Paul Articulates – Who stays? Part 4: Starting Pitchers

With a re-designed core and many new players and a deep reserve of prospects, this year’s spring training will become an intriguing competition for spots on the opening day 26-man roster.  

This series will take a look at the players that are in position to compete for a slot on that roster but are not a lock.  We will look at the pros and cons of carrying them with the MLB team when they break camp with the alternative being depth and development pieces in the minor leagues.

Some players are very well established as MLB regulars that are not reasonable candidates for demotion, so for the purposes of this review the following list of players are considered locked down on the MLB Roster:

Infielders: Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Bo Bichette, 

Outfielders: Juan Soto, Luis Robert Jr., Tyrone Taylor

Pitchers: Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley

Catchers: Francisco Alvarez; Luis Torrens

Given this list, and MLB rules that allow only 26 players on the active roster from opening day through August 31st, and that a maximum of 13 pitchers can be listed among the 26 players, there will only be room to carry five more pitchers and five more position players beyond what is listed above.

Today we will take a look at the Starting Pitchers that are vying for some of those five “contested” spots:

Starting Pitchers on the 40-man roster:

Sean Manaea, Jonah Tong, Tobias Myers, Justin Hagenman, Jonathan Pintaro, Christian Scott

Sean Manaea - I wrote about Manaea a month ago, predicting that he would become the comeback player of the year.  Manaea was so good in 2024 when he discovered a way to use a crossfire delivery to create deception.  In 2025 he somehow lost the mechanics on that delivery after recovering from injuries that started with an oblique in spring training.  Well, he is back now and he is healthy.  With all the video from his great season, the technology available in St. Lucie, and a coaching staff that understands how to use the information, why shouldn’t he become what he was?  My prediction is that he will, and he will be in the mix for the fifth starter slot.

Jonah Tong – 2025 could have been the start that propelled Tong into the Mets rotation for the foreseeable future.  Unfortunately, there was that one game against Texas where he was pitted against former ACE Jacob deGrom in front of a sold-out Citi Field crowd.  Tong couldn’t find his release point, suffered an embarrassing six earned runs in 2/3 of an inning.  That game will cause him to start in AAA to get more seasoning before having a run at the MLB level again.  However, let’s remember that he was dominant in the minors last season with a 1.43 ERA in 22 starts across the AA and AAA levels.  That includes 11.2 scoreless innings at Syracuse.  Tong will join the club later in the year for good.

Christian Scott – 2025 was a lost year for Scott, as he recovered from Tommy John surgery.  Before that, he had some impressive outings for the Mets in 2024.  He compiled a 4.56 ERA with 39 strikeouts in just over 47 innings that year after being called up in May.  This year, the Mets will probably start him slowly to build up arm strength and mental confidence.  Depending on how he performs in the spring, that could mean a Syracuse Mets opening day, or a middle relief stint with the New York club.  I am predicting the former, as there are just so many options in play for the five available pitching slots on the active roster.

Tobias Myers – Tobias was the additional player that came over in the Peralta trade, and he was considered valuable enough to help justify the cost (Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams).  The Mets are expecting to get some bang for that buck, and Myers could deliver.  He is not likely to be in the starting rotation on opening day, but if he pitches up to his potential, expect to see him break camp as a middle-to-long reliever with the team.  He could be the first guy to get a spot start if a rotation pitcher can’t go.

Justin Hagenman – Hagenman has seen action for the big league club with a spot start and a few relief outings last season when the primary arms got tired.  He showed well, with a 4.56 ERA over 23 innings (same ERA as Scott in 2024) but was shuttled back and forth between AAA and MLB too many times to get a stable sample of what he could do.  This spring will go a long way in determining how he is viewed by the front office.  My guess is that they will renew his bus pass.

Jonathan Pintaro – Pintaro was a rising star through the low minors and has pitched 18 games at the AAA level to date with fairly good results.  He saw a brief call-up last year but gave up 2 earned runs in 2/3 of an inning so there is no valid measurement for how he stacks up against MLB competition.  Expect him to start the season in AAA.

Starting Pitchers not on the 40-man roster but with spring training invites: RHP Carl Edwards Jr., RHP Kevin Herget, LHP Joe Jacques, LHP Anderson Severino, RHP Robert Stock, LHP Matt Turner, LHP Brandon Waddell, RHP Jack Wenninger

This group includes too many players to delve into individually.  Other than prospect Jack Wenninger who is clearly on a trajectory to make the big league club but probably needs at least another half season in AAA, the rest of this group are second and third chance guys who have been all around the league, or projects that have not made it above the AAAA level.  My prediction is that none of this group makes the active roster on opening day.

This is a lot to process in one post.  Imagine how David Stearns feels trying to sort out an entire organization of pitchers.  To summarize what is said here, I believe that the Mets will carry Manaea as a starting pitcher, vying with Peterson, Holmes, and Senga for the back half of the rotation.  The loser of that battle joins Tobias Myers in the pen as a middle/long reliever with first dibs on starts when one the top 5 in the rotation stumble or get injured.  Tong, Hagenman, Scott, and Pintaro travel north to Syracuse to provide the AAA team with a very strong rotation.