While the Mets 2026 season has been a horsehide version of a dumpster fire in every way possible, let’s reflect back for a minute on what was envisioned when the games started counting for real after Spring Training concluded.
First, there’s the run prevention defensive alignment. After an uneven Port St. Lucie February and March, fans were expected to believe the following was the right approach created by POBO David Stearns after losing the trio of Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Diaz.
First base was now going to belong to one-game veteran at the position, Jorge Polanco. Most National League fans didn’t have a firm grasp on what type of player Polanco could be on a regular basis and surely a 40% discounted price for him for fewer years was somewhat palatable compared to the Orioles’ deal for Alonso, but in his best ever season he’d only tallied 33 HRs and 98 RBIs while hitting .269. Last year after fighting through some injuries he rebounded with 25 HRs and 76 RBIs while hitting .265. These numbers were certainly a steep drop off from the five time All Star who now plays in Baltimore.
Second base was now going to be helmed by Marcus Semien, a former star player whose strong defensive skills were unquestioned but whose offensive numbers have been in decline. Sending Brandon Nimmo away to get Semien seemed more about payroll dollar commitment than projected team value.
Shortstop Francisco Lindor was a no brainer. Everyone knew what he could do in the field, at the plate and on the basepaths.
Third base was kind of an eleventh hour twist when career shortstop Bo Bichette was obtained to play third base in a kind of latter day Alex Rodriguez joining the Yankees move with Derek Jeter entrenched at short. Bichette was coming off a big bounce back year where he hit a glowing .317. Having missed out on other key bats like Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and Cody Bellinger having come off the board, the Mets needed to save face and everyone found Bichette a very respectable alternative. The run prevention theme didn’t match, however, as Bichette was most definitely not known for his glove though third base is less challenging defensively than shortstop.
Then the roof caved in on the Mets. Polanco got hurt. Lindor got hurt. Semien stayed mostly healthy but was hitting in the low .220s and a healthy Bichette in the same territory. Those injuries led to both Brett Baty and Mark Vientos who were slated to be backups now getting regular playing time. Oddly, Vientos holds a small edge on Baty for OPS though his defensive shortcomings more than hollow out the value of that achievement.
Now the team is getting very close to the return of Jorge Polanco and perhaps by the end of this month Francisco Lindor as well. The Lindor move is an easy one with Vidal Brujan clearly being paid to return to Syracuse. However, the Polanco addition to the active roster is more unclear.
Most folks have reported that between the Achilles heel and wrist injuries the Mets are planning to allow Polanco to be a DH to put less strain on his still recovering body. If so, that development still leaves the question about who to cut loose to make room. The four likely candidates include the aforementioned duo of Baty and Vientos, but also AAAA players like Eric Wagaman and M.J. Melendez. Given the lack of options for the first two it would seem that the latter pair are the ones likely on the hot seat. You could throw Jared Young’s name in there as well but right now he is one of the few hitters on the roster actually creating offense.
If you assume Young being left handed would get the majority of the games as the first base starter and Polanco as the DH against all pitching, that would return Vientos to the bench with Baty soon to follow when Lindor returns.
The question is should the Mets look to move on from both Baty and Vientos by the early August trading deadline or do they instead clean house with more desirable players being traded away like Bo Bichette who can opt out at year’s end anyway?
Stay tuned...
16 comments:
Jared Young (15 for 48, 3 HR) is one of the few to come in and really hit. What a relief. Torrens up to .233 is not bad, either.
Syracuse got no hit last night, so I am guessing it is safe to assume that Polanco and Alvarez went hitless. Maybe two more games, and they get two more offensive upgrades over Melendez and Senger.
Christian Scott is now the ace of the staff. More good news. 2.50 ERA.
The pen also doing well.
And Bichette is suddenly hot.
Hmmm…
In the “Guys deteriorate with age” category, add Manny Machado. Soon to turn 34, up 250 times, hitting .175. Signed for huge bucks thru 2033!!
I'm looking at the positives.
1. the Mets now have their outfield
2. Jared Young
3. Luis Torrens is heading all NL catchers in +DRS
4. Christian Scott may be real
5. Austin Warren
6. Freddy Peralta has settled in
7. A.J. Minter
8. Huascar Brazoban
Hopefully Polanco can still hit when he returns quasi-banged up sometime next week.
I’m fine with Baty & Vientos riding the bench. Let’s see what Young can do. He is hitting so he should play.
Unfortunately, at least for the Mets & playing at this version of Citi Field (Tom), Baty & Vientos have seats listed that this is who they are…. Occasional hot streaks but cannot persist at mlb average production for sustained periods.
Trade them as add ons to get better prospects.
I can bear watching them attempt to “establish themselves” as Maggie leaguers one more season. Time to move on.
Who would want Baty or Vientos?
Polanco did not deliver before he got hurt. I can't get excited about his return. Torrens is playing very well behind the plate and getting some timely hits for the team. I can't get excited about Alvarez returning and going 0-34. Young is playing very well at first right now, so I would ride him as long as that lasts.
I like that there are legitimate positives emerging. We have a quality outfield of 3 right now. We are on our way to a pitching staff dominated by youthful starters and veteran relievers. We have to fill in gaps overall in the staff, which will have to be a mixture of trade and free agents. As I've written before our infield is a mess made worse by uncertainty. Jared Young has earned time at 1B. There is no point in trying even to establish Vientos trade value at the position. Same with Baty at 3rd. The infield can and should be stabilized with Bichette (who is actually untradeable and will not opt out after this season), and Young at 1B for bulk of remainder of season, Semien and Lindor. But we have big issues on right side of infield next year that will last for a couple of years at least and may have issues soon thereafter on left side of infield.
Baty and Vientos should be traded by deadline. They literally have no future on this team and I wish them well. Good guys, but... not better than average major leaguers. McLean and Scott will be around next year and thereafter, barring injuries. Expect Tong to develop and join them by next year. I expect Santucci, who may have the best stuff overall of the lot to join at some point next year, and others who are likely to be capable of major league performance in the hunt to do so as well.
The problem is not so much whether we will be decent this year; the main challenge is seeing how much value you can get for people on the major league roster now who should not be next year. Preliminary list: Peralta, FA SP, Peterson, FA, RP, Manaea, UContract, Senga Ucontract, SP. Baty, Vientos, UC, IFs; Robert, IL, IL, IL OF, team option. Alvarez, UC, Catcher.
That is a lot of players who really need to go, and collectively add little salary relief, if any, since you will have to pay some of Manaea's and maybe Senga's contracts, and you are only paying 8M for Peralta this year.
Others who may or may not be on the team, but don't figure in future plans, once season ends: Melendez, Wagaman, Taylor, and back-up catcher of your choice.
Of those that need to go, Peralta, Peterson and Robert have to go by deadline and Manaea, and Senga should be traded by deadline if good deals are in the offing, otherwise they will be gone during offseason as part of trades that involve more than one Met prospect joining them to make a worthwhile net positive trade. Baty and Vientos may be better left for offseason as well as they will play useful back-up roles this year to fill out the team and can be part of larger packages that are easier to work out in the offseason because they take more time.
Alvarez is special case. I dont know what anyone sees in him at this point. Tom focuses on strkeouts rightly as a metric of potential. Look at Alvarez's rehab performance. He can outstrike out Clifford every day of the week. He is stubborn, and as I reported earlier, this is the view on the inside as well. But he is young, enthusiastic and a catcher. Teams always need catchers and few of them have also been identified as #1 prospect in all of baseball. Shows you what talent evaluators don't see.
He should be able to bring back something valuable especially if paired with minor league pitching depth and either a Vientos or Baty, but who knows actually what other teams will view as a valuable overall package.
These are pla
Young looks like he wants that first base job and should be a keeper if he continues to hit.
While I agree that Polanco and Alvarez are upgrades over Melendez and Senger, Alvarez is NOT an upgrade over Torrens, and that is who he will replace in the starting line-up, and that is a net loss IMHO. If he sits on the bench, he loses value for the inevitable trade. If Polanco can't perform well or regularly due to injury as DH, we already have DH replacements in Vientos and Baty (when Lindor returns), both of which are comparable to what Alvarez can produce, which isn't much. The strike outs among the 3 means so many unproductive outs.
Christian Scott IS real.
Their parents still do.
Why worry about Torrens losing at bats? I mean, after all, how long will it be before Alvarez is on the injured list again?
If Ryan Clifford could hit as well as he is currently hitting in AAA, in the major leagues, that would be acceptable. However, I remember Travis.Taijeron a similar player, who was I think a slightly better hitter, being called up by the Mets and Fanning about 45% of his at bats. To me, Clifford is at least a year away. We can all pretend otherwise.
Everything has a price. I agree with RVH that their value is as an add on in a larger trade as they are major league ready (i.e. they have no minor league options). That means they have to be packaged with prospects to bring back --- prospects. So what you will almost certainly have to do is to trade prospects for other prospects around a different goal. There are two such goals with the Mets: positional and time alignment. Here's the problem. Their current time alignment issue is infielders. A team trading to get Vientos or Baty obviously needs infielders now and into the near future, just when the Mets do! Teams need 3B, e.g. the Phillies. Intra division rival though. Baty could fit well there or in Miami, a team with no power. I don't know where Vientos fits because the stats say he literally has no position that he does not play at below league average. He is at best a third piece in a trade.
It is a useful assessment tool -- especially for fans who want to be honest with themselves -- to ask themselves whenever the fan is trying to figure out how good one of their team players is, what would other teams give up specifically for him, and why. I can see a team wanting Baty and willing to give up a prospect far from the majors with potential, especially if Baty fills a role on an otherwise competitive team. Match him with a Manaea or a Senga and you can get two such prospects.
I would hope to get a pitcher and an outfielder with that time alignment. We are uncertain about what the future pitching prospects will provide in our org who are four or five years away. We could always use high ceiling prospective pitchers in that time frame. We could also use outfielder prospects across the next two time frames.
Is he likely to hit as well as Young is hitting, or play with as much poise. We have to see how Young does for the remainder of the season and maybe next year which would give Clifford, who is still quite young, an opportunity to create some consistency and improve his K rate. I'm still dubious about whether he would win the impending competition with Guzman if it comes down to that. Especially if the latter can cut down on his K rate.
Short term, maybe keep Baty as he can platoon with Semien at 2B once Lindor gets back. But trade him at deadline if there is any value to be received in return. Otherwise wait until offseason.
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