Reese Kaplan -- Another Look at the Real Numbers in the Pen

A great many people have been vocal about the NY Mets bullpen not being ready for prime time despite the changes that have been made.  You can make a number of points about breakthrough potential vs. blow-up potential, but the fact is that there are indeed some reasons to be as optimistic as there is to be stockpiling grain alcohol to help forget what happens late in games.

First of all there is the closer, Devin Williams.  It came as little surprise that David Stearns embraced the former Milwaukee Brewer to replace Edwin Diaz who was off to show how his love for L.A.  If the issue was strictly his career in Brew City.  His ERA and saves numbers were indeed highly impressive there.  It was the major bump in the road during his ill fated year in the Bronx that has many people reaching for their antacids.  When his first game appearance was accompanied by a home run by the first batter he faced it was a splash of gasoline on the already flaming pyre of doubt. 

Of course, no one seems to remember the initial year in Queens for one Sugar Diaz.  He finished his Seattle career with a 2.64 ERA and over 100 saves during that three year span.  Everyone thought the Mets had heisted the best of the best and puffed out their chests in anticipation of what he could do at Citifield.  During his 2019 Mets initial season over 66 games he delivered a 5.59 ERA with just 26 saves and a 1.379 WHIP.  Yet somehow people forget all about that.

By contrast, Devin Williams delivered a 1.83 ERA over a span of 241 games with a WHIP of just 1.023 spanning six seasons.  In his one year as a Yankee he delivered a 4.59 ERA with 18 saves and a 1.129 ERA over 67 games.  Are we noting his performance in his bad year was better than what the Mets got from Diaz in his?  Are we also noting that the Diaz career ERA including the Mariners and the Mets is an ERA that is highly impressive at 2.56 and a WHIP of 1.036 looks quite good.  However, for his career with the Brewers and Yankees poor little Williams has a 2.45 ERA and 1.045 WHIP.  Like the unsung Mark Vientos vs. Brett Baty, sometimes looking at the real numbers makes all the difference in the world.   

Behind the closer, you have Luke Weaver inked to a new deal as well.  Forgetting his fugly starting pitcher numbers, as a reliever the past few seasons Weaver delivered 126 games of highly credible bullpen performance with a 3.21 ERA and a WHIP of 0.969.  If he can replicate those kinds of stats for the Mets he will make everyone from Steve Cohen to David Stearns to Carlos Mendoza very happy indeed.

The returning of Brooks Raley is already an accepted good third member of the relief corps for the end of ballgames.  After that it becomes a bit more unpredictable, but when the slow-track recovery of AJ Minter will allow him to return in May then you have another extremely solid setup guy in the mix. 

One of the more interesting options the Mets are entertaining is the minor-league contract holding former All Star closer, Craig Kimbrel.  At age 37 his velocity is not exactly what it once was and placing him on the major league roster will require expunging someone else from it to make room.  Still, a career with 851 major league games Kimbrel owns a 2.58 ERA and has fanned 1282 batters in less than 822 innings pitched.  While he may not be the man earning the saves anymore, the fact is his track record is so spectacular that having him in the major league bullpen fortifies what could already be an impressive top five pitchers.  Add in long reliever and spot starter Tobias Myers and you already have a pretty impressive top six when you include Minter.  Throw in big lefty Bryan Hudson whose career numbers are better than you’d expect for a late addition and you have the makings of a fine pen. 

After that it’s certainly open to debate.  It could be a last gasp for veteran Luis Garcia.  It could be a return of the up and down performance of Huascar Brazoban.  It could be any of a few other AAAA types. 

On the whole I’d have to give the bullpen remake at least a B+ with an A- possible mostly on the arm of Devin Williams returning to his Milwaukee form.