Reese Kaplan -- Mets in the Cellar But Number One in Something

Suppose you are in the middle of a scathing and vicious fight for the division pennant and find yourself down at least one significant starting pitcher.  With June now here and the July final four weeks of evaluation to soon take place this consideration will have you scoring a wide variety of metrics as you ascertain whose arm will give you the push towards the top of the divisional heap.  For purposes of this exercise, of course, we’re talking about teams with strong winning records, not the Mets.

As opposing GMs weigh who will or won’t help them propel towards October baseball, a great many factors go into this analysis.  Obvious markers include won/loss record which is perhaps a pointless metric given that second division teams do not win a lot of games no matter how good the targeted pitcher might be.

Another key statistic is ERA.  Think back to the days in which Jacob deGrom used to play for the Mets and when healthy you knew he was going to be more than stingy at allowing opposing runners to cross the plate.  Whether or not a target’s team is winning or losing, ERA is a rock solid clue as to how successful a pitcher really is.

More recently WHIP has become a sign of how good a pitcher is at keeping runners off base.  The combination of (Walks + Hits)/Innings Pitched lets you see how effective a pitcher is at keeping the bases clear. 

Then there are the financial implications.  A pitcher traded in the middle of a long term contract has a financial hit on team payroll not just for the remainder of 2026 but also for however many years remain on his deal.  The flip side are pending free agents who are in effect a much more appealing transaction as the payroll hit ends in 2026. 

We could go on and on about looking at batting average against, walks, hits, strikeouts and various other metrics but for our oversimplified consideration here we’re looking at pitchers who won’t cost a fortune in terms of money, who keep runners off base regularly and who keep them from crossing the plate.  One other factor is trend analysis to see how the hurler has performed recently over the past several games rather than unfairly weighing earlier season struggles against one or more metrics compensate how highly you evaluate this pitcher.

As the best of the 29 other GMs make this evaluation, suppose they found a pending free agent earning just $8 million dollars and owning a 3.38 ERA.  Freddy Peralta has to be at or damned close to the number one position on the score sheets of opposing team talent evaluators.  He has number one starter talent and is paid like a back of the rotation arm with no financial hit beyond the final two months of the 2026 season.  That’s a combination of factors that is indeed hard to beat. 

Now Mets fans will be irate if the club goes ahead and deals away one of the few bright lights of this horrific season, but you have to be realistic.  If you can add a top notch prospect or two for a two month rental of a guy who is not going to propel you from the basement to the penthouse, then you certainly have to hear what the incoming offers include.  Bear in mind that by doing nothing you have no guarantee that Peralta will return to the Mets nor at what cost.  Consequently many would say getting something is certainly preferable to getting nothing.