improve if his hands stay healthy Vientos? I’ve offered my solution on many occasions for him to lower his strikeout rate.
Soto’s strikeouts seem a bit high, but it is because he is willing to try to work out, walks at a prodigious pace. No problem there.
Jett Williams, mostly in AA last year, fanned 131 in 130 games. How would that be translating against major league pitching? Poorly, I think.
I guess that is part of the reason the Mets felt he could be moved. Sure, he hit 17 homers, but those strikeouts were relativelyugly for a guy who everyone projected very high in prospect lists. I think little things like that, and that he didn’t hit as well as a number of other past prospects when it came to batting average, makes me suspect of him. Remember, when he hits 260 despite his speed, that has to be considered. A Pete Alonso wouldn’t beat out many infield hits, but you would think that Jett Williams would. So the 260 average to me was concerning.
Juan Soto in the minors, by the way, struck out just once every eight times up as a very young man. Much younger than Mr. Williams. The perspective sheds light on many things.
Tom, over in AA they were quoting his poor EV numbers. It seems like everyine is marginalizing Williams but what I didn’t like was him selling out for power. I’m sure the Brewers will fix that and tell him line drives will keep him in the majors.
Gus, if the Brewers are smart, they’ll do exactly what you said
I bet the situational hitting stats do the current roster are better & some of the retained Mets that don’t hit well with RISP or 2-outs will have less at bats (at least that’s the plan entering the season). The lineup last year was too “all or nothing”. Especially in blow outs (they were awesome) & toss-up /competitive games ;’m(thy were awful).
Paul, you have struck one of my biggest pet peeves in baseball.
The strikeout to me has ruined baseball. It has turned it into a boring game. With the dedication to power and that f***king launch angle, out went the hit and run and stolen base. Because some unqualified nerd wrote up some asinine stats and everyone jumped on board.
It's just common sense. If you strike out 100 times as opposed to 150 times you have 50 more chances to have something positive happen.
If you strike out 50 times less in a season you have 50 chances to knock in a run, move a runner over, or just by putting the ball in play you give your team a chance for the other team to make an error, throw to the wrong base or screw something up.
Nothing good comes from striking out. This is why so few players knock in over 100 runs and the days of players knocking in 135-150 runs a year is extinct.
I believe Jett will have a very productive career. The trade was necessary to get Peralta.
My hope is that the team's construction this year will allow them to play a more exciting brand of ball, with timely hits advancing runners and much more action on the base paths.
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